Summary: The question that everyone is asking is “Are we going to get a big snowstorm for Thanksgiving?”. The answer is….it is way too early to tell but, probably not. The long-range computer models have been consistently generating a coastal low (Noreaster) for next Tuesday night and Wednesday since this Tuesday’s model runs. Therefore, I would say with fairly high confidence that there will be a storm somewhere along the East Coast next Tuesday and Wednesday. However, the models have been very inconsistent within, as well as between, models as to the track the surface low will take. As most people who have lived in the Northeast for any length of time know, it is the track of the low that determines the amount of precipitation and, in particular, the precipitation type any area will get from one of these “wintertime” coastal storms. My gut feeling right now from looking at the different scenarios the models have been generating, is that if the surface low is far enough off the coast for it to be cold enough for Berkshire County to get snow, we will be to the northwest of the heaviest precipitation, and may not get any precipitation at all. If the storm hugs the coast, which my gut (and experience?) suggests is more likely, the atmosphere will most likely be too warm for snow here but with significant snow possible to our north and west (Albany, Catskills, Adirondacks, Vermont). However, it is Friday, so we are talking about a 4-5 day forecast which is still very fluid. I will update this forecast over the weekend. I suspect (hope?) that by Sunday or Monday the models will begin to converge and I will have a better handle on the type and amount of precipitation, as well as the exact timing of the event.
For this weekend, Saturday looks like the better of the two days. A weak surface low pressure system pushed its warm front through here this morning with a bout of mostly light rain. This afternoon we are in the storm’s “warm sector” between the warm front and the cold front trailing to the south and west of the low. Therefore, temperatures are more mild right now than we will likely see for quite some time. As is typical of autumn, the jet stream has been wavering back and forth over us for many weeks. However, as is also typical when we get into late November, the jet stream has begun to strengthen as the pool of cold air over the Arctic builds and begun shifting to the south of us as this pool of cold air expands. This transition will be highly noticeable by Sunday, which will be a day more typical of January than November. We have already had a few cold spells over the last few weeks. However, this will be different on two counts. First of all, this air mass is truly of Arctic origin and it will be brutally cold on Sunday for this time of year. Secondly, it looks like this time the jet stream may stay to our south for a prolonged period so that, even though the coldest air will only stick around for a few days (Sunday and Monday), with temperatures likely moderating back into the 30s for a time next week, I don’t see a return of above normal temperatures for awhile.
For the more immediate future, the previously mentioned weak surface low passing by to our north will drag its cold front through this evening, generating a few rain showers. The precipitation could end as a few flakes of snow, particularly over the elevated terrain. The frontal passage will usher in cooler and breezy weather for Saturday but there should also be a good amount of sunshine. A second “arctic” cold front will pass through late Saturday afternoon and evening. This will likely generate a few snow showers, but no accumulating snow. This frontal passage will usher in much colder air for Saturday night and Sunday. We will also likely be in the tail end of a lake-effect snow band for a time Saturday night and scattered snow showers and flurries may leave a coating of snow in a few places. It will be quite breezy on Sunday as well, so it will feel much colder than the (already cold) air temperatures in the upper teens to low 20s. Fortunately, wind speeds now look to be a little lower than they looked a few days ago.
Friday Night
Mostly cloudy with scattered light rain showers likely before midnight. There may be some snowflakes mixed in toward the end. Clearing skies after midnight. Probability of precipitation 60%. Rainfall totals generally 0.05″ or less. Becoming breezy and colder from late evening on.
Low temperatures near 30 in most locations, low 30s in South County and, mid to upper 20s over the elevated terrain.
Light southwesterly winds early, shifting to west-northwesterly before midnight and increasing to 10-20 mph, with gusts to 25-30 mph.
Saturday
Partly cloudy and seasonably cold. Still a bit breezy. It will turn mostly cloudy with the chance of a snow shower very late in the afternoon. Probability of precipitation 30% very late.
High temperatures in the upper 30s in Pittsfield, North Adams, Adams and Williamstown; near 40 in Lee and Stockbridge, near 40 to low 40s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; low to mid 30s over the elevated terrain and hilltowns, depending on elevation.
West-northwest winds at 10-15 mph.
Saturday Night
Variably cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries. Probability of precipitation 50%. There may be a coating in a few locations, particularly over the elevated terrain. It will become increasingly breezy and much colder.
Low temperatures in the low to mid teens with wind chill temperatures near 0.
West-northwesterly winds at 10-15 mph, increasing to 15-20 mph after midnight with gusts 30-35 mph.
Sunday
Partly sunny, windy and unseasonably cold.
High temperatures near 20 in Pittsfield, North Adams, Adams and Williamstown; low 20s in Lee, Stockbridge, Great Barrington and Sheffield and; mid to upper teens over the elevated terrain and hilltowns. Wind chill temperatures in the single digits.
West-northwesterly winds at 15-25 mph with occasional gusts to 35-40 mph.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, breezy and very cold, with low temperatures upper single digits to low teens.
Monday
Partly cloudy, breezy and cold, although not as windy or cold as Sunday. High temperatures averaging in the mid to upper 20s.