Berkshire County Forecast-Tuesday, November 6

The following forecast is provided by the  instructor (Joe Kravitz) of the Introduction to Meteorology course alone (student forecasts on Monday, Wednesday and Fridays):

Summary: The track for the coastal storm which will affect our region tomorrow through Thursday depicted in the computer forecast models is now fairly convergent with the surface low, now located off the North Carolina coast, strengthening as moves north off the coast of New Jersey tomorrow. The storm then weakens and slows down dramatically overnight Wednesday and through Thursday, moving to just southeast of Cape Cod on Thursday, as it becomes cut-off from its jet-stream energy source. However, the surface impacts of this weakening process vary considerably between the models. All of the models have the storm far enough to the east and weak enough that the air is cold enough for mostly snow. However, the NAM model has the precipitation shield completely fall apart over southern New England tomorrow night as the storm weakens with Berkshire County getting virtually no snow. The European model (ECMWF) is proprietary and is only available in limited form. Therefore, I am unable to visualize precipitation quantities being generated by this model.  However, the position and strength of the surface low is quite similar to the GFS model and this scenario appears most realistic to me at this time. Therefore, with the caveat that this is a relatively low confidence forecast……snow will most likely develop sometime during the afternoon tomorrow and may be moderate at times into the evening. Accumulations will be somewhat limited by the early season, with asphalt surfaces still relatively warm and the ground still as yet unfrozen. However, it has been quite cold over the past few days. Most likely accumulations are 1-4″ by tomorrow evening, with the higher range totals in southeastern portions of the county and at higher elevations with the lower totals in the lower elevations to the northwest. The steady snow should tail off during the evening with only scattered snow showers after midnight and during the day on Thursday. An additional inch or two accumulation is possible. It is still possible that a little sleet could mix in to the south and east late tomorrow night into Thursday. Since this forecast is still in flux I will update with an addendum as the model runs from this evening come in and the satellite and radar loops give a better indication as to how the storm is progressing…..

Tuesday Night

Clear early with increasing clouds after midnight.

It will be cold, but not as cold as Monday night due to some cloud cover and a bit of a breeze after midnight. Low temperatures in the low to mid 20s.

Calm in the evening. Northeasterly winds developing and increasing to 5-10 mph toward morning.

Wednesday

Increasing and lowering and thickening clouds with snow likely developing during the afternoon, generally light but moderate at times. Probability of precipitation 70%. Accumulation by evening (7-8 pm) will likely range from 1″ in the lower elevations, particularly in the northwest portions of the county to as much as 4″ in the higher elevations in southern and eastern portions.

It will remain fairly cold, with high temperatures in the mid 30s in Pittsfield, mid to upper 30s in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, upper 30s in South County and low 30s over elevated terrain and the hilltowns. Temperatures will fall toward freezing as the snow begins.

North-northeast winds at 8-12 mph in the morning increasing to 10-20 mph and shifting to the north during the afternoon.

Wednesday Night

Any steady snow diminishing to scattered snow showers toward midnight. Probability of precipitation 60%. An additional inch or two of accumulation possible overnight.

Low temperatures generally in the upper 20s with mid 20s in the elevated terrain.

Northerly winds at 10-20 mph.

Thursday

Mostly cloudy, blustery and still fairly cold with scattered snow showers. Some sleet may mix in at times. Probability of precipitation 50%. Less than an inch additional accumulation.

High temperatures in the upper 30s in Pittsfield, near 40 in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, low 40s in South County and mid 30s over elevated terrain and the hilltowns.

Northerly winds at 10-20 mph.