Summary: I would like to say that I am surprised at all of the school closures, including BCC, for today, but I am not. I do understand why those responsible made this decision. However, as usual, the actual potential impacts for Berkshire County may have been lost in the tremendous amount of hype. Really, despite how dangerous this storm is for many areas, for us, it is just a very windy day. In fact, the really strong winds won’t occur until late this afternoon. Interestingly, to my eye, even the Weather Channel is doing a fairly responsible job of reporting the scientific facts surrounding this unusual and historic storm. However, the way the material is presented sometimes conveys a global sense of overwhelming catastrophe for the entire Northeast, even though the potential for real catastrophe is generally limited to the immediate coastal areas. For those coastal areas, anyone remaining behind is at risk of significant flooding impacts. Winds along the coast will also be MUCH higher than inland with widespread hurricane force gusts. In addition, 5-10 inches of rainfall in parts of PA, NJ, MD and DE will result in significant “rainfall” flooding away from the coast and heavy, wet snow is occurring, with 2 feet of snow expected in the mountains of West Virginia and western Virginia. Interestingly, what may get lost in the hype, and the usual perception by the population that this event was not as bad as predicted, is that lives will likely have been saved because we now have the technology to have predicted the track and intensity of this storm several days in advance. I think the sense that these storms are “over” predicted is somewhat a matter of perception due to the way the information is presented, not the actual facts that are presented. I think part of the problem is the level of excitement being conveyed by meteorologists (and I am probably guilty of this as well) because this storm is so unusual and interesting from a scientific standpoint. From a purely scientific standpoint, this storm has been incredibly well predicted by the computer models so far.
The latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has sustained winds at 90 mph and is moving northwest at 28 mph. The barometric pressure has fallen to 940 mb! Wind gusts in NYC have already reached 66 mph (JFK) with a barometric pressure of 28.84 inches (975 mb). This is an incredibly low pressure, particularly considering that the storm center is 100 miles southwest of NYC. Wind gusts of 80 mph have been recorded in Montauk, in eastern LI. Coastal flooding is already occurring. Storm surges are already over 5ft. in the NYC area and along the New Jersey coast. Conditions will continue to deteriorate until the storm makes landfall in about 4 hours.
Back to Berkshire County, really, this is just a very windy day for us. In particular, the strongest winds are not expected until late afternoon. That being said, the BCC weather station, as of 1:30 pm is recording wind gusts in the 30s. However, winds are stronger in the hilltowns to the east where power outages are already occurring (e.g. Savoy). Barometric pressure has already fallen to 29.24 inches (990 mb). The winds will be strongest from about 4-8pm when gusts will reach 50 mph in the lowest elevations to up to 75 mph in higher elevations. Rainfall will be heavy for a time late this afternoon into this evening but it still looks like we will only receive 1.50 to 2.00 inches by the time the significant rain ends by Tuesday around noon.
Monday Afternoon
Rain, heavy at times. Probability of precipitation 100%. Rainfall totals between 0.50 and 0.75 inches.
Temperatures steady in the mid 50s, with some upper 50s in South County and low 50s in the hilltowns.
Wind increasing to 25-40 mph with gusts from 50 mph to 70 mph (depending on elevation) late.
Monday Night
Rain, heavy at times in the evening. Rainfall will become more showery and lighter after midnight. Probability of precipitation 100%. Rainfall totals of 0.25 to 0.50 inches will fall, mostly before midnight.
Temperatures will hold steady or even rise a few degrees as somewhat tropical air moves in with the storm.
The high winds discussed for Monday afternoon will hold through the evening hours and then diminish to 20-30 mph by midnight. Winds will shift to the east after midnight and diminish to 15-25 mph by daybreak. Some stronger gusts of 40-50 mph are still likely in the late evening with gusts to 35 mph by daybreak.
Tuesday
Scattered rain showers likely in the morning. Showers will become isolated, and may even end during the afternoon. In fact, as mentioned yesterday, we could get into a wedge of drier air for a time and the sun may even poke through later in the afternoon. Probability of precipitation 80% in the morning, decreasing to 50% in the afternoon. Rainfall totals between 0.10 and 0.20 inches, mostly in the morning.
It will be mild, with high temperatures near 60 in Pittsfield and North Adams, low 60s in Great Barrington and high 50s in the elevated terrain and hilltowns.
Southeast winds at 15-25 mph in the morning diminishing to 10-20 mph later in the afternoon. There could be a few gusts in the 30s (mph) early.
Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely, particularly after midnight. Probability of precipitation 70%. Rainfall totals 0.10 to 0.20 inches.
Low temperatures near 50 countywide.
Southeast winds shifting to south after midnight and diminishing to 5-15 mph.
Wednesday
A few showers are still likely but will be more scattered than previously. Probability of precipitation 50%. Rainfall totals generally less than 0.10 inches.
Temperatures will not rise much as the cooler air associated with the trough to our west starts to move in as the surface low begins lifting to the north out of our area. High temperatures will be in the low 50s in Pittsfield and North Adams, mid 50s in South County and near 50 in the elevated terrain and hilltowns.
South-southwesterly winds at 5-15 mph.