Berkshire County Forecast-Monday, February 18

The forecast has not changed much since yesterday. I expect it to be mostly sunny and turning mild in the morning tomorrow with increasing clouds through mid-afternoon. Temperatures will approach 40 in many locations. Fairly steady precipitation should begin sometime between 3 and 5 pm and end around 8 or 9 pm. My take on precipitation type or snow accumulation has not changed since yesterday. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s when the precipitation starts but will drop quickly once it begins. It may start as a brief period of rain or mixed rain or snow over the elevated terrain and hilltowns but should turn rapidly to all snow. I think it more likely that it will be snow for the duration in those locations. In the lower elevations, the rain or mix will likely last longer, as much as an hour, before it turns to all snow. Temperatures should remain at freezing or just above freezing in all locations for most of the event so the roads should remain mostly wet, with accumulations predominantly on grassy surfaces, although there will likely eventually be some snow cover on the secondary roads in the elevated terrain. I think the most likely accumulations would be a coating to 1″ in the lower elevations and 1-2″ in the elevated terrain and hilltowns with a few spots getting as much as 3″ (can you say “Peru”). After the cold front moves by, and the steady snow ends, some scattered lake effect snow showers will likely develop overnight without any additional accumulation other than a dusting. It will turn colder and breezy on Wednesday with mostly cloudy skies and scattered lake-effect snow showers, mostly in central and northern Berkshire. However, it will not be as windy or frigid as the conditions we experienced the past few days. Temperatures will remain in the 20s on Wednesday and then drop into the single digits Wednesday night. Temperatures should become more seasonable by Friday. It is beginning to look like there is a fairly strong likelihood that we could get some snow over the weekend. I will update this tomorrow….