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Summary: First, I would like to apologize for the lack of forewarning of this morning’s snow. I was unable to update the forecast yesterday as I was with my Introduction to Meteorology class on a field trip during the afternoon and evening at the National Weather Service office in Albany (darn day job!). Most places in the county reported between 1″ and 1.5″.
The forecast is essentially unchanged from the one I made on Sunday. We may receive even heavier rain with 1.5″ to 2.5″ total tonight and Wednesday. The NWS has issued a flood watch for tomorrow. I think flooded roadways will probably be the main issue for Thanksgiving travelers tonight and tomorrow, except in far western and northern NY, where snowfall will be a problem. Wednesday evening and night frozen precipitation will likely make for some hazardous travel here as well as to the north and west. Snowfall totals should be relatively light, but the roads will likely become slippery in places.
The time frame for this storm still looks like this:
Light snow falling this afternoon will pick up in intensity late this afternoon and early this evening but will rapidly change to sleet and freezing rain around 6 or 7 pm. Additional snowfall totals should be an inch or less before the changeover. By 10 pm, the precipitation will have changed to plain rain in most locations as temperatures rise above freezing. There may still be a few pockets of freezing rain over the elevated terrain but it should be rain everywhere by midnight. I do not expect significant icing as where temperatures are not above freezing in the evening, they will be very close to freezing so there will likely be a little slush on the secondary roads but the main roads should remain wet.
The rain will pick up in intensity and will become quite heavy toward morning. Expect between 1.0″ and 1.5″ by daybreak. Temperatures will rise overnight, reaching the 40s by morning. It will also become quite breezy.
It will continue to rain heavily during the morning and then begin to taper off over the course of the afternoon. Another 0.50″ to 1.00″ of total rainfall is likely during the day Wednesday. It will be quite mild during the morning, with temperatures peaking near 50 degrees. Temperatures will begin to fall through the 40s and into the 30s during the afternoon as the surface low center passes directly over Berkshire County and the wind shifts to the northwest.
During Wednesday evening there will be a change back to frozen precipitation, first freezing rain and sleet and then, eventually snow, as the precipitation winds down with the storms departure. This period of precipitation will be relatively brief but the roads will likely become slippery in places as the wet roadways begin to freeze and the snow may come down fairly heavily. Expect and inch or so of snow in places during the evening, particularly over the elevated terrain. A few scattered, mostly light, snow flurries and showers will continue off and on through the evening once this burst of precipitation ends around 8 pm or so. However, after midnight the intensity of the snow may pick up as we get some “backlash” snow. Expect another 1-2″ by morning. This “backlash” sometimes occurs in Berkshire County if a strong storm moves directly over us and we get hit by a moist flow rotating around the storm as it departs. This moist, northwest flow is lifted by the hills and we can get some fairly heavy snow showers and squalls. This storm looks like a pretty good set up for this type of event and the high-resolution models are suggesting it will happen. Scattered snow showers should continue for Thanksgiving morning with some clearing in the afternoon. It will turn windy and much colder on Thanksgiving with high temperatures averaging out in the low 20s across the county.
Tuesday Night
Snow changing to sleet and freezing rain around 6 or 7 pm. Additional snowfall totals less than 1″. Sleet and freezing rain will change to all rain in most places by 9 or 10 pm although there may still be a few pockets of freezing rain over the elevated terrain. Precipitation should be plain rain everywhere by midnight. Rain, becoming heavy at times after midnight. It will become breezy and mild. Most likely rainfall totals 1.00″ to 1.50″. Probability of precipitation near 100%.
Temperatures near freezing during the evening will rise through the 30s and into the 40s by morning.
Southeasterly winds at 10-15 mph shifting to easterly and increasing to 15-25 mph after midnight with gusts over 30 mph.
Wednesday
Rain, heavy at times. Rain will begin to taper off during the afternoon. Probability of precipitation near 100%. Likely rainfall, an additional 0.50″ to 1.00″. The rain will likely change to sleet and freezing rain and then snow late in the afternoon into the evening. An inch or so of snow could fall in some places.
High temperatures near 50 in Pittsfield, Adams, NorthAdams and Williamstown; low 50s in Lee, Stockbridge, Great Barrington and Sheffield and: mid to upper 40s over the elevated terrain. High temperatures will occur in the morning and then fall through the 40s and into the 30s during the afternoon.
Easterly winds at 10-15 mph will shift to northwesterly, late morning to early afternoon, and increase to 15-20 mph with gusts 30-35 mph in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
Any steady snow should end during the evening, by 8 pm or so, with scattered snow showers or flurries continuing off and on for the remainder of the evening. Heavier snow showers or squalls are likely from midnight on. Probability of precipitation 80%. Likely total snowfall accumulations 1-3″. Breezy and colder.
Low temperatures in the upper teens, mid teens over the elevated terrain.
West-northwest winds at 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
Thursday
Snow showers and flurries likely in the morning. Probability of precipitation 60%. Additional snow accumulation a dusting. Clearing skies during the afternoon. Windy and much colder.
Temperatures will not rise much with high temperatures in the low 20s in Pittsfield, Adams, NorthAdams and Williamstown; low to mid 20s in Lee, Stockbridge, Great Barrington and Sheffield and: upper teens to near 20 over the elevated terrain.
West-northwest winds at 15-25 mph with gusts between 30-40 mph.