There is no student forecast today…..
The tail end of some lake-effect snow bands will rotate north to through the county this evening. These will give us nothing more than the chance of a few scattered flurries/light snow showers. After these pass through, skies will begin to clear overnight as a sprawling surface high pressure system presently centered over the Midwest, moves eastward and becomes centered over the East Coast during the day on Saturday. This will result in a good amount of sunshine but unseasonably cold temperatures for Saturday.
As the surface high moves to our east Saturday night and Sunday, southwesterly flow around the backside of the high will drive warmer air from the south up and over the cold air here at the surface. This broad area of rising air will result in a building cloud cover later Saturday night and a mostly cloudy day on Sunday. Essentially, what will be happening is that the polar front, which passed through our area as a cold front last night, will begin moving back to the north as a warm front. It will be slightly milder Sunday, but temperatures will still be below average.
In the meantime, as the broad, unseasonably cold, trough in the jet stream wave pattern that has been covering a good part of North America, begins to flatten out over the weekend (why the front is moving back to the north) and temperatures moderate, a bit, across the country, another pool of arctic air will begin to descend southward into the base of the trough. This pool of cold air will plunge into the base of the trough over the central U.S. on Sunday and Sunday night. This will serve to amplify the trough and develop surface low pressure along the Gulf Coast, along the southeastern edge of the trough Sunday night. This surface low will then ride rapidly northeastward along the stalled polar front directly toward Berkshire County during the day on Monday. Right now, it looks like the low will pass directly over southern New England and into the Gulf of Maine by Monday night. With this track, the low will likely draw enough “overriding” warm air (aloft) inland to turn the majority of precipitation to liquid form.
The most likely scenario for this “storm” is that snow will develop sometime Monday morning. We may get an inch or two (or three) of snow before it changes to freezing rain and then rain during the afternoon. Rain should end during the evening hours. There could be enough cold air locked in at the surface that freezing rain may persist for awhile during the afternoon, particularly over the elevated terrain to the north, so that will be something to keep an eye on. I will try to update this forecast on Sunday…..
After the low passes, the cold pool previously discussed, will shift eastward, becoming centered just to our west on Tuesday. In addition, the low which passed through on Monday will intensify as it moves into the Canadian Maritime region. The strong pressure gradient between this departing low and strong high pressure building into the eastern U.S. will generate very strong winds over us. Bottom line….if you think this is bad, wait until Tuesday and Wednesday, when we are likely to see lows in the teens and highs in the 20s and wind chills in the single digits (help!! its too early for this….).
Friday Night
Chance of a few scattered snow flurries this evening, particularly in central and northern Berkshire. Scattered flurries could persist past midnight in North County. Probability of precipitation 30%. No accumulation expected. Clearing skies after midnight in South County and partial clearing to the north.
Low temperatures near 20, upper teens over the elevated terrain.
West-northwesterly winds at 5-10 mph this evening, becoming light.
Saturday
Mostly sunny but cold.
High temperatures in the low 30s in Pittsfield; low to mid 30s in Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams, and Williamstown; mid 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; upper 20s to near 30 over the elevated terrain.
West-northwesterly winds at 5-10 mph.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear in the evening, then increasing clouds after midnight.
Low temperatures in the low to mid 20s.
Light westerly winds becoming southwesterly after midnight.
Sunday
Although there may be a few sunnier periods, particularly during the mid to late morning, skies should be mostly cloudy for the majority of the day. It will become a bit breezy in the afternoon.
It will be a bit milder, but still fairly cold for mid November. High temperatures in the mid to upper 30s in Pittsfield; upper 30s in Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; upper 30s to near 40 in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; low to mid 30s over the elevated terrain.
South-southwesterly winds at 5-10 mph, increasing to 10-15 mph in the afternoon.
Sunday Night and Monday
Becoming overcast Sunday night, with snow developing Monday morning. Snow will likely change to freezing rain and then rain during the afternoon. Pockets of freezing rain could persist, particularly over the elevated terrain to the north. Snow accumulations 1-3″. Possible icing over the elevated terrain. Rain and freezing rain ending during the evening.