Monday’s “snowstorm” is looking more and more like a complete miss, or nothing more than an inch or two. See yesterday’s post for a more in depth discussion. I hope to update this in more detail tomorrow afternoon.

Note: Clicking on underlined red text provides links to various weather maps.

Summary: The southern edge of an unseasonably cold arctic air mass will slide out of Canada and over New England behind this afternoon’s arctic cold front passage (which will be accompanied by widespread snow squalls). However, its stay will be brief, from tonight through Friday night, before the axis of the cold trough in the jet stream wave pattern lifts out to our northeast. As a result, we will have a bit of a reprieve from the bitter cold spell we have been in on Saturday, as temperatures climb well into the 20s.

At the surface, high pressure will build in for Friday so we will see considerable sunshine. However, despite the high sun angle this time of year, with snow/ice cover to reflect most of the incoming sunlight back into space there will be little success in warming the frigid arctic air mass. As a result, temperatures will struggle to rise from below zero temperatures in the morning to near 10 during the afternoon. To add insult to injury, winds will be fairly brisk both tonight and Friday so wind chill temperatures will drop into the teens below zero overnight tonight and hover around zero during Friday afternoon.

The high pressure system will shift to our east on Saturday, so there will be more cloudiness, but “milder” air will move in via the southwesterly return flow around the high pressure system (clockwise flow around highs).  A weak surface low pressure system moving by to our north will drag another, much weaker, cold front through Saturday night and into Sunday. This frontal passage will be accompanied by some snow showers and flurries, but nothing more than that.

It is at this point that the forecast gets tricky….the front will stall to our south and a surface low pressure system will develop in the lower Mississippi Valley Sunday night and move rapidly eastward along the front, moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast and out to sea well to the south and east of Cape Cod Monday afternoon and evening. The European Model (ECMWF) which has been the most consistent and accurate model with our many coastal storms this winter has been projecting the storm track close enough to the coast to give us a good dose of snow, on the order of 8-12″ during the day on Monday. The model has been very consistent with this solution since this past weekend. However, the most recent run projects a much stronger influence by cold high pressure over Canada, with the jet stream deflected more to the south, and the storm tracking out to sea well to our south. With this track we would only receive a few inches of snow at most.

The long range U.S. model (GFS) has been more inconsistent. In general, its’ solutions have projected the storm further south than the ECMWF but with a track that would still bring us 4-8″ accumulation. However, the latest run from this model has shifted the storm track further south as well, along a track that would bring us on the order of 3-6″.

So….here is what I think at this point. Despite the fact that March storms tend to carry quite a bit of moisture and precipitation, I think that the jet stream configuration looks way too zonally oriented (flat, west to east) over us on Monday to give us a big snowstorm. It looks like we will be at the northern edge of the precipitation shield and the storm will move by quickly. My best projection would be a light (2-4″) snowfall with southern regions receiving the most. However, I would not be surprised if this storm completely misses us. I plan to update this forecast late Saturday afternoon…..

Thursday Night

Snow squalls ending early this evening, by around 7 or 8 pm. Likely accumulation 1/2″-1″ in most locations. It will then becoming mostly clear, windy and bitterly cold.

Low temperatures in the low to mid single digits below zero. Wind chill temperatures will be in the teens to 20s below zero.

West-northwesterly winds at 10-20 mph with gusts 30-35 mph.

Friday

Mostly sunny in the morning, partly cloudy in the afternoon. Breezy and very cold.

High temperatures near 10 in Pittsfield; near 10 to low teens in Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; low teens in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; mid to upper single digits over the elevated terrain. Wind chill temperatures ranging from the teens below zero in the morning to near zero during the afternoon.

West-northwesterly winds at 10-15 mph during the morning, diminishing to 5-10 mph during the afternoon.

Friday Night

Mostly clear and very cold.

Low temperatures in the low single digits below zero.

Winds light and variable.

Saturday

Mixed clouds and sun and milder.

High temperatures in the upper 20s in Pittsfield, Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; near 30 in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; low to mid 20s over the elevated terrain.

South-southwesterly winds at 8-12 mph.

Note: Clicking on underlined red text provides links to various weather maps.

Summary: A broad and deep trough in the jet stream wave pattern has set up over central and eastern North America. This pattern has been recurring since early January which explains the prolonged period of cold weather we have endured since then. Since we are lying to the north of the jet stream, the cold air is sitting over us and will persist for the foreseeable future as this standing wave pattern enables the trough to form and reform over the same area until, the way it looks now, well into next week. The only “break” we will have from this unseasonably cold weather will be late in the weekend into early next week but that “break” may take the form of a significant snowstorm.

This unseasonably cold period over the next several days will be punctuated by repeated bouts of snow flurries and snow showers as weak disturbances in the jet stream rotate around the base of the broad trough and over the northeastern U.S.. Lake effect bands of snow showers and squalls will likely follow after the disturbances pass and the strong winds shift around to west-northwesterly. This should occur during the day on both Wednesday and Thursday. An arctic cold front will accompany the disturbance on Thursday so snow squall activity is the most likely on Thursday afternoon. The core of the cold air in the trough will slide in behind this front so that Friday will likely be the coldest day of the week, with temperatures struggling to get out of the single digits and into the teens despite a fair amount of sunshine.

So….expect temperatures to be down in the single digits overnight and teens during the day for the remainder of the week. It will feel even colder, with a persistently strong westerly wind.

Tuesday Night

Partly cloudy and cold. Breezy this evening with lightening winds after midnight.

Low temperatures in the mid to upper single digits, with some low single digits over the elevated terrain.

Westerly winds at 10-15 mph diminishing later in the evening and becoming light southwesterly after midnight.

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy, windy and cold with snow showers and flurries likely. Shower activity will be more prevalent during the morning but will likely persist in a lake effect band that will set up somewhere over the county during the afternoon. Probability of precipitation 70%. A dusting of snow is likely in many locations, with 1/2″-1″ possible in a few locations where snow showers persist.

High temperatures in the mid teens in Pittsfield; mid to upper teens in Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; upper teens in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; low teens over the elevated terrain. Wind chill temperatures ranging from the single digits below zero to single digits above zero.

West-northwesterly winds at 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Wednesday Night

Cold, with partly cloudy skies in the evening, becoming mostly cloudy after midnight.

Low temperatures in the low to mid single digits.

West-northwesterly winds at 5-10 mph in the evening, becoming light after midnight and shifting to southerly by morning.

Thursday

Mostly cloudy, windy and cold with snow showers likely. Snow squalls likely during the afternoon. Probability of precipitation 70%. Likely accumulations between 1/2″-2″.

High temperatures in the mid to upper teens in Pittsfield, Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; upper teens in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; low to mid teens over the elevated terrain. Wind chill temperatures ranging from the single digits below zero to single digits above zero.

Southerly winds at 10-20 mph during the morning, shifting to west northwesterly in the afternoon.

I have updated the weekend forecast on the BCC Weather Station page: https://www.rainwise.net/weather/bcc

Note: Clicking on underlined red text provides links to various weather maps.

Summary: A highly amplified, negatively-tilted jet stream trough over the western U.S. is generating a deep surface low pressure system along its eastern margin in the Midwest today. This system has a well developed classic midlatitude cyclone structure, with a warm front extending out well to the east of the surface low and a strong cold front extending well to the south of the low. As the cold front plows into the unstable air in the warm sector (between the two fronts) it will generate a squall line (at the cold front) and a few pre-frontal bands of thunderstorms. The air in the warm sector is unstable and there is enough vertical wind shear so that some supercell thunderstorms will likely form late this afternoon over the lower Mississippi Valley and then the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys overnight as the cold front plows eastward. The Storm Prediction Center has forecast a moderate probability of severe thunderstorms in parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, mainly for strong winds and hail, although there is a 5% probability of tornadoes within 25 miles of any point within this region. It is only late February, but we are already heading into tornado season (March-June, with a peak in May). There is no concern for severe thunderstorms here since, by the time the cold front reaches us late in the day on Friday, it will be moving into much more stable air.

The center of the low is located over the upper Mississippi River near the Iowa, Missouri Illinois borders. As a result, heavy snow is falling to the northwest of this low, in Iowa and Minnesota. As the low moves northeastward, through the western Great Lakes tonight, northern and western Wisconsin will also receive heavy snow. As the low moves through the Great Lakes and into Canada, it will pull its warm front over us tonight and, eventually, drag its cold front through here late in the day tomorrow.

We will see the typical progression of precipitation types associated with a warm frontal passage this time of year overnight. Precipitation will likely be moderate to heavy at times from around 7 pm until well after midnight tonight with liquid total precipitation equivalent of 0.25″-0.50″ from southern into central Berkshire and 0.50″-0.75″ from central into northern parts of the county. The precipitation will likely start as snow but then changeover fairly quickly to sleet (ice pellets), by 9 pm or so. The changeover will be a little sooner to the south and a little later to the north. It may snow hard at the outset, particularly in North County, with only a dusting in South County, a dusting to 1″ in central Berkshire with 1-2″ possible in North County. The higher elevations in North County may see as much as 2-3″. The sleet will then change fairly rapidly to rain and freezing rain, by 9 or 10 pm in South County and 11 pm or midnight in North County. There should only be a coating of sleet on top of whatever snow falls.

Beyond this changeover the forecast gets tricky. As the precipitation changes to liquid form, temperatures will be at or just above freezing in the lower elevations but near 30 over the elevated terrain. Temperatures will rise very gradually after midnight so, even if the rain freezes initially in the lower elevations, there should not be much ice accumulation there as temperatures that are not over 32 at the outset will rise above this level shortly after rain starts falling. Over the elevated terrain, freezing rain may persist all night, with temperatures not rising above freezing until the steady rain ends about 4 am. Therefore, in the elevated terrain of central to northern Berkshire as much as 0.25″ of ice could accumulate on some surfaces. Hopefully, this will not be enough to create any power outages. In any case, travel may be treacherous everywhere this evening for a time, with the risk greater and for a longer period in North County. After midnight conditions should improve in the lower elevations but may remain slipper over the elevated terrain for a time.

Steady rain and freezing rain should end by 4 am with only spotty drizzle or freezing drizzle persisting through the morning hours. Any freezing drizzle over the elevated terrain should change to plain drizzle by daybreak or shortly thereafter as temperatures rise above freezing. We will be in the warm sector for a good part of the day but cold air is likely to be trapped near the ground so temperatures will likely have trouble rising out of the 30s in most locations. The approaching cold front will generate a band of steady rain that will move through from mid afternoon until evening. The rain may mix with a little wet snow for a brief period before it ends early Friday evening.

Once this mess clears Friday evening, it looks like we are in for a fairly nice weekend as surface high pressure builds in to give us mostly sunny skies and mild temperatures on Saturday, although it will be breezy. A weak, secondary cold front will rotate through Saturday night with nothing more than the chance of a few mixed snow and rain showers. Sunday should be a little cooler, but high temperatures will still be in the 30s, with partly cloudy skies.

Don’t get too used to the milder temperatures because it looks like a deep trough in the jet stream will settle over us next week and allow a cold arctic air mass for this late in the winter to drift south over us from Canada by late in the week and into the weekend.

Thursday Night

Snow developing by 7 or 8 pm, changing rapidly to sleet and then rain in South County. In central and northern Berkshire the snow and sleet will likely persist a little longer, with snow changing to sleet by 9 or 10 pm and then rain or freezing rain by 11 pm. In the lower elevations, temperatures will be near or just above freezing at the onset of the rain but then will rise gradually so if there is any freezing rain it should change to plain rain by midnight or just after. Freezing rain could persist in some spots in the elevated terrain. Likely snowfall totals a dusting in South County, a dusting to 1″ in central Berkshire and 1-2″ in North County. Ice accumulation should be minor in the lower elevations but could reach 0.10″- 0.25″ in a few locations in the elevated terrain. Any rain/freezing rain should taper to drizzle or freezing drizzle by 4 am or so. Probability of precipitation near 100%. Liquid equivalent totals 0.25-0.50″ South County to central Berkshire and 0.50-0.75″ in North County.

Low temperatures this evening in the low 30s, near 30 over the elevated terrain. Temperatures rising a few degrees after midnight, reaching the low to mid 30s by morning.

Light east-southeasterly winds this evening, increasing to 5-10 mph by morning.

Friday

Overcast with spotty light rain and drizzle until mid-afternoon. A steadier period of rain and showers developing mid-afternoon and continuing until early evening. Probability of precipitation 90%. Likely rainfall totals 0.20-0.35″.

High temperatures in the upper 30s in Pittsfield; near 40 in Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; low 40s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; mid 30s over the elevated terrain.

East-southeasterly winds at 5-10 mph, shifting to westerly late.

Friday Night

Some lingering clouds early, then becoming mostly clear.

Low temperatures in the mid 20s.

West-southwesterly winds at 5-10 mph.

Saturday

Mostly sunny, breezy and mild. Clouds may increase late in North County with just the slight chance of a rain shower there toward evening.

High temperatures in the mid 40s in Pittsfield, Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; mid to upper 40s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; low 40s over the elevated terrain.

Southwesterly winds at 10-15 mph.

Saturday Night and Sunday

Variable clouds with the chance of a rain or snow shower, mainly before midnight. Turning colder after midnight with low temperatures in the low 20s. Sunday will likely be partly cloudy and cooler, with high temperatures in the 30s.

Note: Clicking on underlined red text provides links to various weather maps.

Summary: Another disturbance, similar to today’s, will ripple along the zonally oriented jet stream and over Berkshire County tomorrow. However, an importance difference with today’s situation is that the lower levels of the atmosphere (the lowest 5000 feet or so) will be much milder tomorrow, hovering near the freezing mark. As a result, there will likely be mixed rain and snow across the county, with rain more likely in the lower elevations, particularly in South County with wet snow over the elevated terrain.

The precipitation should begin around noon and come down fairly hard for 2 or 3 hours. We should receive about 0.25″ of liquid equivalent. Any snow in the lower elevations should be limited to a slushy inch or so but the higher terrain could receive 1-3″ during a brief period of heavy snow between around noon and 3 pm. Towards evening any precipitation will turn to snow everywhere as we see some lingering light snow and snow showers well into the evening.

Travel should not be as treacherous as today in the valley locations as temperatures will be in the 30s in most locations so roads should be predominantly wet, even if it snows. However, during the period of heavy snow over the elevated terrain during early to mid afternoon, roads could become snow covered and slippery as snowfall rates may reach 1-2″/hour and temperatures will be hovering around the freezing mark.

Sunshine should make a return on Thursday and it will become much milder, reaching 40 in many locations as surface high pressure builds in briefly. A surface low pressure system will move through the western Great Lakes on Thursday night and Friday. It will push its warm front through here with some rain showers Thursday night. This will put us, briefly, in the warm sector of the cyclone on Friday. As a result, temperatures should rise into the 40s on Friday before the low’s trailing cold front moves through late in the day on Friday with another band of rain showers.

Tuesday Night

A few lingering snow flurries early this evening, then becoming partly to mostly cloudy for the remainder of the night.

Low temperatures in the mid teens.

Light west-northwesterly winds this evening, becoming light southerly after midnight.

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy and milder in the morning. A period of moderate to heavy mixed rain and wet snow is likely between about noon and 3 pm. Rain is more likely in the lower elevations, particularly in South County. Snow is more likely over the elevated terrain. Precipitaion should change to all snow late in the afternoon with intermittent light snow or snow showers continuing into the evening. Probability of precipitation 90%. Total liquid equivalent 0.25-0.30″. Any snowfall accumulations in the lower elevations should be limited to a slushy inch or less. The elevated terrain could receive 1-3″ of snow.

High temperatures in the mid 30s in Pittsfield; mid to upper 30s in Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; upper 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; near 30 to the low 30s over the elevated terrain.

Southeasterly winds at 5-10 mph, shifting to westerly late.

Wednesday Night

A few lingering snow showers and flurries early, then becoming partly cloudy and breezy.

Low temperatures near 20.

West-northwest winds increasing to 1o-20 mph during the evening, diminishing toward morning.

Thursday

Mostly sunny in the morning, increasing clouds during the afternoon. Mild.

High temperatures near 40 in Pittsfield; near 40 to low 40s in Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; low 40s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; mid to upper 30s over the elevated terrain.

West-northwesterly winds at 5-10 mph in the morning, becoming light southerly during the afternoon.

It appears that the heaviest band of snow will slide just to our east this afternoon. As a result, snowfall totals should be a little less than originally expected, on the order of 2-4″. In addition, the burst of snow with tomorrow’s disturbance looks to be heavier, with 1-3″ falling from late morning to mid-afternoon.

Note: Clicking on underlined red text provides links to various weather maps.

Summary: The jet stream disturbance moving our way for tomorrow is much more vigorous than it appeared it would be when I made Friday’s forecast. The disturbance is moving rapidly eastward, being propelled by a zonally oriented jet stream. This rapid motion is not permitting much development of a surface low pressure system but is generating very strong vertical motion in the atmosphere. As a result, there is a relatively narrow band of heavy snow falling in the Midwest this afternoon. This band will move rapidly eastward, arriving here by late morning on Tuesday. Even though the resulting period of snow will be relatively short, it will fall heavily at times during the afternoon. As a result, snowfall totals look to be in the 3-6″ range, with the lower end of that range most likely in the lower elevations, particularly in South County, and the higher end of that range more likely over the elevated terrain to the east. Snow will likely begin falling lightly and intermittently in the early to mid morning but then should begin falling moderately to heavy by late morning to around noon. Snow will then continue moderately to heavy, occasionally 1″/hour, through the afternoon as the disturbance moves directly over Berkshire County. Snow should diminish in intensity by 4 or 5 pm and then end by 5 or 6 pm.

Another weak disturbance will roll through Wednesday afternoon and give us another bout of light snow or snow showers. Accumulations should be light, however, on the order of a dusting to 1″ and travel will likely not be an issue with temperatures then in the 30s. We should then get a bit of a reprieve from our endless winter on Thursday and Friday as a warm front moves through Thursday and temperatures “soar” into the 40s on Thursday and Friday. A cold front will move through late on Friday with a band of rain or rain showers. It looks dry at this point over the weekend with seasonable temperatures in the 30s.

Monday Night

Increasing and thickening cloudiness this evening. Becoming overcast after midnight.

Low temperatures in the upper single digits to around 10.

Winds light and variable this evening, becoming east-southeasterly at 5-10 mph after midnight.

Tuesday

Intermittent light snow or snow flurries through mid morning. Snow, moderate to heavy, developing late morning to around noon and continuing through most of the afternoon. Snow should decrease in intensity by 4 or 5 pm and end by 5 or 6 pm. Probability of precipitation near 100%. Likely snowfall totals 3-6″ with the lesser amounts in that range most likely in the lower elevations, particularly in South County, and the greater amounts over the elevated terrain to the east.

High temperatures in the low to mid 20s in Pittsfield, Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; mid 20s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; near 20 to low 20s over the elevated terrain.

East-southeasterly winds at 5-10 mph, shifting to northwesterly late in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night

A few lingering flurries early, then becoming partly cloudy.

Low temperatures in the mid teens.

West-northwest winds at 5-10 mph, becoming light southerly by morning.

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy, breezy and milder. A period of snow showers is likely during the afternoon. Probability of precipitation 70%. Snowfall totals a dusting  to no more than 1″.

High temperatures in the mid to upper 30s in Pittsfield, Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; upper 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; low to mid 30s over the elevated terrain.

Southerly winds at 10-15 early, veering to southwesterly late morning and then westerly during the afternoon.

Note: Clicking on underlined red text provides links to various weather maps.

Summary: Snowfall totals reported to the National Weather Service are as follows: Stockbridge – 8.5″, Clarksburg – 9.5″, Pittsfield – 10″, Adams – 14.7″, Williamstown – 15″, Lanesborough – 16″ and Becket – 21″. Savoy reported 12.5″ but that was yesterday at 11 pm last night so I suspect they recieved closer to 18″. As expected, the heaviest band of snow overnight set up just to our west, over western Columbia and eastern Greene and Albany counties, as well as northern Ulster and Duchess counties. Snowfall totals in these regions were in the 18-27″ range. Fortunately (or I guess unfortunately if you are a snow lover) this band of heavy precipitation rotated through here fairly quickly, moving southeast to northwest, between around 11 pm and 1 am before setting up to our west. Most of that precipitation fell here as heavy sleet until the atmospheric column cooled enough to change the sleet to snow around 12:15 or so. It then snowed heavily for an hour or so before the band moved west. The snow did fall heavily at times after that, but not the persistent 1-3″/hour that they received in the strong “frontogenesis” band to our west.

As that surface low rockets away through the Canadian Maritime today another jet stream disturbance is rotating through the base of the same persistent jet stream trough. This upper-level disturbance is generating a weak surface low over Kentucky that is spreading a band of moderate snow into the Ohio Valley. As this low hits the Mid-Atlantic Coast tomorrow, it will intensify rapidly as it moves up the coast to the east of Cape Cod by tomorrow evening. By this point, it will be to far to the east to have too much of an impact on us, although eastern MA is likely to get another dumping of snow. We will see a fairly prolonged period of mostly light snow but should only get on the order of 2-4″ as the low slips by to our south from late morning through the evening tomorrow.

As this low departs, surface high pressure will build into the region in its wake for the remainder of the 3 day weekend. As a result, both Sunday and Monday should have some sunshine, with the greatest amounts on Monday. The sun is feeling pretty warm this time of year, which should help, but air temperatures will be quite cold as the northwest flow behind the departing surface low drags the cold axis of the upper-level trough directly over us. Therefore, temperatures will struggle to get out of the teens both days. In addition, the pressure gradient between the strong departing surface low and the incoming surface high pressure system will generate strong winds for Sunday so wind chills will be pretty low. The wind should die down on Monday so that will probably be the nicer of the 2 days.

The trough will begin to lift out to our northeast on Monday and the jet stream will temporarily become quite flat (zonally oriented) on Tuesday and Wednesday. As a result, a disturbance in the jet stream will have trouble producing much in the way of upward motion as it generates a weak surface low. That low will move directly over us on Tuesday with more snow but it should only be a minor event, possibly a few inches.

Once that low passes by, the jet stream will undergo a bit of a pattern shift that has been quite uncharacteristic for the past month. A trough will dig into the western U.S. and a ridge will build over the eastern U.S.. As a result, a warm front should move through here on Thursday and bring much milder weather for the end of the week and into next weekend. In fact, we could reach 50 degrees! Enjoy it while you can though since the long-range models are suggesting the jet stream may revert to its usual pattern (cold trough over the east) for the following week.

Friday Night

Partly cloudy and breezy this evening. Becoming mostly cloudy with light winds after midnight.

Low temperatures in the mid to upper teens.

Westerly winds at 10-15 mph this evening, becoming light after midnight and calm by morning.

Saturday

Overcast with snow developing mid to late morning and continuing through the afternoon. The snow should be mostly light, although there may be a few moderate bursts. Probability of precipitation 90%. Likely snowfall accumulations 1-3″ by evening.

High temperatures in the mid to upper 20s in Pittsfield, Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; upper 20s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; low to mid 20s over the elevated terrain.

Light easterly winds in the morning, shifting to northeasterly and then northerly at 5-10 mph during the afternoon.

Saturday Night

Snow through the evening, diminishing and ending by midnight. Probability of precipitation 80%. An additional inch of snow is likely with total accumulations of 2-4″ likely. The greater accumulations are more likely in the elevated terrain with the lesser amounts more likely in the lower elevations. Clearing skies, windy and becoming much colder after midnight.

Low temperatures near 10, single digits over the elevated terrain. Wind chill temperatures as low as -10.

Northwest winds at 10-20 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph.

Sunday

Partly cloudy, windy and much colder.

High temperatures in the mid to upper teens in Pittsfield; upper teens in Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; near 20 in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; low to mid teens over the elevated terrain. Wind chill temperatures in the single digits below zero at times.

West-northwest winds at 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Sunday Night and Monday

Clear skies and very cold overnight. Mostly sunny on Monday, still cold but with lighter winds than Sunday.

Low temperatures in the single digits below zero Sunday night. High temperatures ranging from mid teens over the elevated terrain to low 20s in the lower elevations of South County.

Northwest winds at 10-15 mph Sunday evening lightening to 5-10 through Monday morning, becoming light during the afternoon.

Note: Clicking on underlined red text provides links to various weather maps.

Summary: Still don’t see much change in the forecast. Things are pretty much progressing as expected. The dry slot which has rotated into the center of the storm is now moving over Berkshire County (4:30 pm) and the last band of heavy snow is moving south to north through the county. Precipitation should pretty much shut down within the next hour. There will be intermittent spotty mixed precipitation, mostly sleet (ice pellets) through the evening hours. Between 10 pm and midnight the band of precipitation wrapping around the back of the low will begin to move into the county. Right now, this feature is represented by an area of heavy snow and rain over Virginia, Maryland and Delaware. It still looks like the heaviest of this precipitation should stay just to our west. Precipitation will become steady and increase in intensity between 10 pm and midnight. The precipitation should start as sleet and we may see 1/2″ to 1″ of ice pellets accumulate before the sleet changes to snow between midnight and 1 am. Snow will continue, varying in intensity, for the remainder of the night and begin to taper off around daybreak. Most likely additional snow accumulations for this period will be 3-6″. In contrast to today’s snow, the heaviest amounts overnight are most likely in the northwestern parts of the county. Light snow may persist for a good part of the morning as the wrap around moisture is lifted by the elevated terrain. In fact, intermittent snow showers and/or flurries may persist into the afternoon. An additional dusting to 1″ of snow may fall during the day. Most likely storm total snow accumulations will be 10-16″.

Believe it or not, we will only get a brief break from the snow. After this storm departs, another jet stream disturbance will quickly follow, rotating through the base of the same trough. As a result, a much weaker surface low pressure system will scoot off the coast to our south on Saturday. A period of light snow is likely from mid-morning to mid-afternoon. Likely accumulations will be 1-3″.

Thursday Night

Overcast and breezy. Intermittent and spotty light mixed precipitation, mostly sleet until sometime between 10 pm and midnight. Sleet will then become steady and increase in intensity before changing to snow by midnight to 1 am. Snow, varying in intensity, for the remainder of the night. Snow will begin to taper off by daybreak. Probability of precipitation near 100%. Likely sleet accumulation of 1/2″ to 1″. Likely additional snowfall 3-6″, with the greatest amounts in northern and western portions of the county.

Temperatures will remain steady for most of the night and then drop a few degrees late. Low temperatures generally in the low 20s, near 20 over the elevated terrain.

Northeasterly winds at 10-20 mph, with gusts 30-35 mph, shifting to northwesterly after midnight.

Friday

Mostly cloudy and windy with light snow likely continuing off and on through most of the morning, scattered snow showers or flurries possible into the afternoon. Partial clearing late. Probability of precipitation 60%. Additional snowfall a dusting to 1″. Most likely storm total snow accumulation 10-16″.

High temperatures in the mid to upper 20s in Pittsfield, Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; upper 20s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; low to mid 20s over the elevated terrain.

West-northwesterly winds at 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35-40 mph.

Friday Night

Partly cloudy with diminishing winds in the evening, becoming overcast after midnight.

Low temperatures in the mid teens, low teens over the elevated terrain.

Westerly winds at 5-10 mph during the evening, becoming calm after midnight.

Saturday

Overcast with light snow likely, developing early to mid morning and continuing through mid-afternoon. Probability of precipitation 70%. Likely snowfall accumulations 1-3″.

High temperatures mid 20s in Pittsfield, Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; mid to upper 20s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; near 20 to low 20s over the elevated terrain.

Light northeasterly winds in the morning, shifting to northwesterly at 5-10 mph in the afternoon.