Posted at 4:30 pm
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Forecast Discussion (Analysis):
Skies will be generally cloudy Friday night through Saturday, with some periods of scattered lake effect snow showers and flurries as westerly winds, circulating around a surface high pressure system moving by to our south, carrying moisture from the Great Lakes gets lifted by our elevated terrain. Snow showers are most likely tonight into Saturday morning. The lake-effect snow machine should shut off by Saturday afternoon. Any accumulations should be light, on the order of a dusting, but could be as much as 1/2″ in any persistent, heavier bands that develop, particularly over the elevated terrain.
Saturday night through Sunday skies will become overcast as a weak surface low pressure system passes by to our north. Berkshire County should see nothing more than a few snow showers or a short period of light snow, most likely around midday on Sunday, from this system. Any accumulations should be light.
Monday will likely be partly cloudy and colder as weak high pressure builds in briefly before we are affected by a strong low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes on Tuesday into Wednesday. This storm should bring us mostly liquid precipitation as the storm tracks by to our north, leaving us on the warm side of the polar front for most of this event. The surface low will develop over the Great Plains Monday night and then track into the Great Lakes on Tuesday, and then move slowly through the St. Lawrence Valley Tuesday night and Wednesday. Berkshire County will see the typical progression of precipitation types associated with warm fronts as the counter-clockwise circulation around the low pushes the warm front extending eastward from the low through our region Tuesday night.
This event is still several days away but the timeframe looks like this right now: Snow develops during the day on Tuesday and we may see a few inches before the precipitation changes to sleet and then quickly to freezing rain by evening as warm air overruns the cold air at the surface. It looks like the biggest threat from this system may be icing. Even though temperatures could rise above freezing at the surface in much of the county Tuesday night, there may be persistent pockets of freezing rain, particularly over the elevated terrain, before the precipitation changes to plain rain everywhere on Wednesday. I will update this forecast in my next post on Monday afternoon. I will give a quick update over the weekend if the situation changes significantly….
Berkshire County Forecast:
Partly to mostly cloudy and breezy with scattered snow showers or flurries likely developing towards midnight and continuing off and on through the remainder of the night. Snow showers are most likely in central and northern Berkshire and less likely in South County. Probability of precipitation 60% in central and northern Berkshire, 40% in South County. Most likely accumulations a dusting where snow showers occur but there could be as much as 1/2″ in any persistent bands, particularly over the elevated terrain. Low temperatures in the low teens, near 10 over the elevated terrain. West-northwesterly winds at 10 – 15 mph.
Mostly cloudy, breezy and seasonably cold. Scattered snow showers or flurries possible early, little or no accumulation. Skies may clear and winds should diminish late in the day. High temperatures in the mid 20s in the lower elevations of central and northern Berkshire, mid to upper 20s in the lower elevations of South County, and low 20s over the elevated terrain. West-northwesterly winds at 10 – 15 mph, diminishing to 5 – 10 mph late.
Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming overcast. Low temperatures in the mid teens, low teens over the elevated terrain. Westerly winds at 5 – 10 mph in the evening, shifting to southwesterly and then southerly by morning.
Cloudy, breezy and milder with snow showers or a brief period of light snow possible late morning into early afternoon. Clearing skies later in the afternoon. Probability of precipitation 50%. Any accumulations should be less than 1″. High temperatures generally in the mid 30s, mid to upper 30s in South County and low 30s over the elevated terrain. Southwesterly winds at 10 – 15 mph.
Sunday Night and Monday
Partly cloudy, breezy and colder. Low temperatures near 20, only rising into the mid 20s during the day. West-northwesterly winds at 10 – 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Wind chill temperatures in the teens.
Monday Night through Wednesday
Increasing clouds Monday night. Overcast on Tuesday with snow developing. A few inches of accumulation is possible before snow changes to sleet by evening. Sleet should change to freezing rain during the evening. A prolonged period of freezing rain is possible Tuesday night before precipitation changes to plain rain, particularly over the elevated terrain. There may be some pockets of freezing rain early on Wednesday, particularly over the elevated terrain. Precipitation should change to plain rain and become light everywhere during the day on Wednesday.