Summary: There are no major changes to the forecast for tonights snowfall. I think the snow should be a little heavier than it looked yesterday so I have increased the likely snowfall accumulations a bit.

Snow should begin to pick up in intensity toward evening. There is unlikely to be any accumulation over the lower elevations before dark this afternoon, with temperatures generally in the mid 30s and the high-sun angle this time of year. There could be an inch or so of accumulation over the elevated terrain, where temperatures range from near 30 to the low 30s. However, even there the high sun-angle will limit accumulations. After sunset, the snow should begin to accumulate, first on grassy surfaces but as snowfall intensity increases to moderate to heavy at times, with a drop in temperatures into the 20s overnight, road surfaces will likely become snow covered as well. I expect snowfall totals to be in the 4-8″ range across the county during the overnight hours, with the lower end of that range more likely in the lower elevations (all of the large towns) and the higher end of that range over the elevated terrain, particularly in the eastern portions of the county.

Snow should continue through the morning on Friday and end by early afternoon. Temperatures will remain fairly cold but as the sun gets higher in the sky, the snow is likely to melt as fast as it accumulates. An additional 1-2″ could fall in the lower elevations early in the morning with 2-4″ additional accumulation over the elevated terrain before this happens. There will likely be some snow covered roads early in the morning, although the treated main thoroughfares should be wet to slushy. By mid to late morning the roads should just be wet. I expect total snowfall accumulations from this afternoon through Friday morning to be highly variable throughout the county, mainly on the basis of elevation. This is very common in March when the sun-angle is high and surface temperatures are close to freezing. Likely storm total snowfall: 5-8″ for the lower elevations, including all of the main towns. Likely accumulations over the elevated terrain will be in the 8-12″ range. However, I would not be surprised to see some reports over 12″ come in from Savoy and Peru, possibly Otis as well.

The two upper-level disturbances responsible for the snow will continue to spin around each other (“Fujiwara” effect) which will serve to propel the entire upper-level trough/cut-off low eastward as the weekend approaches. This will allow the jet stream wave pattern to resume its eastward progression (has been stalled by the blocking pattern caused by the cut-off high/ridge to the north over eastern Canada and cut-off low/trough to the south over us). This wil permit a mild ridge to propagate eastward with a surface high pressure system at its leading edge cresting over the Northeast over the weekend. As a result, Saturday will likely be a bright, sunny day, with temperatures well into the 40s. Sunday will have a few more clouds but there will still be plenty of sunshine, and slightly milder as well, with temperatures approaching 50.

Thursday Night

Snow, moderate to heavy at times. Probability of precipitation 100%. Likely snowfall totals 4-8″ overnight, with the lower amounts in the lower elevations and the higher amounts more likely over the elevated terrain.

Low temperatures in the upper 20s in the lower elevations, mid 20s over the elevated terrain.

North-northwest winds at 10-15 mph.

Friday

Snow, moderate to heavy at times in the morning, tapering off during the early afternoon. Partial clearing mid to late afternoon. Probability of precipitation 100%. Additional snowfall accumulations 1-2″ in the lower elevations, 2-4″ over the elevated terrain. Likely storm total snowfall accumulations 5-8″ over the lower elevations and 8-12″ over the elevated terrain.

High temperatures in the low to mid 30s in Pittsfield, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, mid 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield, and near 30 over the elevated terrain and hilltowns.

Northerly winds at 10-15 mph.

Friday Night

Becoming mostly clear.

Low temperatures in the low 20s in most locations with some upper teens over the elevated terrain.

North-northwest wind 10-15 mph in the evening, diminishing to 5-10 mph after midnight.

Saturday

Sunny and much milder.

High temperatures in the mid 40s in Pittsfield, mid to upper 40s in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, upper 40s in Great Barrington and Sheffield, and low 40s over the elevated terrain and hilltowns.

North-northwest winds at 5-10 mph.