Note: Clicking on underlined red text provides links to various weather maps.

Summary: The jet stream disturbance moving our way for tomorrow is much more vigorous than it appeared it would be when I made Friday’s forecast. The disturbance is moving rapidly eastward, being propelled by a zonally oriented jet stream. This rapid motion is not permitting much development of a surface low pressure system but is generating very strong vertical motion in the atmosphere. As a result, there is a relatively narrow band of heavy snow falling in the Midwest this afternoon. This band will move rapidly eastward, arriving here by late morning on Tuesday. Even though the resulting period of snow will be relatively short, it will fall heavily at times during the afternoon. As a result, snowfall totals look to be in the 3-6″ range, with the lower end of that range most likely in the lower elevations, particularly in South County, and the higher end of that range more likely over the elevated terrain to the east. Snow will likely begin falling lightly and intermittently in the early to mid morning but then should begin falling moderately to heavy by late morning to around noon. Snow will then continue moderately to heavy, occasionally 1″/hour, through the afternoon as the disturbance moves directly over Berkshire County. Snow should diminish in intensity by 4 or 5 pm and then end by 5 or 6 pm.

Another weak disturbance will roll through Wednesday afternoon and give us another bout of light snow or snow showers. Accumulations should be light, however, on the order of a dusting to 1″ and travel will likely not be an issue with temperatures then in the 30s. We should then get a bit of a reprieve from our endless winter on Thursday and Friday as a warm front moves through Thursday and temperatures “soar” into the 40s on Thursday and Friday. A cold front will move through late on Friday with a band of rain or rain showers. It looks dry at this point over the weekend with seasonable temperatures in the 30s.

Monday Night

Increasing and thickening cloudiness this evening. Becoming overcast after midnight.

Low temperatures in the upper single digits to around 10.

Winds light and variable this evening, becoming east-southeasterly at 5-10 mph after midnight.

Tuesday

Intermittent light snow or snow flurries through mid morning. Snow, moderate to heavy, developing late morning to around noon and continuing through most of the afternoon. Snow should decrease in intensity by 4 or 5 pm and end by 5 or 6 pm. Probability of precipitation near 100%. Likely snowfall totals 3-6″ with the lesser amounts in that range most likely in the lower elevations, particularly in South County, and the greater amounts over the elevated terrain to the east.

High temperatures in the low to mid 20s in Pittsfield, Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; mid 20s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; near 20 to low 20s over the elevated terrain.

East-southeasterly winds at 5-10 mph, shifting to northwesterly late in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night

A few lingering flurries early, then becoming partly cloudy.

Low temperatures in the mid teens.

West-northwest winds at 5-10 mph, becoming light southerly by morning.

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy, breezy and milder. A period of snow showers is likely during the afternoon. Probability of precipitation 70%. Snowfall totals a dusting  to no more than 1″.

High temperatures in the mid to upper 30s in Pittsfield, Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; upper 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; low to mid 30s over the elevated terrain.

Southerly winds at 10-15 early, veering to southwesterly late morning and then westerly during the afternoon.