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Summary: The deep trough in the jet stream wave pattern which has been camped out over us for days is beginning to flatten out slightly and is lifting northeast. As a result, tonight and tomorrow will not be nearly as cold as recent days. However, another pool of arctic air is beginning to dive southward out of Canada, into the western side of the trough. This will serve to re-amplify the trough so the “warm up” will be short-lived. The leading edge of this pool of cold arctic air will move into the northeast Saturday night and Sunday will, once again, be quite frigid. The arctic cold front at the leading edge of this cold pool of air will generate a band of fairly vigorous snow showers and, possibly, squalls Saturday afternoon and evening as the denser (heavier) cold air lifts the “milder” air over us. The snow should move in mid to late afternoon and linger into the evening. Accumulations should be relatively light, with most locations receiving 1″ to as much as  2″, with 3″ possible over a few “favored” spots in the elevated terrain. Lower elevations in South County may receive less than 1″. It will turn windy and much colder late Saturday night and Sunday. There may be a few lake effect snow flurries/showers on Sunday with a mixture of sun and clouds.

A weak “Alberta Clipper” type surface low pressure system will swing through the Great Lakes and by to our north on Sunday night and Monday. As its weak warm front swings through Sunday night we may see a few snow showers and then again on Monday as it drags its cold front through. However, I don’t expect much in the way of accumulation from this system. We will be briefly in the “warm sector” (between the warm front and cold front) of this low on Monday so temperatures will be milder, although don’t expect anything more than 20s. After this low passes by it will draw cold arctic air back into the trough behind it and our temperatures will be frigid, once again, for a good part of next week. The long range models suggest that the amplified standing wave in the jet stream pattern will begin to flatten out and become more zonally (west to east) oriented late next week. If this occurs, temperatures should begin to moderate by next weekend. Hopefully, this change in the jet stream will enable storms to dip far enough south to provide precipitation to help alleviate the drought along the west coast as well.

Friday Night

Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, but not as cold as recent nights.

Temperatures will only drop a few degrees this evening, with low temperatures in the mid to upper single digits in most locations, near 10 in South County and low to mid single digits over the elevated terrain. Temperatures should rise toward or into the low teens toward morning.

South-southwesterly winds at 10-20 mph.

Saturday

Mostly cloudy and breezy. Not as cold as recent days. A band of snow and snow showers will move through the county beginning mid afternoon and continuing through the evening. Probability of precipitation 90%. Most likely total snow accumulations (through the evening) 1-2″ in most locations, with a dusting to 1″ in the lower elevations of South County and as much as 3″ over a few spots in the elevated terrain.

High temperatures in the low 20s in Pittsfield, Adams, NorthAdams and Williamstown; low to mid 20s in Lee, Stockbridge, Great Barrington and Sheffield and; upper teens to near 20 over the elevated terrain.

South-southwesterly winds at 10-20 mph, diminishing somewhat toward evening.

Saturday Night

Evening snow and snow showers, ending before midnight, then clearing, breezy and much colder after midnight.

Low temperatures in the low single digits, near zero over the elevated terrain. Wind chill temperatures in the teens below zero after midnight.

Southwesterly winds at 10-15 mph in the evening, shifting to west-northwesterly at 10-20 mph, with gusts 25-30 mph after midnight.

Sunday

Mixed clouds and sun, breezy and very cold. There is the chance of a snow flurry or shower. Probability of precipitation 30%. Nothing more than a dusting of snow in a few spots.

High temperatures near 10 in Pittsfield, Adams, NorthAdams and Williamstown; low teens in Lee, Stockbridge, Great Barrington and Sheffield and; mid to upper single digits over the elevated terrain. Wind chill temperatures in the teens below zero early, single digits below zero in the afternoon.

West-northwesterly winds at 10-20 mph with gusts 25-30 mph, shifting to west-southwest and diminishing late.