Summary: The forecast has not changed much since yesterday. It appears that Sandy will make landfall along the New Jersey coast near dinner time tomorrow. The models continue to generate a very low central pressure of around 950 mb. One note of concern that I have is that the models were only predicting a central pressure of around 960 mb for this afternoon but the latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory indicates a central pressure of 951 mb! To reiterate, coastal regions are the major concern from this storm. In fact, evacuations of the NJ barrier islands and some low lying portions of Manhattan have begun. The storm surge models I have looked at have increased their estimates slightly, with a surge in the 9-12 foot range for portions of the NJ coast and near NYC. It still looks like the greatest surge will be near high tide so that water heights could be more than 12 feet above mean sea level. Fortunately, this is not something we need to worry about in Berkshire County.

Our forecast is similar to my discussion yesterday. The only change I would make is to increase wind speeds slightly given the recent strengthening of the storm. Flooding should not be a major concern with 1.50 to 2.00 inches of rainfall expected. However, there should be considerable wind damage with many limbs and even a few trees coming down. The damage will be limited somewhat because the trees have lost most of their leaves. Power outages are likely.

The worst of the wind should be during the late afternoon and evening on Monday. Winds will begin to diminish after midnight but will remain quite strong until Tuesday morning. Although still somewhat windy on Tuesday, the damaging winds will have ended. Most of the rainfall will occur Monday afternoon and night with only scattered showers after that.

Sunday Night

Overcast and becoming breezy. There is a good chance of a few scattered light rain showers towards daybreak. Probability of precipitation 50%. Any rainfall totals should be less than 0.05 inches.

Temperatures will not drop much and low temperatures will be in the upper 40s.

Northeast winds at 8-12 mph this evening, increasing to 10-20 mph after midnight and 15-25 mph by morning.

Monday

Scattered light rain showers likely in the morning. The rain will become steady and moderate at times during the early afternoon and heavy at times during the late afternoon. Probability of precipitation 60% early increasing to 100% during the afternoon. Rainfall totals between 0.50 and 1.00 inch.

High temperatures will be in the low to mid 50s countywide.

In the lower elevations, including most of the larger towns, northeast winds at 15-25 mph in the morning will increase to 20-30 mph sustained in the early afternoon and 30-40 mph sustained in the late afternoon. Gusts of 50-60 mph are possible in some locations. Wind speed will be highly dependent on elevation and whether location is along an east or west facing ridge. At higher elevations, wind speeds will likely be 35-45 mph with gusts to 70 mph during the late afternoon.

Monday Night

Rain, heavy at times in the evening. Rainfall will become more showery and lighter after midnight. Probability of precipitation 100%. Rainfall totals of 0.25 to 0.50 inches will fall mostly before midnight.

Temperatures will hold steady or even rise a few degrees as somewhat tropical air moves in with the storm.

The high winds discussed for Monday afternoon will hold through the evening hours and then diminish to 25-35 mph by midnight. Winds will shift to the east after midnight and diminish to 15-25 mph by daybreak. Some stronger gusts of 40-50 mph are still likely around midnight with gusts to 35 mph by daybreak.

Tuesday

Scattered showers, although we could get into a wedge of drier air for a time and the sun may even poke through. Probability of precipitation 80%. Rainfall totals of 0.10 to 0.25 inches.

It will be mild, with high temperatures near 60 in Pittsfield and North Adams, low 60s in Great Barrington and high 50s in the elevated terrain and hilltowns.

Southeast winds at 15-25 mph in the morning diminishing to 10-20 mph later in the afternoon. There could be a few gusts in the 30s (mph) early.