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Summary: Snowfall totals reported to the National Weather Service are as follows: Stockbridge – 8.5″, Clarksburg – 9.5″, Pittsfield – 10″, Adams – 14.7″, Williamstown – 15″, Lanesborough – 16″ and Becket – 21″. Savoy reported 12.5″ but that was yesterday at 11 pm last night so I suspect they recieved closer to 18″. As expected, the heaviest band of snow overnight set up just to our west, over western Columbia and eastern Greene and Albany counties, as well as northern Ulster and Duchess counties. Snowfall totals in these regions were in the 18-27″ range. Fortunately (or I guess unfortunately if you are a snow lover) this band of heavy precipitation rotated through here fairly quickly, moving southeast to northwest, between around 11 pm and 1 am before setting up to our west. Most of that precipitation fell here as heavy sleet until the atmospheric column cooled enough to change the sleet to snow around 12:15 or so. It then snowed heavily for an hour or so before the band moved west. The snow did fall heavily at times after that, but not the persistent 1-3″/hour that they received in the strong “frontogenesis” band to our west.
As that surface low rockets away through the Canadian Maritime today another jet stream disturbance is rotating through the base of the same persistent jet stream trough. This upper-level disturbance is generating a weak surface low over Kentucky that is spreading a band of moderate snow into the Ohio Valley. As this low hits the Mid-Atlantic Coast tomorrow, it will intensify rapidly as it moves up the coast to the east of Cape Cod by tomorrow evening. By this point, it will be to far to the east to have too much of an impact on us, although eastern MA is likely to get another dumping of snow. We will see a fairly prolonged period of mostly light snow but should only get on the order of 2-4″ as the low slips by to our south from late morning through the evening tomorrow.
As this low departs, surface high pressure will build into the region in its wake for the remainder of the 3 day weekend. As a result, both Sunday and Monday should have some sunshine, with the greatest amounts on Monday. The sun is feeling pretty warm this time of year, which should help, but air temperatures will be quite cold as the northwest flow behind the departing surface low drags the cold axis of the upper-level trough directly over us. Therefore, temperatures will struggle to get out of the teens both days. In addition, the pressure gradient between the strong departing surface low and the incoming surface high pressure system will generate strong winds for Sunday so wind chills will be pretty low. The wind should die down on Monday so that will probably be the nicer of the 2 days.
The trough will begin to lift out to our northeast on Monday and the jet stream will temporarily become quite flat (zonally oriented) on Tuesday and Wednesday. As a result, a disturbance in the jet stream will have trouble producing much in the way of upward motion as it generates a weak surface low. That low will move directly over us on Tuesday with more snow but it should only be a minor event, possibly a few inches.
Once that low passes by, the jet stream will undergo a bit of a pattern shift that has been quite uncharacteristic for the past month. A trough will dig into the western U.S. and a ridge will build over the eastern U.S.. As a result, a warm front should move through here on Thursday and bring much milder weather for the end of the week and into next weekend. In fact, we could reach 50 degrees! Enjoy it while you can though since the long-range models are suggesting the jet stream may revert to its usual pattern (cold trough over the east) for the following week.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy and breezy this evening. Becoming mostly cloudy with light winds after midnight.
Low temperatures in the mid to upper teens.
Westerly winds at 10-15 mph this evening, becoming light after midnight and calm by morning.
Saturday
Overcast with snow developing mid to late morning and continuing through the afternoon. The snow should be mostly light, although there may be a few moderate bursts. Probability of precipitation 90%. Likely snowfall accumulations 1-3″ by evening.
High temperatures in the mid to upper 20s in Pittsfield, Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; upper 20s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; low to mid 20s over the elevated terrain.
Light easterly winds in the morning, shifting to northeasterly and then northerly at 5-10 mph during the afternoon.
Saturday Night
Snow through the evening, diminishing and ending by midnight. Probability of precipitation 80%. An additional inch of snow is likely with total accumulations of 2-4″ likely. The greater accumulations are more likely in the elevated terrain with the lesser amounts more likely in the lower elevations. Clearing skies, windy and becoming much colder after midnight.
Low temperatures near 10, single digits over the elevated terrain. Wind chill temperatures as low as -10.
Northwest winds at 10-20 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph.
Sunday
Partly cloudy, windy and much colder.
High temperatures in the mid to upper teens in Pittsfield; upper teens in Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; near 20 in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; low to mid teens over the elevated terrain. Wind chill temperatures in the single digits below zero at times.
West-northwest winds at 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
Sunday Night and Monday
Clear skies and very cold overnight. Mostly sunny on Monday, still cold but with lighter winds than Sunday.
Low temperatures in the single digits below zero Sunday night. High temperatures ranging from mid teens over the elevated terrain to low 20s in the lower elevations of South County.
Northwest winds at 10-15 mph Sunday evening lightening to 5-10 through Monday morning, becoming light during the afternoon.