Berkshire Count Forecast – Saturday, December 22

This forecast is being posted about noontime:

Well, it appears that winter has finally hit Berkshire County. Interestingly, this year astronomical and meteorological winter appear to be aligned, yesterday being the winter solstice. From initial reports it appears that most of the county has received between 1″ and 3″ of snow (although I suspect there were greater amounts in some of the “favored” higher elevations) as lake-effect snow streamers waved over the region this morning. Most of the county is still receiving snow showers although Central Berkshire, including the Pittsfield area, is presently in-between streamers. Lake-effect snow showers will continue off and on for the rest of the day and into this evening but will tend to diminish over time. An additional inch or two could fall in some locations. A particularly heavy band has set up over North County and there an additional 3″ could fall in some of the higher elevations. It will remain quite windy (this cold wind is what is generating the lake-effect in the first place) through this evening and then winds will begin to diminish later tonight and through the day Sunday. Skies will clear somewhat overnight but then it will become mostly cloudy again on Sunday and there is even the chance for additional scattered lake-effect snow showers or flurries although with little if any accumulation. Temperatures will be seasonably cold throughout the weekend.

We will have one relatively tranquil day before the next snow event. It will be mostly sunny Monday morning and then clouds will begin to increase during the afternoon. Snow should begin late Christmas Eve and continue into Christmas morning (White Christmas!). The surface low responsible for this snow now appears a bit more robust and should track just to our south. Most likely accumulations will be 3-6″. Another, stronger storm will move our way for Wednesday evening into Thursday. We could get a foot or more of snow from this storm. The track of the storm in both the U.S. and European long-range models have been along the classic snowstorm path for Berkshire County, off the New Jersey coast and over Cape Cod. However, the GFS model run this morning has the track right over Berkshire which would give us a mixed-bag of frozen precipitation (yuck!). I will watch the trend over the next few days and update the forecast for this potentially large storm in coming days.