The forecast for the upcoming “storm” has not changed greatly from Friday. However, I would like to give a detailed forecast for the timeline of events as I see it…..

It looks like the precipitation should move in a little earlier than it appeared a few days ago, with snow developing from south to north between 1 and 3 am tonight. It looks like we should get a quick “burst” of snow that lasts for an hour or two, which then changes to rain and freezing rain between about 3 and 6 am from south to north. It looks like we should get a fairly widespread snow accumulation of around 1″ with perhaps only a coating in parts of South County where the changeover to liquid precipitation will likely occur sooner. There could be as much as 2″ in a few spots over the elevated terrain, in North County in particular. There most likely will only be intermittent light rain and freezing rain or drizzle from between around 6 or 7 am til around 9 or 10 am. Temperatures should remain fairly close to freezing during this period. It will likely be at or just above freezing in the lower elevations and at, or just below freezing in spots over the elevated terrain. I suspect the roads during the morning will just have a bit of slush on them due to the combination of snow with a little freezing rain on top over the elevated terrain and they may just be wet if the road surfaces are treated, which I suspect they will be given the “Winter Weather Advisory” which has been issued by the National Weather Service. At lower elevations the main roads will probably just be wet, with a little slush on the secondary roads. Given that snow will fall first, it is unlikely that an icy glaze will form, particularly this early in the season, even though it has been quite cold lately.

The precipitation should change to plain rain everywhere in the county by noon or 1 pm and temperatures will likely rise into the 40s from late afternoon into the evening. Rain will fall, moderate at times, from late morning through late afternoon, and then taper off and end during the evening. Temperatures will begin to plummet late in the evening, once the surface low passes and drags its cold front through. However, precipitation should end well before temperatures fall back below freezing. Hopefully, roads will have a chance to dry a good deal before the drop in temperatures but there could be some icy spots on Tuesday morning. A band of lake-effect snow showers will likely set up over the county on Tuesday morning so there could be a dusting of snow in spots as well. However, the main story for Tuesday, and on through Wednesday as well, will be the unusual cold for this time of year. Temperatures should hold steady in the 20s during the day on Tuesday, with winds picking up to 15-25 mph. During the afternoon, the temperatures will begin to fall through the 20s and into the teens by evening with wind chill temperatures falling into the single digits.

Sunday Night

Overcast with snow developing from south to north between about 1 and 3 am. A quick “burst” of snow is likely before a changeover to rain and freezing rain from south to north between about 3 and 6 am. Rain, freezing rain and/or drizzle becoming light and intermittent by 7 am. Probability of precipitation 90%. Likely snowfall totals before the changeover generally about 1″ with only a coating in some parts of South County and as much as 2″ in spots over the elevated terrain in central and northern Berkshire. 0.10″ or less of icing.

Low temperatures in the upper 20s.

Light south-southwesterly winds, shifting to east-southeasterly after midnight.

Monday

Light and intermittent rain, freezing rain and drizzle until between about 9 and 11 am. Temperatures will be close to freezing, likely at or just above in the lower elevations and at or just below over the elevated terrain during this period. Rain becoming moderate at times from late morning through the remainder of the day. Precipitation becoming plain rain countywide by early afternoon. Probability of precipitation near 100%. Likely rainfall totals around 0.50″. Up to 0.10″ of icing possible in spots over the elevated terrain.

Temperatures near freezing during the morning, rising through the 30s and into the 40s during the afternoon and into the evening.

East-southeasterly winds at 5-10 mph, shifting to south-southwesterly during the afternoon.

Monday Night

A few lingering rain showers and mild during the evening, then mostly cloudy, becoming breezy and sharply colder. A few scattered snow showers and flurries are possible after midnight. There could be a dusting in spots.

Low temperatures in the mid 20s, low 20s over the elevated terrain.

West-southwesterly winds at 5-10 mph early becoming west-northwesterly and increasing to 10-15 mph after midnight.

Tuesday

More clouds than sun, windy and unseasonably cold. A few scattered snow showers and flurries are possible in the morning. Probability of precipitation 30%. There could be a dusting in spots.

Temperatures will hold steady into the afternoon with high temperatures in the mid 20s in Pittsfield, Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; mid to upper 20s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; low 20s over the elevated terrain. Temperatures will fall through the 20s over the course of the afternoon and into the teens by evening with wind chill temperatures falling into the single digits.

Westerly winds at 10-20 mph, with gusts to 30-35 mph.