There is no student forecast today…..

Weak surface high pressure will build in overnight tonight and for the day on Saturday. This will lead to clearing skies tonight and a partly cloudy day on Saturday. Clouds will be on the increase late in the day as a weak cold front extending well south of a surface low pressure system over Hudson Bay in Canada approaches. As it passes through overnight Saturday it will not generate much “lift” in the atmosphere and there is only a chance of a light rain or snow shower. Any light precipitation that falls will likely be rain in the lower elevations and, possibly, wet snow over the elevated terrain. However, anywhere that precipitation does fall it should only be enough to moisten the ground, with no significant rain or snow expected.

The jet stream will then lift northward and surface high pressure will build in for Sunday through Tuesday so there will likely be a good deal of sunshine and moderating temperatures during that period. Temperatures may reach 50 on Monday and into the 50s on Tuesday. A strong cold front will likely move through on Wednesday with a few showers and then colder air will move in for the end of the week. It looks like the really cold arctic air won’t sink as far south as it looked earlier this week so, even though it will be colder, it should not be anything out of the ordinary for November. It also does not look like we are in line for any significant snow anytime in the near future……

Friday Night

Mostly cloudy with a lingering flurry possible this evening, then clearing skies and cold overnight.

Low temperatures in the mid 20s.

Northwest winds at 5-10 mph this evening, becoming light after midnight.

Saturday

A mix of sun and clouds and still fairly cold, increasing clouds late.

High temperatures in the low to mid 40s in Pittsfield, Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams, and Williamstown; mid 40s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; upper 30s over the elevated terrain.

Westerly winds at 5-10 mph, shifting to southwesterly in the afternoon.

Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy with just a chance of a light rain or snow shower. Any precipitation that falls will likely be rain at the lower elevations but could be wet snow over the elevated terrain. Probability of precipitation 30%. Any rainfall will likely be less than 0.05″. No snow accumulation expected.

Low temperatures in the low 30s.

Light south-southwesterly winds.

Sunday

Mostly cloudy in the morning with decreasing clouds in the afternoon.

High temperatures in the mid 40s in Pittsfield, Lee and Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; mid to upper 40s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; near 40 to low 40s over the elevated terrain.

West-northwesterly winds at 5-10 mph.

Sunday Night and Monday

Partly cloudy with seasonable temperatures. Overnight low in the upper 20s and Monday’s highs averaging in the upper 40s.

There is no student forecast today…..Remember that clicking on underlined blue font will take you to weather maps that the text is describing.

A cold front weakened as it moved through this morning and then stalled just to our south during the day. In the mean time, a weak surface low pressure system is developing over the upper Midwest in response to an amplifying trough in the jet stream wave pattern. This low will strengthen as it moves southeastward overnight, reaching Ohio by Thursday morning. It will then re-develop along the stalled front along the southern New England coast Thursday afternoon and evening and then deepen rapidly as it moves into the Gulf of Maine and then the Canadian Maritime region Thursday night and Friday.

As the low shifts to the coast, rain and showers will spread across Berkshire County from south to north during the late morning into early afternoon. Rain and showers should then continue off and on for the remainder of the afternoon. Rainfall should be generally light to occasionally moderate with likely rainfall totals between 0.25″ to 0.40″. Any steady rain should taper off to scattered light showers during the evening. Overnight, as the low moves into the Gulf of Maine, moisture will rotate counterclockwise around the low and be lifted by our elevated terrain. This will result in scattered, off an on, light showers. As colder air moves in the rain showers will turn to snow showers well after midnight. By the morning commute there could be a light coating/dusting of snow on grassy surfaces in spots, particularly over the elevated terrain to the north. Over the course of the day on Friday it will remain mostly cloudy and turn breezy and remain fairly cold, with temperatures remaining in the 30s in most locations. Off and on snow flurries and showers are possible, particularly in northern and central Berkshire and are most likely over the elevated terrain there. The snow shower activity may be enhanced during the afternoon as a cold pocket aloft rotates into the trough over us and destabilizes the atmosphere further. This may generate a few snow squalls that could leave a coating in places with even up to 1-2″ or so over the higher terrain in North County.

Surface high pressure will build in briefly on Saturday so we will have on “dry” day. It will remain fairly cold, with temperatures once again struggling to get out of the 30s, despite some sunshine. Another weak cold front will move through Saturday night into Sunday morning with a period of light rain or snow showers. The jet stream will then, temporarily, lift northward, allowing a “warmer” ridge and accompanying surface high pressure to build in on Monday and Tuesday and we will likely see temperatures “soar” back into the 50s. However, don’t get too used to it because the ridge will building in advance of an amplifying trough that will likely plow into our region on Wednesday. Cold arctic air will dive out of Canada into this trough and into our region and it looks like it could get quite cold, colder than anything we have seen thus far, during the late week and possibly into the following weekend.

Wednesday Night

Increasing and thickening clouds.

Low temperatures in the upper 30s to near 40.

Light southwesterly winds this evening, becoming calm after midnight.

Thursday

Overcast and cool. Rain or rain showers spreading over the county from south to north from late morning into early afternoon. Rain/showers will continue off and on throughout the afternoon. The rain should be mostly light to occasionally moderate. Probability of precipitation 90%. Likely rainfall totals 0.25″ to 0.40″.

High temperatures in the mid 40s in Pittsfield, Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams, and Williamstown; mid to upper 40s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; low 40s over the elevated terrain.

Light easterly winds in the morning, increasing to 5-10 mph in the afternoon.

Thursday Night

Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers, mostly light, turning to scattered snow showers by morning. Probability of precipitation 70%. Likely rainfall totals 0.10″ or less. There may be a coating of snow on grassy surfaces in spots by morning, particularly over the elevated terrain. It will become breezy toward morning.

Low temperatures in the mid 30s, low 30s over the elevated terrain.

Light northeasterly winds early, shifting to northwesterly during the evening, and increasing to 10-15 mph by morning.

Friday

Mostly cloudy, breezy and cold. A bit more sunshine is possible in South County. Scattered snow flurries and showers are likely in central and northern Berkshire, particularly early in the morning and then later in the afternoon. There may be a few heavier squalls, particularly in North County later in the afternoon. Probability of precipitation 60%. Likely snow accumulation, a dusting in spots with up to 1-2″ in any heavier squalls over the elevated terrain to the north.

High temperatures in the mid to upper 30s in Pittsfield, Lee and Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; near 40 in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; low to mid 30s over the elevated terrain.

Northwesterly winds at 10-20 mph with higher gusts, particularly in any snow squalls.

The following forecast is provided by Keiland Cross as part of lab work for the Introduction to Meteorology course (ATM-145) under my supervision. The forecast discussion is mine……

The amplified trough responsible for generating a rapidly developing coastal storm off the New England coast yesterday, which was responsible for over one foot of heavy wet snow in parts of Maine, is lifting rapidly to our northeast and is being replaced by a warm ridge, as the jet stream, temporarily, shifts northward. As a result, temperatures will be above normal for the next few days. At the surface, sprawling surface high pressure centered to our southwest will move slowly eastward and keep our weather dry for the next few days. The next approaching trough will generate surface low pressure well north of the Great Lakes on Tuesday. This low will have little affect on our weather aside from some clouds on Tuesday as a weak warm front, extending well south and east of the low moves through. As the low lifts northeast over Hudson Bay on Tuesday night it will attempt to drag its cold front across our region. However, the front will weaken and dissipate to our northwest, over upstate New York, and we will once again likely only see some cloudiness late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but should remain dry.

The jet stream will once again shift southward, and as a result, our weather will become more active, later in the week. A trough in the jet stream will amplify as it moves over the eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday. A surface low will develop over the Great Lakes in response to this deepening trough on Wednesday night and then move into the Ohio Valley Thursday morning. The surface low will deepen rapidly as it moves directly over Berkshire County on Thursday evening. With strong forcing/lifting associated with the low, and plenty of moisture feeding into the system from our south and east, we are likely to get substantial rain Thursday afternoon and night, possibly upward of 1″.

As the cold trough moves over us on Friday and the deepening low departs, it will turn windy and much cooler, with some lingering showers still possible. Surface high pressure will build in briefly to give us some sunshine and still cool temperatures on Saturday before the next storm arrives on Sunday. It looks like we may get substantial rain from this storm as well. However, that is still almost a week away, so that forecast scenario may change……

Monday Night

Partly cloudy and seasonably cold.

Low temperatures near 30.

Light westerly winds.

Tuesday

A mix of sun and clouds and mild, with more sun than clouds in the morning and more clouds than sun in the afternoon.

High temperatures in the upper 50s in Pittsfield, Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams, and Williamstown; near 60 in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; mid 50s over the elevated terrain.

Light southwesterly winds in the morning, becoming south-southwesterly at 5-10 mph in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night

Partly cloudy in the evening, becoming mostly cloudy after midnight. There is the slight chance of a sprinkle or light shower in North County toward daybreak. Probability of precipitation 20%.

Low temperatures in the low 40s.

South-southwesterly winds at 5-10 mph, becoming light toward morning.

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy in the morning, with the slight chance of a sprinkle or light shower, then partly cloudy and mild in the afternoon.

High temperatures in the mid to upper 50s in Pittsfield, Lee and Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; upper 50s to near 60 in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; low to mid 50s over the elevated terrain. 

West-southwesterly winds at 5-10 mph.

It looks like the low is tracking a little closer to the coast. Rain still looks to begin early afternoon. Snow changeover times also look unchanged. However, precipitation will be more continuous and heavier than it appeared yesterday with liquid equivalents between 0.25″ and 0.50″, with greatest amounts over the elevated terrain to the east, and wet snow will likely continue through the evening, ending around midnight. Likely wet snow accumulations, a coating to 1″ in the lower elevations and 1-3″ over the elevated terrain to the east.