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Summary: The polar front jet stream is in the process of weakening and becoming quite zonally oriented. In fact, according to the long-range models, this zonal pattern may persist for quite some time, well into next week. With this type of pattern we can expect the weather to be fairly quiet, with no big storms and, once the cold air mass over us lifts out over the next couple of days, no new arctic air masses for awhile.
A jet stream disturbance will slide by to the north of the region tonight and Wednesday. The disturbance is generating “lift” in the atmosphere but the air over the Northeast is quite dry so it will be difficult to squeeze out much, if any, precipitation. Right now, this disturbance is generating a broad area of very light snow over the eastern Great Lakes and parts of upstate New York. However, this precipitation is essentially “drying up” as it moves into the very dry air over our region (dewpoint of 0°F at the BCC weather station). As the disturbance moves by tonight and tomorrow there will only be a slight chance of a few scattered snow flurries or snow showers, predominantly over North County. There may be a short burst of snow flurry activity centered around late morning to early afternoon tomorrow as a cold front associated with the disturbance slides through the county. However, no accumulations are expected. We may see some clearing as the afternoon progresses with mostly clear skies Wednesday night and mostly sunny conditions on Thursday as a surface high pressure system builds into the region behind the disturbance/weak front. Temperatures will remain significantly below “normal” through Thursday. In fact, with near ideal radiational cooling conditions Wednesday night as the high pressure system crests over us and winds become light, temperatures will plummet to near zero (one more time….).
On Friday and Saturday, the surface high pressure system will move to our east and a milder southerly flow around its western side (clockwise flow around highs) along with warmer air aloft as the cold trough (and its associated [modified] arctic air) which has been over us for days finally lifts out and a warmer ridge builds in. As a result, it will be much milder on Friday and Saturday as temperatures “soar” into the 30s in parts of the county. There is even a chance we will see the 40s on Saturday. A “cold” front will slide through late Saturday/Saturday night so temperatures will be a little cooler on Sunday. However, no significant precipitation is expected through the period.
Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy and continued cold. There is the slight chance of a snow flurry or light snow shower, predominantly over North County. Probability of precipitation 20%. No accumulation expected.
Low temperatures near 10, low teens in South County.
Winds light northwesterly to calm.
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy with a chance of a snow flurry or snow shower. Greatest likelihood is from mid morning into early afternoon. Probability of precipitation 30%. Nothing more than a light dusting in a few spots. Partial clearing skies mid to late afternoon.
High temperatures in the mid 20s in Pittsfield; mid to upper 20s in Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, Great Barrington and Sheffield and; low 20s over the elevated terrain.
Light northwesterly winds in the morning, increasing to 5-10 mph mid to late afternoon.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear and very cold.
Low temperatures near zero.
Northerly winds at 5-10 mph in the evening, becoming light after midnight.
Thursday
Mostly sunny and cold.
High temperatures in the low 20s in Pittsfield; low to mid 20s in Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, Great Barrington and Sheffield and; upper teens to near 20 over the elevated terrain.
Winds light and variable.