The following forecast is provided by Joe Kravitz, the  instructor for the Introduction to Meteorology course, since there are no classes at BCC today due to Veteran’s Day:

Summary: A cold front will move through late tonight into the morning hours with a band of rain and showers that will end our spell of unseasonably mild weather. As colder air moves in behind the front, the precipitation may end as a brief burst of snow, snow “pellets” (graupel), or sleet during the mid to late morning, particularly over the higher terrain. However, accumulations will be limited as the ground is warm from our recent warm weather, surface air temperatures will be above freezing and any frozen precipitation will only fall for a brief period, although it may come down fairly hard for a time. Behind the front, a very large area of surface high pressure will build into the region. This will result in a prolonged period of fair and seasonably cool weather, with those stable weather conditions prevailing for the remainder of the week and possibly into next weekend.

Monday Night

Increasing clouds with rain and showers developing around 3 am. Probability of precipitation near 100%. Rainfall totals near 0.25 inches in most locations.

Temperatures remaining very mild, holding in the 50s, for most of the night, but dropping precipitously through the 40s after 4 am as the cold front moves through. Temperatures will be in the upper 30s in most locations by morning.

South-southwesterly winds at 10-15 mph, backing to west-northwesterly around 4 am with passage of the cold front.

Tuesday

Rain and rain showers early, possibly ending as a brief period of snow, snow pellets (graupel) or sleet in the mid to late morning, particularly over the higher terrain. All precipitation should end by noon or 1 pm at the latest. Probability of precipitation near 100%. Total melted liquid equivalent will generally be between 0.15 and 0.25 inches. Any snow/sleet accumulations will be mostly on grassy surfaces and mostly over elevated terrain and should measure one inch or less. Skies will begin to clear about an hour or two after precipitation ends and it will become mostly sunny by mid-afternoon.

Temperatures will continue to fall into the mid 30s in lower elevations and low 30s over elevated terrain through the morning hours. As precipitation ends and the sun comes out during the afternoon, temperatures will rise several degrees. High temperatures will be near 40 in Pittsfield, near 40 to the low 40s in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, low 40s in South County and mid to upper 30s in the elevated terrain and hilltowns, depending on elevation.

Northwesterly winds at 10-15 mph in the morning, diminishing during the afternoon and becoming light by evening.

Tuesday Night

Clear and seasonably cold.

Low temperatures in the low 20s in most locations.

Light (less than 5 mph) northwesterly winds.

Wednesday

Mostly sunny and seasonably cool.

High temperatures in the low 40s in Pittsfield, low to mid 40s in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, mid 40s in South County and upper 30s to near 40 over elevated terrain and the hilltowns, depending on elevation.

Light north-northwesterly winds.

The following forecast is provided by Patrick Connors, in conjunction with the  instructor, as part of lab work for the Introduction to Meteorology course:

Summary: Surface high pressure is building into the region today with sunny skies and seasonable temperatures as large scale descent in the atmosphere limits any cloud formation. The high pressure system will crest over us on Saturday resulting in another nice autumn day. As high pressure begins to drift to our east late Saturday and Saturday night, a warm front will push through the region as warm air from the south is lifted over cooler air over our region by the return flow (south-southwesterly winds) around the back side (western side) of the high (clockwise flow around high pressure). The rising warm air will generate cloud cover Saturday night. However, the air is very dry and it is unlikely that there will be enough condensation associated with the front to generate precipitation although there is the slight chance of a light shower or sprinkle as the front moves through Saturday night. Once the front passes, the door will be open for warm air to our south to flood into the region on Sunday and Monday. Skies will clear on Sunday and temperatures will soar to much above average highs (Average is mid 40s) into the 60s. Temperatures will likely reach into the 60s with sunny skies on Monday as well. As the high pressure system drifts further east, a cold front will move through with a round of showers on Tuesday and return our temperatures to seasonable levels. Following that frontal passage, a strong autumnal high pressure system will build into the region to give us fair weather with seasonable temperatures through the remainder of the week and possibly into next weekend.

Friday Night

Clear in the evening with some increase in cloudiness after midnight, becoming partly cloudy by morning.

Low temperatures generally in the low 30s but near 30 in the elevated terrain. There may be some lows in the mid 30s in South County.

Northwesterly winds at 5-10 mph in the evening, becoming light after midnight.

Saturday

Partly cloudy (25-50% cloud cover….more sun than clouds) for the majority of the day. Clouds will begin to increase later in the afternoon and it will become mostly cloudy near sunset.

High temperatures near 50 in Pittsfield, near 50 to the low 50s in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, low 50s in South County and mid to upper 40s in the elevated terrain and hilltowns, depending on elevation.

Light northwesterly winds in the morning, becoming light and variable in the afternoon.

Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy. There is the slight chance of a few scattered sprinkles or light showers. Probability of precipitation 20%. Any precipitation will likely not be measurable but will certainly be less than 0.05 inches.

With cloud cover and mild, higher dewpoint air moving in on southerly breezes, it will be unseasonably mild. Low temperatures near 40 in most locations with some low 40s in South County.

Light southerly winds.

Sunday

Mostly cloudy early in the morning, clearing quickly and becoming mostly sunny by mid to late morning. Unseasonably mild.

High temperatures near 60 in Pittsfield, near 60 to low 60s in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, low 60s in South County and mid to upper 50s over elevated terrain and the hilltowns.

South-southwesterly wind at 5-10 mph.

The following forecast is provided by Nick Carll, in conjunction with the  instructor, as part of lab work for the Introduction to Meteorology course:

Summary: The coastal storm is weakening and drifting off to the east a bit quicker than anticipated. As a result, it appears that Berkshire County is going to receive a little less in the way of accumulating snow than previously forecast.  It now looks as if there will only be an inch or less in the northwest parts of the county, with generally 1-3 inches in most locations. 2-4 inches is likely in the elevated terrain to the south and east (e.g. Otis and Becket). The storm will continue to drift slowly to the east tomorrow so it should remain mostly cloudy with only an isolated snow flurry or snow shower. Surface high pressure will then build in for Thursday night and Friday and give us clear skies. Temperatures will also finally begin to moderate as the cold trough which has been over us for the past several days finally weakens and lifts out to our northeast. This will allow a warmer ridge in the atmosphere to build in over the Northeast through early next week. In fact, temperatures will eventually reach well into the 50s and possibly even the 60s by Sunday and Monday before a cold front moves through on Tuesday.

Wednesday Night

Overcast with occasional, mostly light, snow likely through the evening, tapering to scattered flurries and snow showers after midnight. Probability of precipitation near 100% but only 80% to the northwest. Total snow accumulation an inch or less in northwestern parts of the county (e.g. Williamstown). Most of the rest of the county will receive 1-3 inches with 2-4 inches in the elevated terrain to the south and east (e.g. Otis and Becket).

Temperatures will not drop much with the overcast skies with low temperatures holding in the mid 20s.

Northerly winds at 10-20 mph with some gusts to 30 mph, particularly over elevated terrain.

Thursday

Mostly cloudy and blustery with a chance of a lingering flurry or snow shower, mostly in the morning.

Temperatures will be seasonably cold with highs upper 30s to near 40 in Pittsfield, near 40 in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, low 40s in South County and mid 30s in the hilltowns.

North-northwesterly winds at 10-20 mph.

Thursday Night

Becoming clear and seasonably cold. Still a bit breezy.

Low temperatures generally in the low to mid 20s, near 20 in the elevated terrain.

Northwesterly winds at 10-15 mph in the evening, diminishing to 5-10 mph toward morning.

Friday

Mostly sunny and milder.

High temperatures in the mid to upper 40s in Pittsfield, upper 40s in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, near 50 in South County and mid 40s over elevated terrain and the hilltowns.

Northwesterly winds at 10-15 mph for most of the morning, diminishing over the course of the afternoon, becoming light by evening.

The afternoon NAM model run has come in and is more in line with the GFS in terms of precipitation. I will stick with a 2-5″ total snow accumulation with as much as 6″ in some of the hilltowns. The lowest totals should be in the lower terrain to the north and west (i.e. North Adams and Williamstown) and higher amounts in the elevated terrain and hilltowns to the south and east (i.e. Otis, Becket, Peru, Windsor). Most of the accumulations will occur between late afternoon and midnight tomorrow.

The following forecast is provided by the  instructor (Joe Kravitz) of the Introduction to Meteorology course alone (student forecasts on Monday, Wednesday and Fridays):

Summary: The track for the coastal storm which will affect our region tomorrow through Thursday depicted in the computer forecast models is now fairly convergent with the surface low, now located off the North Carolina coast, strengthening as moves north off the coast of New Jersey tomorrow. The storm then weakens and slows down dramatically overnight Wednesday and through Thursday, moving to just southeast of Cape Cod on Thursday, as it becomes cut-off from its jet-stream energy source. However, the surface impacts of this weakening process vary considerably between the models. All of the models have the storm far enough to the east and weak enough that the air is cold enough for mostly snow. However, the NAM model has the precipitation shield completely fall apart over southern New England tomorrow night as the storm weakens with Berkshire County getting virtually no snow. The European model (ECMWF) is proprietary and is only available in limited form. Therefore, I am unable to visualize precipitation quantities being generated by this model.  However, the position and strength of the surface low is quite similar to the GFS model and this scenario appears most realistic to me at this time. Therefore, with the caveat that this is a relatively low confidence forecast……snow will most likely develop sometime during the afternoon tomorrow and may be moderate at times into the evening. Accumulations will be somewhat limited by the early season, with asphalt surfaces still relatively warm and the ground still as yet unfrozen. However, it has been quite cold over the past few days. Most likely accumulations are 1-4″ by tomorrow evening, with the higher range totals in southeastern portions of the county and at higher elevations with the lower totals in the lower elevations to the northwest. The steady snow should tail off during the evening with only scattered snow showers after midnight and during the day on Thursday. An additional inch or two accumulation is possible. It is still possible that a little sleet could mix in to the south and east late tomorrow night into Thursday. Since this forecast is still in flux I will update with an addendum as the model runs from this evening come in and the satellite and radar loops give a better indication as to how the storm is progressing…..

Tuesday Night

Clear early with increasing clouds after midnight.

It will be cold, but not as cold as Monday night due to some cloud cover and a bit of a breeze after midnight. Low temperatures in the low to mid 20s.

Calm in the evening. Northeasterly winds developing and increasing to 5-10 mph toward morning.

Wednesday

Increasing and lowering and thickening clouds with snow likely developing during the afternoon, generally light but moderate at times. Probability of precipitation 70%. Accumulation by evening (7-8 pm) will likely range from 1″ in the lower elevations, particularly in the northwest portions of the county to as much as 4″ in the higher elevations in southern and eastern portions.

It will remain fairly cold, with high temperatures in the mid 30s in Pittsfield, mid to upper 30s in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, upper 30s in South County and low 30s over elevated terrain and the hilltowns. Temperatures will fall toward freezing as the snow begins.

North-northeast winds at 8-12 mph in the morning increasing to 10-20 mph and shifting to the north during the afternoon.

Wednesday Night

Any steady snow diminishing to scattered snow showers toward midnight. Probability of precipitation 60%. An additional inch or two of accumulation possible overnight.

Low temperatures generally in the upper 20s with mid 20s in the elevated terrain.

Northerly winds at 10-20 mph.

Thursday

Mostly cloudy, blustery and still fairly cold with scattered snow showers. Some sleet may mix in at times. Probability of precipitation 50%. Less than an inch additional accumulation.

High temperatures in the upper 30s in Pittsfield, near 40 in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, low 40s in South County and mid 30s over elevated terrain and the hilltowns.

Northerly winds at 10-20 mph.

The following forecast is provided by Joseph Botto, in conjunction with the  instructor, as part of lab work for the Introduction to Meteorology course:

Summary: Surface low pressure, originally associated with Sandy, has finally moved far enough away (through the Canadian Maritime and into the North Atlantic Ocean) to allow surface high pressure to move in from the west. This will result in clear skies tonight and tomorrow before the next storm moves up the East Coast on Wednesday. As surface high pressure builds over Berkshire County tonight and becomes centered directly over us tomorrow, skies will become clear due to the large scale descent in the atmosphere associated with the surface high. Winds will also become calm tonight and remain light tomorrow as the pressure gradient becomes weak near the center of the high. With clear skies, calm winds and dry (dewpoint of 16 deg. F) air in place we will have an ideal radiational cooling night tonight and temperatures should drop into the teens countywide. Light winds and a low sun angle tomorrow will prevent us from breaking the radiation inversion (colder near the ground and warmer aloft) that develops by morning. Therefore, despite plentiful sunshine, it will remain unseasonably cold tomorrow with temperatures remaining in the 30s in most locations. It may creep into the low 40s in South County by afternoon. Although Tuesday night will again have ideal radiational cooling conditions early, clouds will begin to increase towards morning and a light easterly breeze will also develop. Therefore, temperatures will not be quite as cold as tonight but will still drop well into the 20s.

A weak surface low pressure system presently over the lower Mississippi Valley will gradually rotate around the base of the trough (southern dip) in the jet stream, along with the upper-level disturbance that is generating the surface low, into a location more favorable for development on the eastern side of the trough and out over the Gulf Stream by Wednesday. As a result, the surface low will deepen rapidly from a central pressure of 1008 mb on Tuesday evening to 990 mb by Wednesday evening when it will be located off the New Jersey coast. Conditions do not appear to be as favorable for development as they appeared a few days ago and, as such, it does not appear that this Nor’easter will be nearly as strong as looked like it might get earlier. The pressure gradient will be fairly strong and so the winds will be strong, but not nearly as strong as with Sandy. To put things in perspective, the record low central pressure with Sandy was 940 mb (compared with 990 mb for this storm). The big forecasting question is what type of precipitation we will get in Berkshire County from late Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning AND how much we will get. A storm track to our east, with the surface low moving just to the east of Cape Cod and into the Gulf of Maine that this storm will follow is the classic track for a snowstorm, with us in the colder air to the northwest of the low. That would definitely be the case if this were winter. However, ocean water temperatures are still in the 50s and as the warmer air over the ocean circulates around the low and rides up over the cold, low-level air over Berkshire County, it could create a warm enough layer aloft to cause the snow to change to sleet. That is how things looked earlier. However, the European model (ECMWF) run from this morning has the storm a little farther to the east with our precipitation remaining all snow. This model has been the best in recent years. In addition, the most recent (1 pm) GFS model run shows a similar scenario. This would result in us getting all snow but getting less. Given this trend, all snow appears to be most likely but with a relatively light accumulation (e.g. 2-4″). However, with this scenario, we would be right on the western edge of the precipitation shield and so the forecast has a large degree of uncertainty with still 48 hours before the storm arrives. Even a slight shift in the projected storm track could change the forecast dramatically. More to come tomorrow…..

Monday Night

Clear, calm and cold.

Ideal radiational cooling conditions will permit temperatures to drop into the teens countywide. Low temperatures will be in the upper teens in most locations with mid teens in the usually colder valleys.

Light northwest winds becoming calm after midnight.

Tuesday

Mostly sunny and cold.

Temperature will remain in the 30s in most locations despite plentiful sunshine. However, it should feel warmer than the actual temperature with light winds and sunshine. High temperatures in the upper 30s in Pittsfield, near 40 in Williamstown, Adams and North Adams, low 40s in South County and mid 30s in the elevated terrain and hilltowns.

Winds light and variable.

Tuesday Night

Clear early with some increase in clouds after midnight. The clouds will mostly be high clouds but some mid-level clouds could arrive before morning.

It will be cold, but not as cold as Monday night due to some cloud cover and a bit of a breeze after midnight. Low temperatures in the low to mid 20s.

Calm in the evening. Easterly winds at 5-10 mph developing after midnight.

Wednesday

Partly cloudy in the early morning with increasing clouds, lowering and thickening, throughout the day. Snow likely developing late afternoon to early evening. Any accumulation should be light (an inch or two at most by evening).

It will remain fairly cold, with high temperatures in the mid 30s in Pittsfield, mid to upper 30s in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, upper 30s in South County and low 30s over elevated terrain and the hilltowns.

Northeast winds (NAWEASTAH) increasing to 10-20 mph by afternoon.