There is no student forecast today…..Remember that clicking on underlined blue font will take you to weather maps that the text is describing.

A cold front weakened as it moved through this morning and then stalled just to our south during the day. In the mean time, a weak surface low pressure system is developing over the upper Midwest in response to an amplifying trough in the jet stream wave pattern. This low will strengthen as it moves southeastward overnight, reaching Ohio by Thursday morning. It will then re-develop along the stalled front along the southern New England coast Thursday afternoon and evening and then deepen rapidly as it moves into the Gulf of Maine and then the Canadian Maritime region Thursday night and Friday.

As the low shifts to the coast, rain and showers will spread across Berkshire County from south to north during the late morning into early afternoon. Rain and showers should then continue off and on for the remainder of the afternoon. Rainfall should be generally light to occasionally moderate with likely rainfall totals between 0.25″ to 0.40″. Any steady rain should taper off to scattered light showers during the evening. Overnight, as the low moves into the Gulf of Maine, moisture will rotate counterclockwise around the low and be lifted by our elevated terrain. This will result in scattered, off an on, light showers. As colder air moves in the rain showers will turn to snow showers well after midnight. By the morning commute there could be a light coating/dusting of snow on grassy surfaces in spots, particularly over the elevated terrain to the north. Over the course of the day on Friday it will remain mostly cloudy and turn breezy and remain fairly cold, with temperatures remaining in the 30s in most locations. Off and on snow flurries and showers are possible, particularly in northern and central Berkshire and are most likely over the elevated terrain there. The snow shower activity may be enhanced during the afternoon as a cold pocket aloft rotates into the trough over us and destabilizes the atmosphere further. This may generate a few snow squalls that could leave a coating in places with even up to 1-2″ or so over the higher terrain in North County.

Surface high pressure will build in briefly on Saturday so we will have on “dry” day. It will remain fairly cold, with temperatures once again struggling to get out of the 30s, despite some sunshine. Another weak cold front will move through Saturday night into Sunday morning with a period of light rain or snow showers. The jet stream will then, temporarily, lift northward, allowing a “warmer” ridge and accompanying surface high pressure to build in on Monday and Tuesday and we will likely see temperatures “soar” back into the 50s. However, don’t get too used to it because the ridge will building in advance of an amplifying trough that will likely plow into our region on Wednesday. Cold arctic air will dive out of Canada into this trough and into our region and it looks like it could get quite cold, colder than anything we have seen thus far, during the late week and possibly into the following weekend.

Wednesday Night

Increasing and thickening clouds.

Low temperatures in the upper 30s to near 40.

Light southwesterly winds this evening, becoming calm after midnight.

Thursday

Overcast and cool. Rain or rain showers spreading over the county from south to north from late morning into early afternoon. Rain/showers will continue off and on throughout the afternoon. The rain should be mostly light to occasionally moderate. Probability of precipitation 90%. Likely rainfall totals 0.25″ to 0.40″.

High temperatures in the mid 40s in Pittsfield, Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams, and Williamstown; mid to upper 40s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; low 40s over the elevated terrain.

Light easterly winds in the morning, increasing to 5-10 mph in the afternoon.

Thursday Night

Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers, mostly light, turning to scattered snow showers by morning. Probability of precipitation 70%. Likely rainfall totals 0.10″ or less. There may be a coating of snow on grassy surfaces in spots by morning, particularly over the elevated terrain. It will become breezy toward morning.

Low temperatures in the mid 30s, low 30s over the elevated terrain.

Light northeasterly winds early, shifting to northwesterly during the evening, and increasing to 10-15 mph by morning.

Friday

Mostly cloudy, breezy and cold. A bit more sunshine is possible in South County. Scattered snow flurries and showers are likely in central and northern Berkshire, particularly early in the morning and then later in the afternoon. There may be a few heavier squalls, particularly in North County later in the afternoon. Probability of precipitation 60%. Likely snow accumulation, a dusting in spots with up to 1-2″ in any heavier squalls over the elevated terrain to the north.

High temperatures in the mid to upper 30s in Pittsfield, Lee and Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; near 40 in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; low to mid 30s over the elevated terrain.

Northwesterly winds at 10-20 mph with higher gusts, particularly in any snow squalls.