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Our low overcast and small temperature range will persist for the foreseeable future, as a strong temperature inversion in the lower levels of the atmosphere (50°F at 5000 feet) prevents vertical mixing and the low sun angle and cloud cover prevent any heating of the surface. Meanwhile, a weak surface low pressure system over the Midwest will drift slowly northeastward through the eastern Great Lakes over the next few days. The occluded and cold fronts extending southeastward from the low will move through our area Tuesday evening. The associated precipitation will be predominantly in the form of rain. However, surface temperatures will be close to freezing in the higher elevations so there may be some pockets of freezing rain there. 

As a secondary surface low forms along the front junction between the occluded and cold front in the Gulf of Maine on Wednesday, the northwesterly flow around this low will produce some “wrap around” and lake enhanced showers during the afternoon on Wednesday. Temperatures will be cold enough aloft for these to be snow showers but the boundary level temperatures may be warm enough in the lower elevations for wet snow mixed with rain or even plain rain. Even in the elevated terrain snowfall accumulations should be less than an inch.

After this, the polar front (boundary between cold air to the north and warm air to the south), which is weak and zonally oriented (west to east) for this time of year, will stall well to our south, and very weak surface high pressure will build in from the north and west. As a result, temperatures will be seasonable and the weather will be dry until at least Saturday. The inversion will be gone so, hopefully, we will get some sunshine. However, with the jet stream in its weak and zonal form, systems will be weak and, thus, sunshine is unlikely to be bountiful.

It looks like a surface low will develop along the polar front on the Gulf Coast Friday night and early Saturday and then move off the North Carolina coast Saturday night. Right now, it appears that, with the jet stream having such a zonal orientation, the trough in the jet stream wave pattern responsible for generating this storm will remain fairly “flat” and non-amplified so that the storm will have a tendency to move more east than north and well off the coast to our south. However, given that this event is six days away, the track of the low is still uncertain….I plan to update this on Wednesday.

Monday Night

Overcast.

Low temperatures in the mid to upper 20s, upper 20s in South County and mid 20s over the elevated terrain.

Winds light and variable.

Tuesday

Overcast and seasonably cold. There is a chance of a little drizzle or a few sprinkles, particularly during the afternoon. Any light precipitation that falls will likely be freezing drizzle over the elevated terrain and there could even be a few pockets of freezing drizzle in the lower elevations.

High temperatures in the low to mid 30s in Pittsfield, Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams, and Williamstown; mid 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; near 30 to low 30s over the elevated terrain.

Light southeasterly winds.

Tuesday Night

Rain and showers developing during the early evening and continuing off and on throughout the night. Temperatures will be close to freezing in the elevated terrain where the precipitation may fall as freezing rain during the evening hours. There may also be a few spots in the lower elevations in central and northern Berkshire where the precipitation begins as freezing rain as well. Precipitation should become all rain as temperatures rise above freezing after midnight, even over the elevated terrain. Probability of precipitation 90%. Likely rainfall totals 0.25″-0.40″. Likely ice totals over the elevated terrain around 0.10″ in spots.

Steady temperatures in the evening, near freezing over the elevated terrain and low 30s over the lower elevations of central and northern Berkshire and low to mid 30s over the lower elevations of South County. Temperatures should rise above just above freezing in the elevated terrain after midnight so that temperatures should be in the low to mid 30s everywhere by morning. 

Light easterly winds in the evening, shifting to northwesterly by morning.

Wendesday

Overcast with a few scattered rain showers likely early. Some mixed rain and snow showers are likely mid to late afternoon. These showers should be all snow over the elevated terrain and mixed rain and wet snow in the lower elevations. Probability of precipitation 60%. Likely rainfall totals 0.10″ or less and there may be a dusting of snow in spots over the elevated terrain late.

High temperatures in the mid to upper 30s in Pittsfield, Lee and Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; upper 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; low to mid 30s over the elevated terrain. 

Light west-northwesterly winds in the morning, increasing to 5-10 mph in the afternoon.

under: Berkshire County Forecasts

I am sorry but I will not be posting a forecast today. It is a very difficult forecast that would require a great deal of time input to make accurately and I have a great deal of grading and schoolwork to accomplish today. Sorry again…..

under: Berkshire County Forecasts

The following forecast is provided by Ryan Vandervoort and Amanda Kerswell  as part of lab work for the Introduction to Meteorology course (ATM-145) under faculty (Joe Kravitz) supervision. The forecast discussion is mine (JK) ……

The polar front and associated jet stream are aligned across the northern U.S., and Berkshire County, in a fairly zonal (flat, west-east configuration). As a result, relatively weak systems will move through fairly quickly, with alternating surface high and low pressure systems through Monday. Monday night into Tuesday and amplifying trough in the jet stream wave pattern will be digging to our west. This will create a significant change to our weather for next week. Surface low pressure will likely develop off the Mid-Atlantic coast in response to this trough. The trough in the wave pattern will then become so amplified that that the wave will “break” and low pressure will become “cut-off” from the main jet stream flow to our north. With this cut-off low over us, essentially what we will have is a cold pool of air aloft spinning counterclockwise (upper-level low pressure) and the surface low which developed in response to this upper-level process stalling somewhere from New York city to Long Island or off the southern New England coast and then weakening and moving slowly northeast. Since the ECMWF (European) model has been consistent with this event, as well as our last storm on Thanksgiving, I am, once again, inclined to believe this model’s scenario, which goes as follows….The low develops off the Mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday morning and moves north and stalls for a time over Long Island/NYC Tuesday night. The low then weakens and moves SLOWLY northeast over the next few days, not reaching the Gulf of Maine until during the day Thursday or Thursday night. It is still too early to tell precipitation type or amounts, in particular since we will be near the rain/snow line and this will be a very complicated system. However, there is the possibility of a heavy snow event, particularly over the elevated terrain sometime from Tuesday through Wednesday. Obviously, I will update this forecast on Monday…..

That being said, we also have some weather issues in the near term. Surface high pressure is departing to our east and a weak surface low pressure system and its associated warm front are approaching from the Midwest. There is cold air at the surface and as the warmer air associated the the warm front overrides this cold air we will receive a mixture of precipitation overnight tonight. After a few scattered light snow showers early this evening, steady precipitation should begin around 8 pm or so. The precipitation should start as snow but turn, fairly rapidly to freezing rain in the lower elevations, where only a coating to an inch (at most) of snow should accumulate. 1-2″ is possible over the elevated terrain to the east where it will likely stay snow a bit longer. After the changeover, freezing rain will change to plain rain in the lower elevations by midnight or so but will likely continue over the elevated terrain. There could be a light coating of ice in the lower elevations before the changeover, with around 0.10″ over the elevated terrain. Since snow will fall first, the roads should be mostly slushy, as opposed to glazed, and there should not be enough ice for widespread power outages. Rain/freezing rain will taper off sometime between 3 and 5 am and there will be a relative pause in the precipitation until it becomes steady again around 9 or 10 am. By that point, temperatures should be above freezing everywhere and we will have off an on rain for most of the day Saturday. Rain may mix with and then change to snow briefly before ending Saturday evening as colder air comes in behind the departing low, but there should only be a coating to perhaps as much as an inch over the elevated terrain. It will then turn breezy and colder and surface high pressure will move in for Sunday, making the second half of the weekend sunny but fairly cold.

Friday Night

A few scattered snow showers early, then a burst of steady snow arriving around 8 pm or so. Snow will change to freezing rain within a few hours. Snow accumulations a coating to 1″ in the lower elevations and up to 2″ over the elevated terrain. Freezing rain will likely change to rain in the lower elevations by the early morning hours but will likely continue over the elevated terrain. Significant ice accumulation is not expected in the lower elevations but about 0.10″ is likely over the elevated terrain. Rain/freezing rain will taper off between 3 and 5 am. Probability of precipitation near 100%. Likely total rainfall (liquid equivalent) 0.25″-0.40″.

Temperatures near freezing this evening will rise above freezing in the lower elevations by midnight or so and low to mid 30s by morning. Temperatures will remain at or near freezing over the elevated terrain.

Easterly winds at 5-10 mph this evening, becoming light southeasterly after midnight.

Saturday

A few scattered light rain showers or drizzle early. Steadier off and on rain developing around 9 or 10 am and continuing throughout the day. Probability of precipitation near 100%. Likely rainfall totals 0.25″-0.50″.

High temperatures in the upper 30s in Pittsfield, Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams, and Williamstown; near 40 in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; mid 30s over the elevated terrain.

Light winds veering from southeasterly early to northwesterly during the afternoon.

Saturday Night

Rain may mix with and briefly change to snow before ending during the evening. A coating of accumulation is possible, with as much as 1″ over the elevated terrain. Skies will remain mostly cloudy, clearing around daybreak, and it will turn breezy and colder.

Low temperatures in the low to mid 20s.

North-northwesterly winds at 5-10 mph in the evening, increasing to 10-15 mph after midnight.

Sunday

Sunny but a bit breezy and rather cold.

High temperatures in the upper 20s to near 30 in Pittsfield, Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; near 30 to low 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; mid 20s over the elevated terrain.

North-northwesterly wind at 10-15 mph, decreasing to 5-10 mph during the afternoon.

under: Berkshire County Forecasts

The following forecast is provided by Cindy Bird and Connor Lein  as part of lab work for the Introduction to Meteorology course (ATM-145) under faculty (Joe Kravitz) supervision. The forecast discussion is mine (JK) ……

Out weather will be relatively tranquil, with seasonable temperatures, for the next two days, as surface high pressure builds in from the Midwest tonight and Thursday and then crests over the region Thursday night. As the high approaches, cold west-northwesterly winds blowing across the Great Lakes will generate a few lake-effect snow bands tonight and tomorrow. However, it looks like nothing more than a few flurries for Berkshire County as these bands rotate through. The high will move to our east on Friday as a weak surface low pressure system and its associated warm front move through Friday night and Saturday. Precipitation from that event should be fairly similar to what we saw last night and today, with relatively light snow changing to sleet and freezing rain Friday night, transitioning to plain rain by Saturday morning. Saturday looks like a rainy day as the low lolligags along through.

The long-range models suggest surface high pressure will build in briefly for Sunday, so part of the weekend should be salvaged. However, both the U.S. (GFS) and European (ECMWF) models develop a coastal low pressure system in response to an amplifying trough in the jet stream wave pattern for early next week. The timing and appearance of this scenario looks complicated, so I will update this on Friday. However, it looks like there is the possibility for at least some snow for Berkshire County for the Monday through Tuesday period.

Wednesday Night

Variable cloudiness, breezy and seasonably cold. There is the chance of a few scattered snow flurries. Probability of precipitation 30%. There should be nothing more than a light dusting in a few isolated spots over the higher terrain.

Low temperatures in the mid 20s, low 20s over the elevated terrain.

West-northwesterly winds at 10-15 mph.

Thursday

Mostly sunny and breezy early. Becoming mostly cloudy by mid-morning. Colder. There is the slight chance of a snow flurry during the early to mid-afternoon. Probability of precipitation 20%. No snow accumulation expected. Winds should lighten during the afternoon and skies will likely clear late.

High temperatures near 30 in Pittsfield, Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams, and Williamstown; low 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; mid to upper 20s over the elevated terrain.

West-northwesterly winds at 10-15 mph in the morning, decreasing to 5-10 mph during the afternoon.

Thursday Night

Mostly clear, calm and cold.

Low temperatures in the mid teens.

Clam winds.

Friday

Increasing cloudiness with the slight chance of a light snow shower or flurry late.

High temperatures in the low 30s Pittsfield, Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; low to mid 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; near 30 over the elevated terrain.

East-southeasterly winds at 5-10 mph.

under: Berkshire County Forecasts

Snowfall totals look to be a bit higher than forecast yesterday. I now expect snowfall totals to be 6-10″ by evening and 8-14″ total.

under: Berkshire County Forecasts

An update for tomorrow’s snowstorm:

It looks like the snow may arrive slightly earlier than it appeared yesterday. Otherwise, there is not much change. Snow should develop from south to north across the county sometime between 7 and 9 am. Snow will then continue throughout the day and into the evening. The snow will vary somewhat in intensity but will be heavy at times, particularly during the afternoon. Snow will begin to taper off during the evening and then end sometime around midnight, to as late as 2 am. It still appears that likely snowfall totals will be 6-12″ with the greatest amounts in the elevated terrain to the east in central and southern Berkshire. I am basing my totals predominantly on the European model which has been pretty consistent with this storm. However, the U.S. models have been making the storm “wetter” and wetter the last few runs. If those models are correct, we could end up with a widespread 12-16″. However, I am inclined to believe that 6-12″ is more likely. I will post again if I see a distinct change in the situation with tonight’s model runs.

Tuesday Night

Increasing clouds and turning colder, with a chance of light snow or a snow shower toward morning. Probability of precipitation 30%. No accumulation expected.

Low temperatures near 30.

West-northwesterly winds at 5-10 mph, becoming light north-northwesterly after midnight.

Wednesday

Snow developing from south to north between 7 and 9 am and then continuing, heavy at times, throughout the day. Becoming breezy during the afternoon. Probability of precipitation near 100%. Likely snowfall totals by evening 4-8″.

Temperatures holding fairly steady, or even falling a few degrees, throughout the day, in the upper 20s in Pittsfield, Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams, and Williamstown; near 30 in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; mid to upper 20s over the elevated terrain.

Northeasterly winds at 5-10 mph during the morning, becoming northerly at 10-15 mph during the afternoon.

Wednesday Night

Snow during the evening, tapering off and then ending sometime around midnight to 2 am. It will be cold and breezy. Probability of precipitation 80%. Likely total snowfall accumulations 6-12″, with the greatest amounts over the elevated terrain to the east in central and southern Berkshire.

Low temperatures in the low to mid 20s.

Northerly winds at 10-15 mph in the evening, shifting to northwesterly after midnight.

Thursday

Mostly cloudy and cold.

High temperatures near 30 in Pittsfield, Lee and Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; low 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; mid to upper 20s over the elevated terrain.

Northwesterly winds at 5-10 mph.

under: Berkshire County Forecasts

The following forecast is provided by Kim Grahn and Nick Staffin  as part of lab work for the Introduction to Meteorology course (ATM-145) under faculty (Joe Kravitz) supervision. The forecast discussion is mine (JK) ……

Unfortunately for anyone hoping to travel for Thanksgiving, it looks like Berkshire County, as well as a good portion of the Northeast, is in for a significant snowstorm on Wednesday. Unlike some coastal storms, this is a fairly high confidence forecast. It is unlikely that the storm will miss us completely, or change to rain. My best estimate 48 hours out is that we will see a fairly widespread 6-12″ accumulation, with the heaviest amounts over the elevated terrain in central and southern Berkshire.  Snow will likely spread from south to north across the county Wednesday morning, in the 8-11 am period, and then continue, heavy at times, through the afternoon and into the evening, tapering off in intensity during the evening hours, and then ending by midnight, or shortly thereafter. This will be a fairly quick moving storm, but it will be potent, with snow falling at an inch per hour at times.

As a curiosity to those interested in such things, the European model (ECMWF) has been incredibly consistent since Friday night with the track and intensity of this storm. The U.S. models were all over the place until coming into line with the European model between Sunday and Monday…..

The surface low that dragged its moisture laden warm front through here late last night and this morning has moved northward into northwestern Quebec. We are now, briefly in the “warm quadrant” of this storm until the cold front trailing southward from the low inches through here during the day on Tuesday. Tuesday will remain fairly mild but not as warm as today. As the cold front, which signals the leading edge of another cold trough in the jet stream wave pattern, moves through, it will stall just off the coast Tuesday night. A surface low pressure system will then develop along the front, just off the Southeast Coast, overnight Tuesday. It will then move rapidly northeastward along the front and intensify during the day on Wednesday, reaching Cape Cod by Wednesday evening, and then into the Canadian Maritime region overnight Wednesday.

After the low pulls out, the cold trough will move slowly eastward, becoming centered over our region by Friday morning. Therefore, cold will return for Thursday and Friday. High temperatures will likely remain in the 20s both days, with lows Thursday night in the teens. With a fresh snow cover an clearing skies, temperatures could drop into the single digits by Saturday morning. Temperatures should then moderate over the weekend with temperatures back in the 40s by Sunday.

I will update the forecast for Wednesday’s storm tomorrow afternoon……

Monday Night

Clearing, except for a veil of high, thin clouds. Unseasonably mild.

Low temperatures in the mid 40s.

South-southwesterly winds at 10-15 mph this evening, becoming southwesterly at 5-10 mph after midnight.

Tuesday

Sunshine through a veil of high, thin clouds.

Temperatures holding fairly steady throughout the day, with high temperatures in the upper 40s in Pittsfield, Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams, and Williamstown; near 50 in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; mid 40s over the elevated terrain.

West-southwesterly winds at 8-12 mph.

Tuesday Night

Increasing clouds and colder, becoming overcast by morning.

Low temperatures near 30, upper 20s over the elevated terrain.

Westerly winds at 5-10 mph, becoming light northwesterly after midnight.

Wendesday

Snow developing from south to north across the county during the morning, most likely during the 8-11 am time period. Snow, heavy at times through the afternoon and into the evening, tapering off during the evening and ending around midnight or during the early morning hours. Probability of precipitation 90%. Widespread snow accumulation of 6-12″ likely.

High temperatures in the low 30s early in Pittsfield, Lee and Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; low to mid 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; near 30 over the elevated terrain. Once snow develops temperatures will likely fall into the upper 20s, mid 20s over the elevated terrain.

Light northwesterly winds in the morning, shifting to north-northeasterly and increasing to 5-10 mph in the afternoon.

under: Berkshire County Forecasts

The following forecast is provided by Ryan Mercer as part of lab work for the Introduction to Meteorology course (ATM-145) under faculty (Joe Kravitz) supervision. The forecast discussion is mine (JK) ……

The cold trough in the jet stream wave pattern centered over our region will, finally, lift out and allow warmer air south of the jet stream to work its way in, as a ridge builds over us for Sunday and Monday. Surface high pressure will crest to our south tonight and then begin to move off the coast during the day on Saturday. As a result, we will have fair skies tonight and Saturday, with slightly milder temperatures on Saturday. A weak warm front, extending well to the east from a surface low pressure system in the northern Great Plains will lift slowly through Berkshire County late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. This will result in occasional light scattered showers. Things could get a little tricky as temperatures will likely be around or just below freezing at the surface over a good part of the county, particularly over the elevated terrain until about midnight, when the front finally pushes through and temperatures rise above freezing. Therefore, the precipitation is likely to be sleet and freezing rain for a time during the evening. Even though temperatures will be close to freezing and the precipitation will be light, the ground is probably below freezing given how cold it has been. Therefore it won’t take much freezing rain to create some slippery spots.

After the front passes, it will be milder on Sunday, with a mix of clouds and sun and temperatures in the 40s. Meanwhile, a stronger surface low pressure system moving north from the Gulf Coast will merge with the one moving east from the Great Plains and move through the Great Lakes Sunday night. This stronger low will drag another warm front through here after midnight Sunday and into Monday morning. We will see a period of heavier rain with this stronger front, on the order of 0.50″, and this precipitation will be all rain, with temperatures well above freezing. After the front passes through on Monday, temperatures will soar to near 60 degrees. 

On Tuesday, the cold front trailing south from the surface low departing into Canada will begin to move slowly east as another amplified trough in the jet stream moves back over us with colder air for Wednesday through Friday. As the cold front moves through on Wednesday, a surface low pressure system will develop along it, off the Mid-Atlantic coast, and move northeastward. The European model has been bringing this low close enough to the coast that we see a few inches of snow here on Wednesday but the U.S. long-range model (GFS) has it further off the coast, so that we don’t get any precipitation. I will update this situation on Monday…….

Friday Night

Mostly clear and cold. 

Low temperatures in the mid teens, low teens over the elevated terrain.

Westerly winds at 5-10 mph this evening, becoming light southwesterly after midnight.

Saturday

Mostly sunny in the morning, increasing cloudiness with the chance of a light sleet or freezing rain shower late. Probability of precipitation 30%. 

High temperatures in the mid 30s in Pittsfield, Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams, and Williamstown; mid to upper 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; low 30s over the elevated terrain. However, temperatures will fall back to near freezing after sunset.

Southwesterly winds at 5-10 mph.

Saturday Night

Cloudy with occasional, scattered light showers likely. The precipitation should fall as sleet and then freezing rain during the evening and then change to plain rain after midnight. Probability of precipitation 60%. Likely rainfall totals around 0.10″.

Temperatures will be at or just below freezing in the lower elevations before midnight and upper 20s to near 30 over the elevated terrain. Temperatures should rise above freezing everywhere after midnight.

Southwesterly winds at 5-10 mph, becoming light after midnight.

Sunday

A mix of clouds and sun and milder. There is likely to be more clouds than sun to the north and more sun than clouds to the south.

High temperatures in the mid to upper 40s in Pittsfield, Lee and Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; upper 40s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; low to mid 40s over the elevated terrain. 

Light southwesterly winds, shifting to southerly in the afternoon.

Sunday Night and Monday

Increasing cloudiness Sunday evening with rain developing just after midnight and continuing into Monday morning. Rain should taper off by mid-morning. Low clouds and some occasional sprinkles and drizzle will likely persist into the afternoon. Overnight lows near 40 will occur in the evening, with temperatures rising through the 40s after midnight. Highs on Monday in the mid to upper 50s.

under: Berkshire County Forecasts

The standing, amplified jet stream wave pattern persists, with a ridge over the eastern Pacific and western North America and a trough over central and eastern North America. This is permitting unusually cold arctic air over the central to eastern U.S. to be repeatedly reinforced as cold arctic pools of air slide south into the base of the trough. This pattern has persisted since last week. One of these pools of arctic air is residing over us today and tomorrow. As this unusually cold air flows over the still warm Great Lakes on strong westerly winds a band of heavy lake-effect snow is being generated and persisting to the south of Buffalo. Four feet of snow have already fallen and up to six feet may fall by the time winds shift and weaken tomorrow.

The next reinforcing shot of arctic air will be moving in from Thursday night into Saturday. Then it looks like the pattern will change, at least temporarily, as the trough lifts out on Saturday, the jet stream pattern flattens out (becomes zonally [west to east] oriented) and a milder ridge builds in for Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will likely reach the 50s on Monday. However, it looks like the cold trough may re-establish itself over the eastern U.S. again by mid-week next week.

It will be quite cold tonight, with temperatures falling into the low to mid teens with wind chills near zero. However, the strong westerly winds will limit radiational cooling and keep us from getting anywhere near the record low temperature of 6° F. Surface high pressure will build in from the south tomorrow and this will keep skies mostly sunny but it will remain unseasonably cold despite the sunshine. There is the chance for a few snow showers Wednesday evening as a weak “warm” front moves through the county. This warm front is extending eastward from a weak surface low pressure center being generated over the Great Lakes by the next pool of arctic air diving into the base of the trough. Once the warm front moves through it will be slightly milder on Thursday with temperatures rising into the 30s. However, as the surface low in the Great Lakes rides northeast along the eastern edge of the trough it will drag its trailing cold front through here during the day on Thursday. The frontal passage will not generate any precipitation but temperatures will, once again, drop down into the teens Thursday night and only rise into the 20s on Friday.

Tuesday Night

Mostly clear, breezy and unseasonably cold.

Low temperatures in the mid teens, low teens over the elevated terrain and mid to upper teens in South County. Wind chills in the single digits.

West-southwesterly winds at 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph.

Wednesday

Mostly sunny and continued cold but with diminishing winds.

High temperatures in the upper 20s in Pittsfield, Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; near 30 in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; low to mid 20s over the elevated terrain.

West-southwesterly winds at 10-15 mph early, diminishing to 5-10 mph and then becoming light late in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night

Becoming overcast with a chance of a snow shower in the evening. The greatest chance will be in North County. Clearing skies after midnight. Probability of precipitation 30%. A dusting of snow is possible in a few spots, predominantly in North County.

Low temperatures near 20.

South-southwesterly winds at 5-10 mph.

Thursday

Mostly sunny in the morning, a mix of sun and clouds in the afternoon. Slightly milder than previous days.

High temperatures in the low to mid 30s in Pittsfield, Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; mid 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; near 30 to low 30s over the elevated terrain.

South-southwesterly winds at 5-10 mph in the morning, shifting to west-southwesterly and then westerly during the afternoon.

under: Berkshire County Forecasts

The forecast for the upcoming “storm” has not changed greatly from Friday. However, I would like to give a detailed forecast for the timeline of events as I see it…..

It looks like the precipitation should move in a little earlier than it appeared a few days ago, with snow developing from south to north between 1 and 3 am tonight. It looks like we should get a quick “burst” of snow that lasts for an hour or two, which then changes to rain and freezing rain between about 3 and 6 am from south to north. It looks like we should get a fairly widespread snow accumulation of around 1″ with perhaps only a coating in parts of South County where the changeover to liquid precipitation will likely occur sooner. There could be as much as 2″ in a few spots over the elevated terrain, in North County in particular. There most likely will only be intermittent light rain and freezing rain or drizzle from between around 6 or 7 am til around 9 or 10 am. Temperatures should remain fairly close to freezing during this period. It will likely be at or just above freezing in the lower elevations and at, or just below freezing in spots over the elevated terrain. I suspect the roads during the morning will just have a bit of slush on them due to the combination of snow with a little freezing rain on top over the elevated terrain and they may just be wet if the road surfaces are treated, which I suspect they will be given the “Winter Weather Advisory” which has been issued by the National Weather Service. At lower elevations the main roads will probably just be wet, with a little slush on the secondary roads. Given that snow will fall first, it is unlikely that an icy glaze will form, particularly this early in the season, even though it has been quite cold lately.

The precipitation should change to plain rain everywhere in the county by noon or 1 pm and temperatures will likely rise into the 40s from late afternoon into the evening. Rain will fall, moderate at times, from late morning through late afternoon, and then taper off and end during the evening. Temperatures will begin to plummet late in the evening, once the surface low passes and drags its cold front through. However, precipitation should end well before temperatures fall back below freezing. Hopefully, roads will have a chance to dry a good deal before the drop in temperatures but there could be some icy spots on Tuesday morning. A band of lake-effect snow showers will likely set up over the county on Tuesday morning so there could be a dusting of snow in spots as well. However, the main story for Tuesday, and on through Wednesday as well, will be the unusual cold for this time of year. Temperatures should hold steady in the 20s during the day on Tuesday, with winds picking up to 15-25 mph. During the afternoon, the temperatures will begin to fall through the 20s and into the teens by evening with wind chill temperatures falling into the single digits.

Sunday Night

Overcast with snow developing from south to north between about 1 and 3 am. A quick “burst” of snow is likely before a changeover to rain and freezing rain from south to north between about 3 and 6 am. Rain, freezing rain and/or drizzle becoming light and intermittent by 7 am. Probability of precipitation 90%. Likely snowfall totals before the changeover generally about 1″ with only a coating in some parts of South County and as much as 2″ in spots over the elevated terrain in central and northern Berkshire. 0.10″ or less of icing.

Low temperatures in the upper 20s.

Light south-southwesterly winds, shifting to east-southeasterly after midnight.

Monday

Light and intermittent rain, freezing rain and drizzle until between about 9 and 11 am. Temperatures will be close to freezing, likely at or just above in the lower elevations and at or just below over the elevated terrain during this period. Rain becoming moderate at times from late morning through the remainder of the day. Precipitation becoming plain rain countywide by early afternoon. Probability of precipitation near 100%. Likely rainfall totals around 0.50″. Up to 0.10″ of icing possible in spots over the elevated terrain.

Temperatures near freezing during the morning, rising through the 30s and into the 40s during the afternoon and into the evening.

East-southeasterly winds at 5-10 mph, shifting to south-southwesterly during the afternoon.

Monday Night

A few lingering rain showers and mild during the evening, then mostly cloudy, becoming breezy and sharply colder. A few scattered snow showers and flurries are possible after midnight. There could be a dusting in spots.

Low temperatures in the mid 20s, low 20s over the elevated terrain.

West-southwesterly winds at 5-10 mph early becoming west-northwesterly and increasing to 10-15 mph after midnight.

Tuesday

More clouds than sun, windy and unseasonably cold. A few scattered snow showers and flurries are possible in the morning. Probability of precipitation 30%. There could be a dusting in spots.

Temperatures will hold steady into the afternoon with high temperatures in the mid 20s in Pittsfield, Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; mid to upper 20s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; low 20s over the elevated terrain. Temperatures will fall through the 20s over the course of the afternoon and into the teens by evening with wind chill temperatures falling into the single digits.

Westerly winds at 10-20 mph, with gusts to 30-35 mph.

 

under: Berkshire County Forecasts

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