Note: Clicking on underlined red text provides links to various weather maps.
Summary: An arctic front moved through this afternoon with a line of snow squalls. Cold, dense arctic air is sinking southward behind the front. As of 5 pm, temperatures had already fallen into the single digits in central and northern VT and the Adirondacks. This cold, arctic air is descending into the base of the trough in the jet stream wave pattern which has set up shop over the eastern U.S. and will serve to deepen the trough and nudge it somewhat eastward. Meanwhile, a disturbance in the jet stream flow pattern is rotating through the base of this trough and has generated a weak area of surface low pressure over the Midwest and is generating snow showers over Iowa, Wisconsin and Illinois. This surface low pressure system will intensify as it moves east tonight, reaching the Mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday (tomorrow). We will be along the northwestern margin of the snow shield associated with this low Tuesday evening. The computer model guidance is still fairly divergent as to where this margin will be. Therefore, even a slight shift will affect accumulation totals. Right now it looks like southeastern portions of the county will receive the most snowfall and northwestern locations the least. I would estimate a dusting to 2″ is most likely in the northwest (e.g. Williamstown) with 1-3″ in most other locations and 2-4″ possible in the southeast (e.g. Otis, Sandisfield). This storm could still be a complete miss (note that I have a 60% chance [likely] of precipitation for tomorrow night) but I think that is unlikely given the trend this winter with these types of storms. I will update this forecast tomorrow afternoon…
Light snow will likely develop around dinner time Tuesday and then taper off after midnight. It will be cold tomorrow but once the storm departs it will become windy and even colder, with dangerous wind chills for the remainder of the work week, right through Friday. There is no end to the cold weather in sight either. Temperatures may moderate a little on Saturday but then take another nose dive on Sunday as another arctic front dives into the trough.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, breezy and turning sharply colder.
Low temperatures in the low single digits, mid single digits in South County and near zero over the elevated terrain.
West-northwesterly winds at 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph, diminishing to 5-10 mph after midnight.
Tuesday
Increasing clouds during the morning, overcast with light snow likely developing towards evening.
High temperatures in the low teens in Pittsfield, Adams, NorthAdams and Williamstown; low to mid teens in Lee and Stockbridge; mid teens in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; upper single digits to around 10 over the elevated terrain.
Northwesterly winds at 5-10 mph in the morning, shifting to northerly in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
Light snow likely, tapering off after midnight. Becoming breezy and very cold, with dangerously low wind chills by morning. Probability of precipitation 60%. Most likely snowfall totals a dusting to 2″ in the northwest (e.g. Williamstown), 1-3″ most other locations, 2-4″ in the southeast (e.g. Otis).
Low temperatures in the low single digits below zero, near zero in South County and mid single digits below zero in the elevated terrain and parts of North County. Wind chill temperatures in the teens below zero at times by morning.
Northerly winds at 5-10 mph, shifting to northwesterly and increasing to 10-15 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph after midnight.
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy in the morning, becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. Windy and brutally cold.
High temperatures in the low to mid single digits in Pittsfield, Adams, NorthAdams, Williamstown, mid single digits in Lee and Stockbridge; mid to upper single digits in Great Barrington and Sheffield and: near zero to low single digits over the elevated terrain. Wind chill temperatures occasionally in the teens below zero.
Northwesterly winds at 10-20 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph.