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The cold front moving through today will usher in slightly cooler, but much drier air. We will see a fair amount of sun, particularly during the afternoon, on Friday so temperatures will still be above normal, in the 60s. However, dew points will drop from the mid 60s today to around 50 tomorrow so that it will feel considerably cooler that it has for the past few days.

A series of mid/upper-level disturbances (cold pools) in the jet stream flow pattern will rotate through the base of the trough setting up over the eastern U.S. during the day on Saturday. This will result in a deepening of the trough, with much cooler air from Canada, accompanying the disturbances, plunging into the trough and directly over the Northeast on Sunday. Scattered showers will be triggered by the first of these disturbances, ushering in the cooler air, as it moves directly over us on Saturday. It will then turn partly cloudy, breezy and much cooler on Saturday night and Sunday as the axis of the cool trough in the jet stream becomes almost directly centered over us during the day on Sunday. Even though, with a breeze, there will not be ideal radiational cooling conditions Sunday night, the air over us will be so cool and dry that, if you have yet to get a killing frost, you will likely get one Sunday night as temperatures drop into the mid to upper 20s.

Past that, the weather for next week, as opposed to the way it looked a few days ago, is starting to look very inclement. Both of the mid to long-range models, the U.S. GFS model and the European ECMWF model are converging on a solution that would have a very vigorous mid/upper-level disturbance dive into the trough set up over us and deepen and elongate the trough so much that, essentially, the wave trough “breaks” free from the main jet stream and becomes “cut-off” over southern New England. As a result, this solution indicates that a surface low pressure system will develop off the southern New England coast on Tuesday and then stall there as the entire low pressure system, from the surface to the tropopause, becomes cut-off from the upper-level westerlies. If this occurs, we could see an off and on cool/cold rain or showers from Tuesday or Wednesday through the remainder of the work week.

Thursday Night

Mostly cloudy, cooler and drier, although temperatures will still be above normal. There is the slight chance of a light shower. Probability of precipitation 20%.

Low temperatures in the low 50s.

Light southerly winds this evening, shifting to southwesterly and then westerly overnight.

Friday

Decreasing cloudiness in the morning. Partly cloudy in the afternoon. Much less humidity than previous days but it will still be quite mild for mid-October.

High temperatures mid 60s in Pittsfield; mid to upper 60s in Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams, Williamstown, Great Barrington and Sheffield and; low 60s over the elevated terrain.

Light west-southwesterly winds in the morning, becoming south-southwesterly at 5-10 mph in the afternoon.

Friday Night

Partly to mostly cloudy.

Low temperatures near 50.

Light south-southwesterly winds.

Saturday

Increasing cloudiness in the morning. Mostly cloudy in the afternoon. There is the good chance of a shower, mostly light, during the afternoon. Probability of precipitation 50%.

High temperatures near 60 in Pittsfield, Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; low 60s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; mid to upper 50s over the elevated terrain.

Southwesterly winds at 5-10 mph, shifting to westerly and increasing to 10-15 mph late.

Saturday Night and Sunday

Partial clearing, breezy and much cooler Saturday night, with low temperatures in the mid 30s. Partly cloudy, breezy and unseasonably cool on Sunday. High temperatures averaging in the mid 40s. Killing frost likely Sunday night with lows in the mid to upper 20s.

under: Berkshire County Forecasts

The front is moving slightly faster than originally anticipated so it looks like the rain will come to an end early to mid afternoon.

under: Berkshire County Forecasts

Southerly flow around the back side of the subtropical high pressure system (Bermuda High) off the Atlantic Coast is pumping unseasonably warm and moist air into Berkshire County. As a result, we will have very warm temperatures for this time of year through Thursday. Unfortunately, with a low sun angle as we move into mid October, all of the low-level moisture being pumped into the region will generate a persistent low-level cloud cover through the day Wednesday. There may even be enough moisture to generate some spotty drizzle or even a light shower overnight tonight and during the day on Wednesday. With dew points in the low 60s, and a cloud cover in place, there will be little radiational cooling tonight and Wednesday night and temperatures will likely not drop below 60 degrees both nights. Also, the air is so warm that despite the lack of sunshine, temperatures are likely to reach 70 degrees again on Wednesday.

Over the past few days, an elongated trough in the jet stream wave pattern over the Midwest, which is almost cut-off from the strongest upper-level westerlies located over Canada, has been propagating very slowly eastward towards the East Coast. It is generating a surface low pressure system along its eastern side, presently located in Illinois, with a trailing cold front along the eastern margin of the colder air within the trough. As this cold front plows into and lifts the the very warm, moist and unstable air in place over the Midwest and eastern U.S. it is generating a band of heavy showers and thunderstorms, some of which have been severe. By the time this front reaches us on Thursday it will have lost some of its punch. In addition, the air over us will not be nearly as unstable as it has been in the Midwest. Therefore, as the front approaches Wednesday night and then moves through on Thursday we are likely to see substantial rainfall but will not see any severe weather, although a few embedded rumbles of thunder could occur late in the day on Thursday.

The rain and showers should end Thursday evening as the front moves through. Even though it will turn “cooler” for Friday and Saturday, the air within the trough is not that cool for this time of year and, with some sunshine, temperatures will still likely be in the above normal 60s for both days. However, a mid/upper-level cold pool/disturbance will rotate into the base of the trough on Saturday, deepening it, and bringing with it much cooler temperatures. There could be a few showers as it moves through late on Saturday and then Sunday could be quite cool indeed, with temperatures not climbing out of the 40s. As the trough shifts to our east, surface high pressure will build in along the back side of the trough (the usual location) and may bring us a prolonged period of sunny, fall weather for next week.

Tuesday Night

Partly cloudy this evening, becoming overcast after midnight. There is a chance of some spotty drizzle toward daybreak.

It will be unseasonably mild with low temperatures near 60, low 60s in South County.

South-southeasterly winds at 5-10 mph.

Wednesday

Cloudy, but unseasonably warm and somewhat muggy. Spotty drizzle is possible with the chance for a widely scattered light shower or two, particularly late in the day. Probability of precipitation 40%. Likely rainfall totals 0.05″ or less.

High temperatures near 70 in Pittsfield, Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; low 70s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; upper 60s over the elevated terrain.

Southeasterly winds at 5-15 mph.

Wednesday Night

Cloudy and unseasonably mild and humid. Showers likely developing during the evening with off and on showers after midnight. Probability of precipitation 90%. Likely rainfall totals between 0.25″ and 0.50″.

Low temperatures in the low to mid 60s.

Southeasterly winds at 5-10 mph.

Thursday

Cloudy and rainy, but still warm and muggy, with periods of rain and showers, heavy at times. The heaviest showers are most likely late in the day, and there may even be a few embedded rumbles of thunder. Probability of precipitation near 100%. Likely additional rainfall totals 0.50″ to 0.75″. Totals could be higher over the elevated terrain to the east.

High temperatures in the upper 60s in most locations; mid to upper 60s over the elevated terrain.

East-southeasterly winds at 5-15 mph.

under: Berkshire County Forecasts

The BCC Weather Station will be down for maintenance until Tuesday, October 14. I will also not be making forecasts for the next week. I will resume forecasting, and hope to forecast more consistently, beginning Tuesday, October 14.

under: Uncategorized

The pesky disturbance which brought us such “drippy” weather the past 36 hours is finally drifting away from the New England coast. Weak surface high pressure will nose into the region to give us one beautiful early fall day on Friday. There should be plenty of sunshine with temperatures well into the 60s and approaching 70. Unfortunately, Saturday looks pretty much like a “washout” as a strong cold front at the leading edge of a “digging” trough in the jet stream wave pattern moves slowly through the county. There will likely be rain for a good part of the day as a fairly wide band of rain and showers, being generated by the heavier, much cooler air behind the front lifting the lighter, relatively warm, moist air in advance of the front, moves through. Rain should develop sometime during the morning, most likely mid to late morning. The rain and showers will continue on and off, but mostly on, before tapering off during the late afternoon to early evening. The strong temperature contrast will generate considerable “lifting”, and there is plenty of moisture available to be lifted, so we will likely see significant rainfall accumulations, on the order of 0.50″. As the cooler air rushes in behind the front, temperatures will plummet into the low 40s Saturday night. There will likely be a mixture of sun and clouds, with more sun than clouds on Sunday, as high pressure starts to build in from the southwest, but it will remain cool, despite the sunshine, with temperatures maxing out in the 50s during the afternoon.

Thursday Night

Partly cloudy this evening, becoming mostly clear after midnight.

Low temperatures in the low 40s.

Light easterly winds.

Friday

Mostly sunny and mild.

High temperatures upper 60s in Pittsfield, Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; near 70 in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; mid 60s over the elevated terrain.

Light southeasterly winds in the morning, increasing to 5-10 mph in the afternoon.

Friday Night

Mostly clear in the evening. Becoming mostly cloudy after midnight with a chance of a light rain shower toward morning. Probability of precipitation 30%. Little or no rainfall accumulation expected.

Low temperatures near 50.

Southeasterly winds at 5-10 mph.

Saturday

Cloudy and cool, with rain or showers developing during the morning and continuing for a good part of the day, tapering off during the late afternoon or early evening. Probability of precipitation near 100%. Likely rainfall totals around 0.50″.

High temperatures in the mid to upper 50s in Pittsfield, Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; upper 50s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; mid 50s over the elevated terrain.

Southeasterly winds at 5-10 mph, shifting to northwesterly late.

Saturday Night and Sunday

After some lingering early evening showers, clearing and turning cooler Saturday night, with low temperatures in the low 40s. A mix of clouds and sun on Sunday, with more sun than clouds, but cool. High temperatures averaging in the mid to upper 50s, with some low 50s over the elevated terrain.

under: Berkshire County Forecasts

The main, polar front jet stream is located well to our north, over Canada. However, even though this usually means fair and warm weather (like this past weekend), the lack of a steering current has enabled some weak, mid and upper-level disturbances, located well south of the main jet stream, to wander into the Northeast. Thus the cloudy and, with the paucity of sunshine, somewhat cooler weather the past few days. Unfortunately, although these “meandering” disturbances have been relatively harmless in regard to our weather until now, that is about to change. One, very weak disturbance is generating an area of rain over southeastern New England. This disturbance will drift slowly out to sea. A second, stronger disturbance is presently located over the eastern Great Lakes. This disturbance is generating a weak surface low pressure system associated with clusters of slow moving showers and thunderstorms over Pennsylvania and New York state. As this disturbance drifts eastward overnight, it will begin to feed on abundant moisture off the southern New England coast. As a result, it looks like a more “coherent” area of rain and showers will develop over southern New England after midnight. As the low pressure system spins counter-clockwise the associated rain shield will likely “back up” a bit with rain and showers moving southeast to northwest back over Berkshire County toward morning. It looks like showers will likely continue off and on during the day, and even into the evening. Most of the rain should be relatively light and occur during the morning hours, with showers much more scattered during the afternoon as the disturbance drifts very slowly eastward off the coast. A caveat here…..as is usually the case with weak and poorly organized systems, this is not a high confidence forecast in terms of rainfall coverage and amounts across the county.

Since it will take quite some time for the disturbance to pull away we will probably not see clearing skies until sometime on Thursday afternoon. Weak surface high pressure will then build in to give us a mostly sunny and mild day on Friday. In the meantime, quite cold Arctic air will begin to plunge south out of Canada, being drawn south into a fairly deep trough in the jet stream wave pattern developing over the central U.S. on Friday. A strong cold front at the leading edge of this trough will plow through Berkshire County during the day on Saturday. As a result, it is looking like a period of fairly substantial rainfall will likely occur sometime on Saturday. It should then turn much cooler on Sunday, with high temperatures remaining in the 50s.

Tuesday Night

Partly to mostly cloudy this evening. Becoming mostly cloudy after midnight with rain or showers likely developing toward morning. Probability of precipitation 60%. Likely rainfall totals 0.05″ to 0.15″.

Low temperatures in the low to mid 50s.

Light east-northeasterly winds.

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy with scattered, on and off, rain showers likely. Showers are mostly likely during the morning hours but could occur at any time during the day. Probability of precipitation 60%. Any rainfall totals likely 0.10″ or less.

High temperatures near 60 in Pittsfield, Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; low 60s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; mid to upper 50s over the elevated terrain.

Northeasterly winds at 5-10 mph.

Wednesday Night

Mostly cloudy. There is a chance of a few lingering showers before midnight. Probability of precipitation 40%. Rainfall totals likely 0.05″ or less.

Low temperatures near 50.

Light north-northeasterly winds.

Thursday

Mostly cloudy in the morning. Some clearing during the afternoon.

High temperatures in the low to mid 60s in Pittsfield, Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; mid 60s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; near 60 to low 60s over the elevated terrain.

Light north-northeasterly winds.

under: Berkshire County Forecasts

It continues to look like we will be right on the northern edge of the rain shield tomorrow. In addition, the rain shield will tend to “break up” and evaporate as the disturbance bumps into the dry and sinking air of the broad surface high pressure system presently centered over New England. The computer models have been trending toward the high pressure system “holding” the system at bay to our south and more effectively breaking apart the precipitation then it appeared yesterday so I have decreased the precipitation probabilities from yesterday. It looks less like a “rainy day” tomorrow and more of a mostly cloudy day with just the chance of a little light rain or a few showers, with the increasing likelihood of showers the further south and east one goes within the county. It is even possible that we may see some sunshine in the afternoon tomorrow as the surface low begins to dissipate and drift southeastward over the course of the day. Some of the high resolution models are still bringing the steady rain into the county, so this is still a possibility, but I think this is much less likely than the scenario I just mentioned. If we don’t get steady rain, temperatures will also not be quite as cool as it appeared yesterday. 

Once the surface low moves away, warm and sunny surface high pressure will re-establish itself across the region and we should see mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the 70s Friday through Sunday.

Wednesday Night

Increasing clouds this evening. Becoming mostly cloudy after midnight.

Low temperatures in the upper 40s.

Light easterly winds.

Thursday

Mostly cloudy with just a chance of light rain or rain showers. Probability of precipitation 20% in North County, 30% in central Berkshire and 40% in South County. Any rainfall totals likely 0.10″ or less.

High temperatures in the low 60s in most locations, near 60 over the elevated terrain.

Northeasterly winds at 5-10 mph.

Thursday Night

Mostly cloudy with a chance of a lingering shower in the evening, then decreasing cloudiness after midnight.

Low temperatures in the mid 40s.

Light north-northeasterly winds.

Friday

Mostly sunny and warmer.

High temperatures in the low 70s in Pittsfield; low to mid 70s in Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; mid 70s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; near 70 to low 70s over the elevated terrain.

North-northwesterly winds at 5-10 mph.

under: Berkshire County Forecasts

Ah, the proverbial fly in the ointment…… After I promised sunny and clear weather for the foreseeable future, it looks like we may be in for a rainy day on Thursday. A disturbance in mid and upper-levels of the atmosphere, well to the south of (cut-off from) the polar front (main) jet stream, is presently generating a very weak surface low pressure system along the Southeast coast. Since it is far removed from the jet stream, this disturbance does not have much in the way of steering currents and, thus, will move quite slowly over the next several days. The disturbance and its associated rain shield will drift slowly north over the next few days, being held at bay by surface high pressure to the north, before essentially stalling just to our south on Thursday and then drifting slowly south and east from Friday through Sunday as it, slowly, dissipates. With the lack of steering currents, and the small, compact nature of this system, it is difficult to forecast its exact track as well as how far its rain shield will extend. We will likely be on the northern edge of the rain shield on Thursday and the computer models have been somewhat divergent in their solutions, both between models and from run to run within models. However, this is the way I see it at the present time……I will update the forecast tomorrow if things change.

Clouds will be on the increase mid to late Wednesday afternoon as the system approaches from the south. It will then become overcast Wednesday night and likely remain overcast through the day Thursday and most of Thursday night. Rain will likely develop sometime Thursday morning and continue off and on for most of the day Thursday and into Thursday night. The greatest chance for rain, and the greatest amounts should be in southern and eastern portions of the county where 0.50″ may fall. In fact, it is looking like Thursday may be a very nasty day for this time of year, with temperatures holding in the 50s, in addition to the rain (ouch!)

Once the system drifts away, skies should clear on Friday and we “should” have a sunny, mild weekend, with high temperatures in the 70s, as surface high pressure rebuilds into the region.

Tuesday Night

Mostly clear and cool. Patchy fog developing after midnight.

Low temperatures in the low 40s.

Light west-northwesterly winds this evening, shifting to east-northeasterly after midnight.

Wednesday

Any patchy fog burning off during the morning, otherwise mostly sunny to partly cloudy and mild. Increasing cloudiness during the mid to late afternoon.

High temperatures in the upper 60s in Pittsfield, Adams, North Adams, Willliamstown, Lee and Stockbridge; near 70 in Great Barrington and Sheffield; and low to mid 60s over the elevated terrain.

Light east-southeasterly winds.

Wednesday Night

Mostly cloudy and not quite as cool. There is the slight chance of a shower in South County toward morning.

Low temperatures near 50.

Winds light easterly to calm.

Thursday

Mostly cloudy and cool, with occasional rain or showers likely. Probability of precipitation 60% in central Berkshire. 70% in South County and 50% in North County.

High temperatures in the mid 50s in Pittsfield, Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; mid to upper 50s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; low 50s over the elevated terrain.

Northeasterly winds at 5-10 mph.

under: Berkshire County Forecasts

A cold front approaching Berkshire County from the west is presently generating a line of showers and thunderstorms moving west to east across New York State. By the time these showers reach us, between about 11 pm and 1 am tonight, they will have lost the energy due to environmental instability generated by daytime heating and will likely only be scattered and fairly light. Once this front moves through, we should remain dry for an extended period of time, through at least next weekend, as a sprawling surface high pressure system builds in and stalls across the entire eastern half of the country. This will occur due to a shift of the jet stream into Canada, with a broad ridge in the jet stream wave pattern building across the U.S..

Following the passage of the cold front, Monday and Monday night will be much cooler, although there will be considerable cloudiness in place until the low level moisture and instability associated with the upper-level cold pool within the jet stream trough lift out on Tuesday. From Tuesday through next weekend the skies should remain mostly clear with abundant sunshine. Temperatures will also moderate over the course of the week, as the warm ridge shifts eastward, with high temperatures rising a few degrees each day, through the 60s and into the 70s by the weekend.

Sunday Night

Partly cloudy this evening. Scattered, mostly light, showers are possible late this evening, between about 11 pm and 1 am. Skies will then clear for a time before clouds increase again toward morning. It will turn breezy and cooler after midnight. Probability of precipitation 50%. Likely rainfall totals 0.10″ or less.

Low temperatures in the low to mid 50s.

Light south-southwesterly winds this evening, shifting to westerly and increasing to 10-15 mph after midnight.

Monday

Mostly cloudy, very breezy, and cooler. Some scattered sprinkles or light showers are still possible, predominantly in the morning. Probability of precipitation 30%. Measurable rainfall is unlikely.

Temperatures will not rise much over the course of the day, with high temperatures in the upper 50s in Pittsfield, Adams, North Adams, and Willliamstown; near 60 in Lee and Stockbridge; near 60 to low 60s in Great Barrington and Sheffield; and mid 50s over the elevated terrain.

West-northwesterly winds at 10-20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph, particularly over the elevated terrain.

Monday Night

Considerable cloudiness during the evening, then clearing after midnight. Diminishing winds but much cooler than previous nights.

Low temperatures in the upper 30s.

West-northwesterly winds at 5-15 mph in the evening, becoming light after midnight.

Tuesday

Mostly sunny and pleasant, with seasonable temperatures.

High temperatures in the mid 60s in Pittsfield, Lee and Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; mid to upper 60s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; near 60 to low 60s over the elevated terrain.

Northwesterly winds at 5-10 mph.

under: Berkshire County Forecasts

A cold front is entering Berkshire County from the north this afternoon with a few widely scattered light showers. It will pass through rapidly, with clearing skies this evening. However, behind the front, a surface high pressure system containing a cool Canadian air mass will drop south over the Northeast. The coolest air will remain to our north over southeastern Canada. However, we will still likely experience the coolest air of the season so far, tonight and Friday. As skies clear and winds die down overnight we will have good conditions for “radiational cooling” with temperatures dropping into the 30s in most locations by morning. There may even be some isolated frost in a few wind sheltered valleys over the elevated terrain. Despite plenty of sunshine on Friday, temperatures will not exceed the 50s in most locations.

Over the weekend, we will see a moderating trend, with temperatures in the 60s on Saturday and the 70s on Sunday. However, even though we will likely remain dry until at least Sunday evening, the milder air will come at the expense of greater amounts of cloudiness. A weak warm front, heralding the leading edge of a ridge in the jet stream wave pattern, extending south and east from a surface low pressure system moving through the northern Great Lakes, will move through our region on Saturday. As the warmer air overrides cooler air at the surface considerable cloudiness will be generated. In fact, it will likely be mostly cloudy during the morning and into the afternoon with some additional peaks of sunshine, lets call it “partly sunny”, developing late in the day. Despite the much milder air being driven in on southerly breezes around the departing high pressure system (clockwise flow), that will be over us Friday, we will still probably only peak out in the low to mid 60s on Saturday due to the extensive cloud cover.

Skies will be clearer Saturday night and Sunday once the warm front passes and with greater sunshine on Sunday temperatures could soar well into the 70s. It will likely reach the mid 70s in most places and could even touch the upper 70s, particularly in South County, if we receive enough sunshine. Once the ridge in the jet stream progresses eastward, another trough will approach, with a cold front at its leading edge passing through on Sunday evening/night. This will likely generate a band of showers during the evening or overnight Sunday night.

After the cold front passes, we may be in for an extended period of early fall weather next week as a large, sprawling surface high pressure system develops on the back side of the jet stream trough, extending westward into a broad ridge over the eastern and midwestern U.S., as the jet stream lifts north into Canada. The only fly in the ointment is a weak disturbance that may ride through the base of the trough with nothing more than a light shower Tuesday morning. Otherwise we could see mostly sunny skies from Monday through the following weekend, with cool temperatures early in the week and moderating temperatures later in the week.

Thursday Night

Clearing this evening, then mostly clear and quite cool. Isolated frost possible in a few wind sheltered valley locations over the elevated terrain.

Low temperatures generally in the mid to upper 30s, with some low to mid 30s possible over the elevated terrain.

Northwesterly winds at 5-10 mph, becoming light and shifting to north-northeasterly after midnight.

Friday

Sunny and cooler.

High temperatures in the upper 50s in Pittsfield, Adams, North Adams, Willliamstown, Lee and Stockbridge; near 60 in Great Barrington and Sheffield; and low to mid 50s over the elevated terrain.

Light northeasterly winds, shifting to southeasterly during the afternoon.

Friday Night

Mostly clear during the evening. Increasing low clouds toward daybreak.

Low temperatures generally in the low 40s, some upper 30s are possible over the elevated terrain.

Light south-southeasterly winds.

Saturday

Mostly cloudy through the morning and into the afternoon. Becoming partly sunny late, particularly in South County. Somewhat breezy and slightly milder, although it will likely still feel cool with limited sunshine and a breeze.

High temperatures in the low to mid 60s in Pittsfield, Lee and Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; mid to upper 60s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; low 60s over the elevated terrain.

Southerly winds at 8-12 mph.

Saturday Night and Sunday

Partly cloudy and unseasonably mild. A chance of a shower late on Sunday. Low temperatures averaging in the mid 50s, and high temperatures on Sunday averaging in the mid 70s.

under: Berkshire County Forecasts

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