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Summary: The weak surface low pressure system moving through tomorrow looks like it may intensify a little more than it appeared yesterday when it hits the coast. Therefore, snowfall totals look to be slightly higher than yesterday’s estimate. By the time the snow winds down during the evening, likely accumulations should be in the 1-3″ range for most areas, with the lesser amounts in that range in the lower elevations of South County and the greater amounts in the higher elevations and in North County. There may even be a few isolated 4″ or 5″ amounts in the elevated terrain to the north and east (e.g. Savoy, Florida, Peru). The models have been trending toward higher amounts of liquid equivalent precipitation with each model run, with this afternoon’s runs suggesting a 2-4″ accumulation, so I would not be surprised to see slightly higher amounts than the forecast 1-3″. However, I am always wary of these rapidly moving, intensifying coastal lows since they frequently scoot just to our east before they can really get going. I will try to update my snowfall estimates after more information becomes available later tonight. In any case, the timing looks like this: Light snow or snow showers will likely develop toward morning with only a dusting or so by daybreak. Snow will then continue off and on for the daylight hours and may be moderate at times. There may be a pause in the snow during the early to mid afternoon. The bulk of the snow will occur during the day with 1-3″ totals by evening. However, it looks like light snow may linger well into the evening so an additional 0.5″ or so could fall before midnight.

Snow showers and flurries are also likely on Sunday with some lake-effect early and then the approaching arctic front late in the day. Snow showers/squalls are still possible on Monday as the front moves through. Additional snowfall totals for Sunday and Monday should be in the dusting to 1″ range although if a line of heavier snow squalls develops on Monday there may be 1-2″ totals in a few spots. After the arctic front passes, temperatures will plummet and may get no higher than the single digits for both Tuesday and Wednesday.

The long-range models are suggesting we could get another little coastal low, similar to tomorrow, on Thursday or Friday and then, possibly, a larger storm late in the weekend which will usher in the next arctic air mass. So it looks like our January thaw is finished and that we are returning to winter weather for the foreseeable future….

Friday Night

Increasing cloudiness with light snow or snow showers likely developing by daybreak. Probability of precipitation 60%. Likely snowfall totals a dusting.

Low temperatures in the mid 20s.

Calm winds.

Saturday

Intermittent snow. Snow may be moderate at times. There may be a pause in the snowfall during the early to mid afternoon. Probability of precipitation 80%. Likely snowfall totals 1-3″ by evening, with the lesser amounts in that range in the lower elevations in South County and the higher amounts in the elevated terrain and in North County. A few spots over the elevated terrain to the north (e.g. Savoy, Florida, Peru) may see as much as 4″ or 5″.

High temperatures in the near 30 in Pittsfield; low 30s in Adams, NorthAdams, Williamstown, Lee and Stockbridge; low to mid 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; mid to upper 20s over the elevated terrain.

Easterly winds at 5-10 mph, shifting to northwesterly late.

Saturday Night

Light snow or snow showers likely until midnight. Breezy. Remaining mostly cloudy after midnight. Probability of precipitation 60%. Additional snowfall accumulations of a dusting to 0.5″ possible.

Low temperatures near 20, upper teens over the elevated terrain.

West-northwesterly winds at 10-15 mph, with gusts 25-30mph during the evening, diminishing after midnight.

Sunday

Mostly cloudy, breezy and colder, with snow showers or flurries likely. Probability of precipitation 60%. A dusting is likely in some locations.

High temperatures in the mid 20s in Pittsfield; mid to upper 20s in Adams, NorthAdams, Williamstown, Lee and Stockbridge; upper 20s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and: low 20s over the elevated terrain. Wind chill temperatures occasionally in the teens.

Southwesterly winds at 10-15 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph.