The following forecast is provided by Joe Kravitz, the  instructor for the Introduction to Meteorology course, there is no student forecast today:

Summary: Weather systems remain weak as the jet stream pattern across most of the country continues to be quite flat/zonally (E-W) oriented (a non-amplified wave pattern). The cold front that passed through and stalled just to our south last night will move slowly back to the north and through the region tonight and Saturday. Presently, a relatively thin band of light snow and snow showers is developing along this front to our west and south across the lower tier of New York State and Connecticut. The northern margin of this band is just about to enter the southern edge of Berkshire County as this forecast is being written (1:30 pm). This band of snow will move through the county from south to north over the course of this afternoon and this evening. The precipitation is light and the band is thin (narrow N-S extent) so even though it is moving slowly from south to north, it will probably not generate much accumulation, perhaps an inch or less, although there may be 2″ in some locations, particularly over elevated terrain. The band will tend to weaken and become more “broken” as it moves through our region and we should only be left with some scattered snow showers and flurries after midnight tonight and into tomorrow. Scattered snow showers may end as a few light rain showers Saturday evening. Any precipitation during the day on Saturday should be quite light but there may be a little sleet and freezing rain in some locations as the precipitation transitions from snow to rain on Saturday afternoon and evening. The roads could get a little slippery over the higher terrain during this period as temperatures struggle to reach the freezing mark. However, the roads should remain just wet throughout most of the county as the ground and roads are still relatively warm since it is still early in the “winter” season and air temperatures will be above freezing in most locations.

This warm frontal passage will usher in some unseasonably mild weather for Sunday and into the early work week as daytime temperatures reach into the 50s in most locations in the county. A few rain showers are likely late Sunday afternoon and evening as a very weak cold front wanders through. However, this front is so weak that it will essentially dissipate as it moves through and our temperatures will actually be slightly milder on Monday than Sunday.

Friday Afternoon and Night

Overcast with a period of light snow and snow showers this afternoon and this evening, progressing from south to north through the county during the period. The steady period of light snow and snow showers should end by midnight with only the chance of a few scattered flurries or snow showers in the early morning hours. Total accumulations should be about one inch or less in most of the county with some two inch totals in some locations over elevated terrain. Probability of precipitation 80%, diminishing to 50% after midnight.

Low temperatures in the low 20s in most locations overnight. There may be a few upper teens over the elevated terrain.

East-northeast winds at 5-10 mph.

Saturday

It will be an overcast and cold day. There is a good chance of scattered snow flurries and showers in the morning. During the afternoon, a mix of frozen precipitation is possible in some locations as we transition from snow to rain as the warm front moves through. However, any precipitation will remain light and scattered. Little or no snow or ice accumulation. Probability of precipitation 50% in the morning, decreasing to 30% during the afternoon.

High temperatures in the low to mid 30s in Pittsfield, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; mid 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield, and upper 20s to low 30s in the elevated terrain and hilltowns, depending on elevation.

East-southeasterly winds at 5-10 mph.

Saturday Night:

Remaining overcast with the slight chance of a few scattered rain showers during the evening. Probability of precipitation 20% before midnight.

Temperatures will actually rise a few degrees overnight with the warm front passage. By morning, temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s in Pittsfield, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown and in the upper 30s to near 40 in Great Barrington and Sheffield. Temperature over elevated terrain should be similar as the warmer air is moving in aloft so will affect higher elevations as well.

Southeast winds shifting to south by morning at 8-12 mph.

Sunday:

Partly sunny to mostly cloudy during the morning into early afternoon, becoming overcast late in the afternoon with the chance of a rain shower. Probability of precipitation 40%. It will be breezy and much milder.

High temperatures in the low 50s in Pittsfield, low to mid 50s in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, mid 50s in Great Barrington and Sheffield, and near 50 to low 50s in the elevated terrain and hilltowns.

Southerly winds at 15-20 mph

The following forecast is provided by Brianna Lord, in conjunction with the  instructor, as part of lab work for the Introduction to Meteorology course:

Summary: There will be some scattered lake-effect snow flurries/showers overnight with only a few remaining flurries early Thursday morning. There may be a dusting in a few locations, but otherwise no accumulation is expected. Skies will clear quickly early on Thursday and we will finally get a decent amount of sunshine as surface high pressure builds in for Thursday. There may be a few flurries Thursday night as a weak cold front moves through. It will remain seasonably cold through the forecast period but temperatures will be a little below average on Friday following passage of the cold front. The cold front will stall just to our south so we will have considerable cloudiness cloudiness on Friday as well. In fact, a few snow showers could develop late Friday afternoon as the front makes its way back north as a warm front. The warm frontal passage will likely be accompanied by a period of snow showers/light snow from Friday night into Saturday but this will open the door for much milder weather for late in the weekend and into early next week.

Wednesday Night

Mostly cloudy. There is the good chance of scattered snow showers/snow flurries developing after midnight. There may be a dusting in a few locations but otherwise no accumulation. Probability of precipitation 50%.

Low temperatures in the mid 20s.

West-northwest winds at 5-10 mph.

Thursday

There is the chance of a few, scattered early morning snow flurries. Skies should clear quickly and other than some thin, high clouds it will be mostly sunny as the high pressure system moves in.

It will be seasonably cold with high temperatures in the upper 30s in Pittsfield, upper 30s to low 40s in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, low 40s in Great Barrington and Sheffield, and low to mid 30s in the elevated terrain and hilltowns, depending on elevation.

Westerly winds at 10-15 mph.

Thursday Night:

Clear during the evening. It will cloud up quickly with a good chance of scattered snow showers moving into North County around midnight as the cold front moves through.  The band of scattered flurries/snow showers will move from north to south during the early morning hours. Probability of precipitation 50%. There may be a dusting in a few locations, otherwise no accumulation.

Low temperatures generally in the mid 20s, with low 20s over the elevated terrain.

Westerly winds at 5-10 mph in the evening will shift to northerly after midnight following the passage of the cold front.

Friday:

There will be considerable mid and high-level clouds during the morning although they should be thin enough for the sun to shine through at times. It will become overcast during the afternoon. There is the chance of a late day snow shower. Probability of precipitation 30%. No accumulation is expected.

It will be a little colder with high temperatures in the low 30s in Pittsfield, low to mid 30s in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, mid 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield, and upper 20s to near 30 in the elevated terrain and hilltowns.

Northerly winds at 5-10 mph.

This forecast update provided by Joe Kravitz:

From what I am seeing on radar this morning I think I would up the snowfall totals to 1-3″ for Berkshire County with highest amounts to the south and lowest amounts to the north.

The following forecast is provided by Colleen Jones, in conjunction with the  instructor, as part of lab work for the Introduction to Meteorology course:

Summary: There is likely to be a relatively brief period of light snow Tuesday morning as a weak low pressure system moves off the coast to our south, grazing Berkshire County with the northern edge of its precipitation shield. There will be a fairly sharp boundary to the northern edge of the snowfall, possibly right through the middle of the county, as with the snow event earlier this month. Where this boundary sets up is uncertain. However, any accumulating snow is more likely to occur in the southern portions of the county. Where snow does accumulate it will likely not exceed one inch. However, there may be a few isolated spots that receive as much as two inches. Our weather will then begin to clear, as early as later tomorrow afternoon. However, clouds will increase again on Wednesday as lake effect clouds and even a few flurries develop with cold WNW winds late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Surface high pressure should then, finally, build over our region for the latter part of the week and bring some sunshine, although it will remain fairly cold. As the high pressure system moves off the coast over the weekend we may have a bit of a warmup as winds shift around to the south on the western side of the high.

Monday Night:

Partly cloudy during the evening, then increasing and thickening clouds after midnight. Light snow will likely develop near 6 or 7 am. Probability of precipitation 60% but only 40% in North County. Accumulations will only be a dusting at most.

With cloud cover developing, low temperatures will only fall to the mid to upper 20’s.

Light westerly winds becoming southerly after midnight.

 

Tuesday:

Light snow is likely in the morning but should begin to taper off to a few scattered snow showers by early afternoon. Some breaks in the cloud cover will develop later in the afternoon. Probability of precipitation 70% in central and southern Berkshire but only 50% in north county. Accumulations will likely be an inch or less in most locations but could reach 2″ in a few locations over higher terrain to the south and east.

Temperatures will struggle to reach the freezing mark in much of the county. High temperatures in the low 30s in Pittsfield, low to mid 30s in Adams, North Adams, Williamstown, Great Barrington and Sheffield. Highs in the upper 20s to near 30 over the elevated terrain and hilltowns.

Light southerly winds shifting to north-northwesterly late.

 

Tuesday Night:

Partly to mostly cloudy and seasonably cold.

Low temperatures in the mid 20’s in most locations with some low 20s over the elevated terrain

Light north-northwesterly winds.

 

Wednesday: 

Partly cloudy in the morning becoming mostly cloudy by afternoon. There is the chance of scattered flurries late. Probability of precipitation 20%. No accumulation is expected.

Temperatures will remain below average with high temperatures in the mid 30s in Pittsfield, mid to upper 30s in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, upper 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and near 30 to low 30s over the elevated terrain and hilltowns.

Northwest winds at 5-10 mph will shift to westerly in the afternoon.

The following forecast update is provided by Joe Kravitz:

The projected jet stream pattern for Tuesday becomes flatter with each model run. It now appears that the storm will move rapidly out to sea well to our south. We are likely to receive little if any snowfall from this storm. The increased speed of movement of the surface low will put us in the path of any snowfall with this weak storm earlier than previously expected with the chance of light snow/snow showers Tuesday morning into the afternoon. Any accumulations should be an inch or less.

The following forecast update is provided by Joe Kravitz:

The forecast for this weekend does not appear changed from yesterday. However, I would like to give an update on the potential storm for Tuesday and Wednesday. The scenario does not appear significantly changed from yesterday. The jet stream wave pattern does not appear amplified enough (too flat/zonally oriented) to generate a strong coastal storm. This will limit the upper-level divergence and thus will limit the upward motion/”lifting” required for heavy precipitation and/or strong surface low pressure generation. This orientation of the jet stream will also carry the storm quickly off the coast and out to our south and east. This will prevent the storm from hugging the coast and enabling us to fall within the zone of heavier precipitation. However, this orientation will also keep us in the colder air so that any precipitation that falls will be in the form of snow.

The models are beginning to converge, with the surface low over the southeast U.S. on Tuesday morning, moving to the southeast of Cape Cod and into the Canadian Maritime by Wednesday afternoon. The central pressure in the surface low should only be around 1004 mb as it moves by Cape Cod. That is quite high for a wintertime coastal storm. As with the coastal storm earlier this month, we will likely be on the northwestern fringe of the snow shield. Therefore, it is difficult to know whether we will fall outside the snow shield or within it. With the last storm, the edge of the precipitation shield cut right through the middle of Berkshire County from northeast to southwest. Right now it looks as if at least part of the county will get a relatively light snowfall with about 2-4″ most likely. Any snowfall will likely begin Tuesday afternoon or evening and end sometime after midnight early Wednesday morning. I will give another update tomorrow…………..

The following forecast is provided by Joe Kravitz, the  instructor for the Introduction to Meteorology course, since there are no classes at BCC today due to Thanksgiving break:

Summary: We are in for a shock this weekend as a strong cold front will move through the region this evening and finally end our long period of fair weather and above average temperatures, giving us our first real taste of winter.

The jet stream wave pattern has become more amplified and a cold trough (southern dip in the jet stream) is presently plunging southeastward through the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. The leading edge of this trough is manifested at the surface as a strong cold front.

Just a note, the jet stream is just the manifestation at the tropopause (upper boundary of the troposphere, the lowest layer of the atmosphere where all the up and down motion in the atmosphere, and thus, weather occurs) of the “polar front”, the semi-permanent boundary in middle latitudes (30-60 degrees) where the strongest temperature contrast between cold air to the north and warm air to the south exists.

Even though there is significant lifting associated with the front due to the pronounced temperature difference across the front, the front has limited moisture to work with (surface dew points in the low 30s) so there will only be scattered light rain showers these evening until about 2 am. Any showers will initially be in liquid form but there may be a change to snow showers/flurries around midnight, following frontal passage. However, any snow that falls will not accumulate.

Once the cold front passes, we will remain in the colder air to the north of the jet stream for quite some time, probably through at least next week. Therefore, temperatures will generally be below average. In addition, our surface winds will shift to the west/northwest and become quite strong over the course of the weekend. This will result in quite low wind chill temperatures. Also, at this time of year, the Great Lakes are still quite warm so that as the cold air behind the front blows over the warmer water, the atmosphere will destabilize and clouds and lake-effect snow showers will develop. Most of this snow will fall over western and central New York state. However, we will be at risk of a few scattered lake-effect snow showers/flurries in the Berkshires as well. It is sometimes not well known that even though most of the moisture which evaporates from the lakes in these scenarios falls as precipitation before it reaches us, any moisture that remains can condense into clouds and, sometimes, precipitation as the air is lifted by the Taconic and Hoosac ranges as it ascends out of the Hudson Valley to our west. We are, in effect, the “last stop on the lake-effect train”.

A very weak disturbance in the jet stream will ride southeast out of Alberta, manifested as a weak surface low pressure system (“Alberta Clipper”) over the weekend and reach us Sunday night. The surface low will weaken considerably and dissipate over the Northeast on Sunday night. The “lifting” in the atmosphere associated with this process may give us a some scattered snow showers late Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening but there should be little, if any, accumulation.

A more significant storm may move through our region Tuesday into Wednesday. The two main long-range models, the U.S. based GFS model and the European based ECMWF model are quite divergent in their outcomes for this storm. Both models have us remaining in the cold air so any precipitation we get is likely to be snow. In addition, the trend has been toward a colder storm. The ECMWF model presently has the storm moving out to sea well to our south and east on Tuesday. However, this model has been very inconsistent with the track and, even though this model has had a better track record, given the inconsistencies between runs, I have a low confidence in this model at this point. The GFS has been much more consistent and I find its outcome more realistic. However, the track of the storm even with this model has been trending south and east with the track to our northwest a few days ago (mixed precipitation for us) and now to our southeast, moving off the New Jersey coast and over Cape Cod (all snow). The trend has also been to a weaker storm with both models. So, at this point, I think the most likely scenario is a light to moderate snowfall from Tuesday into Wednesday. I will update this tomorrow….but for now, get ready for much more winter-like weather this weekend. I suspect it will be a shock to the system for most people given our recent mild and tranquil weather.

Friday Night

Increasing clouds with the good chance of scattered rain showers this evening. Any rain showers will likely mix with and change to snow showers by midnight, particularly over the elevated terrain. However, there will be little or no accumulation (dusting over the higher terrain, at best). Most shower activity will end by 2 am. There will be partial clearing in some areas toward daybreak. Probability of precipitation is 50%. Melted liquid precipitation totals will be less than 0.05 inches in most locations.

Temperatures will fall steadily overnight, reaching near 30 in most locations by daybreak. Low temperatures will only be in the low 30s in some parts of South County and the upper 20s over the elevated terrain.

Southerly winds at 8-12 mph this evening will shift to west-northwest and increase to 10-15 mph around midnight, as the cold front moves through.

Saturday

It will average out partly sunny (50-75% cloud cover) in the morning, but become mostly cloudy during the afternoon. It will be windy and much colder. There is the chance of scattered snow showers/flurries. The best chance for snow shower activity appears to be during the early morning and late afternoon, but a snow shower could occur at any time. Probability of precipitation will average 40% but will be higher in the elevated terrain. There will be little or no accumulation in most locations, although there could be a dusting in some heavier snow showers, particularly over the elevated terrain.

Temperatures will rise little over the course of the day as cold air rushes in from the northwest. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s in Pittsfield, mid 30s in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, mid to upper 30s in South County, and upper 20s to low 30s over the elevated terrain and hilltowns, depending on elevation. Wind chill temperatures will be as low as the upper teens when the wind gusts, but will average in the low to mid 20s.

West-northwesterly winds at 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph, particularly in the elevated terrain.

Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy with a chance of a snow shower/flurry, mainly before midnight. Probability of precipitation 40%. Little or no accumulation. Becoming partly cloudy after midnight. Windy and cold.

Low temperatures in the low 20s in most locations with upper teens over the elevated terrain. Wind chill temperatures in the single digits.

West-northwesterly winds at 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

Sunday

Partly sunny in the morning. Cloud cover will be mostly, relatively thin mid and upper level clouds. However, clouds will lower and thicken late morning through the afternoon. There is a chance of a snow shower late afternoon. Probability of precipitation 30%.

It will remain windy and cold. High temperatures in the low 30s in Pittsfield, low to mid 30s in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, mid 30s in South County and upper 20s to low 30s over elevated terrain and the hilltowns, depending on elevation. Wind chill temperatures will again be between the upper teens and mid 20s.

North-northwesterly winds at 15-25 mph will begin to diminish and shift to the southwest late.

The following forecast is provided by Tammara Leminen, in conjunction with the  instructor, as part of lab work for the Introduction to Meteorology course:

Summary: The surface high pressure system that has been sitting on top of us for almost a week will continue to dominate the forecast into the coming week. The jet stream is way up in Canada, about where you’d expect it to be if this was August and not November.  That means the fair weather is going to continue.  However, the temperatures overnight will continue to be seasonably cold with conditions ideal for radiational cooling (clear and calm at the center of the high pressure system) and daytime highs will only be slightly above normal as the sun is so low on the horizon and the winds so weak that we will be unable to break the temperature inversion that develops during the overnights.

Monday night  

Tonight will be calm, cold and mostly clear, with only some thin high clouds.

Temperatures will drop to the low 20s (near the dewpoint) so expect to scrape more ice off your car again tomorrow.

Calm winds.

Tuesday

There will be increasing clouds due to a weak warm front moving through as we transition from the high pressure system presently over our region to a somewhat warmer high pressure system to our south and west. However, the clouds will be relatively thin and high to mid-level so the sun should be able to shine through them most of the day.

Expect another pleasant, seasonably cool day in the Berkshires. High temperatures will be near where they have been almost every day for the past week, slightly above normal, with highs in the mid to upper 40s for Pittsfield, upper 40s for Adams, North Adams and Williamstown and near 50 in South County. With the temperature inversion it will not be much cooler over the elevated terrain with high temperatures in the mid 40s.

Winds will be light and variable.

Tuesday night

There will continue to be considerable thin, mid and high cloud cover. However, there is no threat of precipitation.

The cloud cover will keep it just a tad warmer than the last few nights – with low temperatures in the mid 20s.

Calm winds.

Wednesday 

Most of the East coast will be under a broad ridge of high pressure going into Wednesday as the two surface high pressure systems merge and strengthen as the weak warm front and its associated mid and high clouds dissipate and it becomes mostly sunny.

High temperatures will be unchanged with highs in the mid to upper 40s in Pittsfield, upper 40s in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, near 50 in South County and mid 40s over the elevated terrain and hilltowns.

Winds will be E-NE  at 5-10 MPH.

Looks like it will be a really nice day for people who are traveling on Wednesday to spend Thanksgiving with relatives.

The following forecast is provided by Cherie Dewey and Karen Herbert, in conjunction with the  instructor, as part of lab work for the Introduction to Meteorology course:

Summary: We are still under the influence of a large, sprawling surface high pressure system which is covering the entire eastern two thirds of the United States. However, we have had a significant cover of predominantly high clouds the past two days from a weak upper-level disturbance drifting by well to our south. We have remained dry, but this high cloud cover and the light winds due to the weak pressure gradient associated with the surface high pressure system has prevented us from breaking the radiation inversion which has developed each of the past two nights. As such, our daytime temperatures have remained quite cool, barely reaching the 40 degree mark in much of the county. As the disturbance finally drifts out to sea tonight our skies will clear and remain clear for the entire weekend as high pressure rebuilds and becomes centered right over New England. It will continue to be seasonably cold overnight with ideal radiational cooling conditions. We may be a few degrees warmer during the daytime over the weekend with the sun no longer being filtered by high clouds. However, it will still remain relatively cool as we will still be unable to break the radiation inversion with very light winds under the dome of high pressure and a very low sun angle at this time of year.

Friday Night

Clear and seasonably cold with light winds.

Low temperatures generally in the low 20s countywide.

Light (less than 5 mph) north-northwesterly winds.

Saturday

Mostly sunny.

It will remain cool, although it may be a few degrees milder than Friday. High temperatures in the low to mid 40s in Pittsfield, mid 40s in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, mid to upper 40s in South County and low 40s in the elevated terrain and hilltowns.

Light northwesterly winds.

Saturday Night

Clear, calm and seasonably cold.

Low temperatures in the low to mid 20s.

Calm winds.

Sunday

Some patchy early morning fog is possible. Otherwise, mostly sunny. There may be some additional high clouds late in the afternoon.

High temperatures in the mid 40s in Pittsfield, mid to upper 40s in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, upper 40s in South County and low 40s over elevated terrain and the hilltowns.

Winds light and variable.

The following forecast is provided by Joe Kravitz, the  instructor for the Introduction to Meteorology course:

Summary: A large, sprawling and strong surface high pressure system has built into the region and will remain with us for the forseeable future. As such, we will have generally fair weather with seasonable temperatures at least into the weekend.

Wednesday Night

Clear, calm and seasonably cold.

Low temperatures generally in the low 20s although there will be a few readings in the upper teens in the usually colder valley spots, particularly over the elevated terrain.

Light north-northeasterly winds early in the evening, becoming calm.

Thursday

There will be some high clouds filtering, but not blocking, the sun from time to time.

Temperatures will be seasonable with high temperatures in the low to mid 40s in Pittsfield, mid 40s in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, mid to upper 40s in South County and upper 30s to low 40s in the elevated terrain and hilltowns, depending on elevation.

Light (less than 5 mph) northerly winds.

Thursday Night

Some high clouds from time to time but generally clear, calm and seasonably cold.

Low temperatures again in the low 20s in most locations.

Calm winds.

Friday

There will be some high clouds in the morning but it will, generally, be mostly sunny.

It will be slightly milder, with high temperatures in the upper 40s in Pittsfield, upper 40s to near 50 in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, low 50s in South County and upper 30s to near 40 over elevated terrain and the hilltowns, depending on elevation.

Light northwesterly winds in the morning increasing to 5-10 mph in the afternoon.