The following forecast is provided by Kim Grahn and Nick Staffin as part of lab work for the Introduction to Meteorology course (ATM-145) under faculty (Joe Kravitz) supervision. The forecast discussion is mine (JK) ……
Unfortunately for anyone hoping to travel for Thanksgiving, it looks like Berkshire County, as well as a good portion of the Northeast, is in for a significant snowstorm on Wednesday. Unlike some coastal storms, this is a fairly high confidence forecast. It is unlikely that the storm will miss us completely, or change to rain. My best estimate 48 hours out is that we will see a fairly widespread 6-12″ accumulation, with the heaviest amounts over the elevated terrain in central and southern Berkshire. Snow will likely spread from south to north across the county Wednesday morning, in the 8-11 am period, and then continue, heavy at times, through the afternoon and into the evening, tapering off in intensity during the evening hours, and then ending by midnight, or shortly thereafter. This will be a fairly quick moving storm, but it will be potent, with snow falling at an inch per hour at times.
As a curiosity to those interested in such things, the European model (ECMWF) has been incredibly consistent since Friday night with the track and intensity of this storm. The U.S. models were all over the place until coming into line with the European model between Sunday and Monday…..
The surface low that dragged its moisture laden warm front through here late last night and this morning has moved northward into northwestern Quebec. We are now, briefly in the “warm quadrant” of this storm until the cold front trailing southward from the low inches through here during the day on Tuesday. Tuesday will remain fairly mild but not as warm as today. As the cold front, which signals the leading edge of another cold trough in the jet stream wave pattern, moves through, it will stall just off the coast Tuesday night. A surface low pressure system will then develop along the front, just off the Southeast Coast, overnight Tuesday. It will then move rapidly northeastward along the front and intensify during the day on Wednesday, reaching Cape Cod by Wednesday evening, and then into the Canadian Maritime region overnight Wednesday.
After the low pulls out, the cold trough will move slowly eastward, becoming centered over our region by Friday morning. Therefore, cold will return for Thursday and Friday. High temperatures will likely remain in the 20s both days, with lows Thursday night in the teens. With a fresh snow cover an clearing skies, temperatures could drop into the single digits by Saturday morning. Temperatures should then moderate over the weekend with temperatures back in the 40s by Sunday.
I will update the forecast for Wednesday’s storm tomorrow afternoon……
Monday Night
Clearing, except for a veil of high, thin clouds. Unseasonably mild.
Low temperatures in the mid 40s.
South-southwesterly winds at 10-15 mph this evening, becoming southwesterly at 5-10 mph after midnight.
Tuesday
Sunshine through a veil of high, thin clouds.
Temperatures holding fairly steady throughout the day, with high temperatures in the upper 40s in Pittsfield, Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams, and Williamstown; near 50 in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; mid 40s over the elevated terrain.
West-southwesterly winds at 8-12 mph.
Tuesday Night
Increasing clouds and colder, becoming overcast by morning.
Low temperatures near 30, upper 20s over the elevated terrain.
Westerly winds at 5-10 mph, becoming light northwesterly after midnight.
Wendesday
Snow developing from south to north across the county during the morning, most likely during the 8-11 am time period. Snow, heavy at times through the afternoon and into the evening, tapering off during the evening and ending around midnight or during the early morning hours. Probability of precipitation 90%. Widespread snow accumulation of 6-12″ likely.
High temperatures in the low 30s early in Pittsfield, Lee and Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; low to mid 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; near 30 over the elevated terrain. Once snow develops temperatures will likely fall into the upper 20s, mid 20s over the elevated terrain.
Light northwesterly winds in the morning, shifting to north-northeasterly and increasing to 5-10 mph in the afternoon.