Summary: As I write this (2:00) the precipitation shield associated with the advancing cold front is just to our west. From surface reports I am seeing I think we are going to get pretty much all wet snow, even at lower elevations (the larger towns). Temperatures are in the low 40s in the lower elevations but dew points are in the low 20s so I think any rain that falls at the onset will turn rapidly to wet snow as temperatures drop into the low to mid 30s. It should be all snow in the elevated terrain and hilltowns where temperatures are, even now, in the low to mid 30s. There will be a period of snow that should be fairly steady (although it will vary in intensity) for several hours and then end by 8 pm or so with another brief band of snow showers following behind by a few hours (around 10 or 11 pm). I do not think the accumulation outlook is much different than yesterday. Most places in the lower elevations should get around 1″ with closer to 2″ in the elevated terrain where a few spots may receive as much as 3″. Even though temperatures will be near freezing, the roads may become snow or slush covered after nightfall, particularly on the secondary roads over the elevated terrain.

After our brief respite today, winter will again return to Berkshire County as the cold front passage opens the door to 2 days of cloudy, windy and cold conditions with occasional bouts of scattered lake-effect snow showers. The weather will moderate on Friday as weak surface high pressure temporarily builds in with some sunshine and more seasonable temperatures.

A trough in the jet stream wave pattern moving out of the Rockies will generate a surface low pressure system that will give the Great Plains heavy snow on Thursday. This trough will flatten out and the  surface low will subsequently die as it moves east through the Great Lakes. What remains of the trough (low amplitude) will probably generate a weak coastal low off the Mid-Atlantic coast Saturday night and Sunday. We may get a little snow (possibly none) from this system but it certainly doesn’t look like anything plowable right now.

Tuesday Night

The period of wet snow which begins this afternoon should end by 8 pm or so, followed by another brief period of snow showers a few hours later. Skies will remain mostly cloudy after midnight with a few scattered lake-effect snow showers in central and northern Berkshire with partial clearing in South County. Probability of precipitation near 100%. Snowfall accumulations around 1″ in the lower elevations, 2″ with as much as 3″ more likely over the elevated terrain.

Temperatures will remain near freezing until around midnight and then fall fairly quickly after midnight. Low temperatures should reach near 20 in most locations by morning, mid to upper teens over the elevated terrain and hilltowns.

Southwest winds at 5-10 mph in the evening will shift to west-northwest after midnight and increase to 10-20 mph.

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy, quite breezy and cold. Intermittent lake-effect snow showers are likely, particularly over central and northern Berkshire, particularly in upslope regions (west and northwest facing terrain). Probability of precipitation 60%, 40% in South County. There will likely be a dusting of snow in some locations with up to 1″ in a few spots over the higher terrain.

High temperatures in the low to mid 20s in Pittsfield, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, mid 20s in Great Barrington and Sheffield, and upper teens to near 20 over the elevated terrain and hilltowns. Wind chill temperatures occasionally dropping to the single digits to low teens.

West-northwest winds at 10-20 mph (wind speed increasing with elevation) with occasional gusts over 30 mph.

Wednesday Night

Remaining mostly cloudy, breezy and cold with a chance of a lake-effect snow shower or flurry in the evening. Probability of precipitation 30%. Nothing more than a dusting.

Low temperatures in the low teens in most locations, upper single digits over the elevated terrain. Wind chill temperatures will occasionally drop to 0 to -10.

West-northwest winds will continue to blow at 10-20 mph (wind speed increasing with elevation) with occaisional gusts over 30 mph.

Thursday

Remaining mostly cloudy, breezy and cold. There may be some partial clearing in the afternoon, particularly in South County. There is still the chance of a few scattered lake-effect snow showers or flurries. Probability of precipitation 30%.

High temperatures in the low to mid 20s in Pittsfield, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, mid to upper 20s in Great Barrington and Sheffield, and upper teens to low 20s over the elevated terrain and hilltowns (depending on elevation). Wind chill as low as the upper single digits to lower teens.

Northwest winds at 10-20 mph (wind speed increasing with elevation) with occaisional gusts over 30 mph.