The following forecast is provided by Keiland Cross as part of lab work for the Introduction to Meteorology course (ATM-145) under my supervision. The forecast discussion is mine……
The amplified trough responsible for generating a rapidly developing coastal storm off the New England coast yesterday, which was responsible for over one foot of heavy wet snow in parts of Maine, is lifting rapidly to our northeast and is being replaced by a warm ridge, as the jet stream, temporarily, shifts northward. As a result, temperatures will be above normal for the next few days. At the surface, sprawling surface high pressure centered to our southwest will move slowly eastward and keep our weather dry for the next few days. The next approaching trough will generate surface low pressure well north of the Great Lakes on Tuesday. This low will have little affect on our weather aside from some clouds on Tuesday as a weak warm front, extending well south and east of the low moves through. As the low lifts northeast over Hudson Bay on Tuesday night it will attempt to drag its cold front across our region. However, the front will weaken and dissipate to our northwest, over upstate New York, and we will once again likely only see some cloudiness late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but should remain dry.
The jet stream will once again shift southward, and as a result, our weather will become more active, later in the week. A trough in the jet stream will amplify as it moves over the eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday. A surface low will develop over the Great Lakes in response to this deepening trough on Wednesday night and then move into the Ohio Valley Thursday morning. The surface low will deepen rapidly as it moves directly over Berkshire County on Thursday evening. With strong forcing/lifting associated with the low, and plenty of moisture feeding into the system from our south and east, we are likely to get substantial rain Thursday afternoon and night, possibly upward of 1″.
As the cold trough moves over us on Friday and the deepening low departs, it will turn windy and much cooler, with some lingering showers still possible. Surface high pressure will build in briefly to give us some sunshine and still cool temperatures on Saturday before the next storm arrives on Sunday. It looks like we may get substantial rain from this storm as well. However, that is still almost a week away, so that forecast scenario may change……
Monday Night
Partly cloudy and seasonably cold.
Low temperatures near 30.
Light westerly winds.
Tuesday
A mix of sun and clouds and mild, with more sun than clouds in the morning and more clouds than sun in the afternoon.
High temperatures in the upper 50s in Pittsfield, Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams, and Williamstown; near 60 in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; mid 50s over the elevated terrain.
Light southwesterly winds in the morning, becoming south-southwesterly at 5-10 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy in the evening, becoming mostly cloudy after midnight. There is the slight chance of a sprinkle or light shower in North County toward daybreak. Probability of precipitation 20%.
Low temperatures in the low 40s.
South-southwesterly winds at 5-10 mph, becoming light toward morning.
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy in the morning, with the slight chance of a sprinkle or light shower, then partly cloudy and mild in the afternoon.
High temperatures in the mid to upper 50s in Pittsfield, Lee and Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; upper 50s to near 60 in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; low to mid 50s over the elevated terrain.
West-southwesterly winds at 5-10 mph.