Summary: Just a quick update on the upcoming snowstorm……It looks like a protracted period of light to moderate snow, on the order of 30 to 36 hours in duration, beginning around midnight tonight and ending sometime Friday morning. However, the snow will likely not be continuous through that period as the snow becomes spotty and light, and even stops for a time, late morning through a good part of the afternoon on Thursday. Snow should be steadiest and heaviest on Thursday night. By the time the snow ends on Friday expect total accumulations in the 8-14″ range. I would expect the least amount of snowfall in the lower elevations of South County as the snow band shifts to the north on Thursday. As usual, highest totals will be over the eastern highlands as strong northeast winds generate additional vertical motion over these regions. I will try to update these totals over the next few days as the storm evolves.

Another element with this weather scenario to keep in mind is that it will be quite COLD. The southern edge of an arctic airmass will edge south during the next few days. Record temperatures in south-central/southeastern Canada, on the order of -40 to -45 degrees have occurred in the center of this airmass. Obviously, it will not get that cold here but temperatures will struggle to stay in the teens on Thursday and then fall back into the low single digits Thursday night and remain there on Friday. As I had mentioned previously, we may see near record lows on Friday night, well below zero, before temperatures begin to moderate over the weekend.

The timeline looks like this: Snow developing around midnight. This snow will be occurring in a relatively narrow (north to south) band along a stationary front extending east from the approaching Midwest surface low, but looks to be centered over Berkshire County. Snow should be light to moderate and fairly continuous after midnight until daybreak, then will begin to shift north during the morning on Thursday. As it shifts, snow will become light and spotty and may completely stop for a time, first over South County, and then over the entire county by late morning. Snow will then pick-up again towards evening as jet stream energy shifts to the coast and the coastal surface low begins to deepen. Accumulations should be on the order of 2-4″ by Thursday morning with an additional 1-3″ falling during the day. The lesser amounts will fall over South County and the greater amounts over North County during this period. Snow should be heaviest overnight Thursday with an additional 5-9″ of accumulation. Snow will wind down fairly quickly on Friday morning as the coastal low moves out to sea.

Wednesday Night

Overcast with snow developing around midnight. Fairly continuous light to moderate snow after midnight. Probability of precipitation 90%. Likely accumulations 2-4″.

Low temperatures near 10 in the lower elevations, single digits over the elevated terrain.

Light northwesterly winds in the evening, shifting to northeasterly at 5-10 mph after midnight.

Thursday

Snow early, decreasing in intensity and becoming more intermittent, and even stopping for a time, mid-morning through most of the afternoon. The snow will diminish in South County first, but snow should be spotty or have ended everywhere by noon. Snow will then pick-up in intensity toward evening. Probability of precipitation 80%. Likely accumulations 1-3″ with the least amounts in South County.

It will be cold, with temperatures holding near 10 degrees, single digits over the elevated terrain.

Becoming breezy, with northeasterly winds at 10-15 mph, with gusts to 25 mph.

Thursday Night

Snowy, breezy and very cold. Probability of precipitation near 100%. Likely additional accumulations of 5-9″.

Low temperatures near zero.

Northeasterly winds at 10-20 mph in the evening, shifting to northerly after midnight. Gusts to 25-30 mph.

Friday

Snow ending early. Remaining mostly cloudy with some clearing late. Breezy and very cold. Total storm snow accumulations 8-14″.

High temperatures in the low single digits in most locations, mid single digits in South County and near zero over the elevated terrain.

Northwesterly winds at 10-20 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph.