Summary: The warm front remains stalled just to our southwest and will remain so for the next 24-36 hours. Therefore, we will continue to “bask” under overcast skies and seasonably cool temperatures. We will not get to share in the sunshine and unseasonably warm temperatures that most of the eastern half of the country is enjoying. As the warm front finally “creeps” through Thursday night we will get only a taste of that subtropical airmass as skies become partly cloudy on Friday afternoon and temperatures climb well into the 60s. Unfortunately, although mild again on Saturday, it will begin to cloud up again as the cold front along the leading edge of the trough in the jet stream, which is presently causing snow over the Rockies, progresses slowly toward our region. However, the big upcoming weather story is likely to be Hurricane Sandy, presently hundreds of miles away, reeking havoc as it makes landfall on the island of Jamaica. It will continue its path of destruction over Cuba and the Bahamas, probably not strengthening much as it moves over multiple land masses. In fact, it is projected to decrease in intensity to a tropical storm as it moves over Cuba. It likely will strengthen to a minimal hurricane as it moves over the Bahamas and back into the Atlantic off the Southeast U.S. coast. It should then weaken again as it moves north over cooler water and begins to encounter more wind shear. It is unlikely to make landfall in the U.S. as a hurricane. However, it now appears to be a strong possibility that we will feel its impact starting late on Monday and possibly lasting for several days. Computer forecast model scenarios are still somewhat divergent, however, the most likely scenario is as follows: As Sandy tracks north to off the southeast U.S. coast it will weaken to a tropical storm. As the massive amount of latent heat being released into the atmosphere by this storm it will serve to build the warm ridge located over the eastern U.S.. This will amplify the entire wave pattern and cause the advancing trough from the western U.S. to dig further south. In fact, the trough will become what we call “negatively tilted” as it digs under the tropical storm. The resulting southeast flow along the eastern edge of this negatively tilted trough should redirect the tropical storm back towards the East Coast. During the day Monday and into Tuesday the tropical storm will begin to merge with the trough and come under the influence of the strong jet stream along its leading edge. The tropical storm should then undergo what is called an “extratropical transition” as it begins to derive its energy from the jet stream instead of the warm ocean waters. This should enable it to remain quite strong as it “backs up” over New England on Tuesday bringing heavy rains and strong winds well inland. It appears that the worst conditions may be on Tuesday. However, the jet stream wave pattern will likely become so amplified that the “negatively tilted” trough in the wave will “break” and become cut-off from the main jet stream. If this occurs, the cut-off low pressure system will become stacked vertically at all levels of the atmosphere. This will cause the surface storm to weaken but also stall over the northeastern U.S. giving us some rain and showers for several days, possibly even the majority of the week. However, much of this is conjecture, or, to be kind, an educated guess since all of this is almost a week away. So, as the TV guys always say, stay tuned for more updates………

Wednesday Night

Mostly cloudy, calm and mild for this time of year. There is a chance of nothing more than a few scattered sprinkles.

Temperatures will not drop much given the cloud cover and should bottom out in the mid 40s.

Calm winds.

Thursday

Mostly cloudy although the sun will start to peek through from time to time during the afternoon, particularly late.

It will be slightly milder than Wednesday with high temperatures near 60 in Pittsfield and North Adams, low 60s in Great Barrington and mid to upper 50s over elevated terrain and the hilltowns, depending on elevation.

Southeast winds in the morning shifting to south in the afternoon at 5-10 mph.

Thursday Night

Remaining mostly cloudy.

Temperatures again will not drop much with the cloud cover. In addition, dewpoints will begin to rise as the milder, moister air starts to move in with the passage of the warm front. Low temperatures should be near 50 in most areas.

Light southerly winds.

Friday

It will start out mostly cloudy in the morning but skies should begin to clear late morning, becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon.

It will be milder, with high temperatures well into the 60s. Highs should reach the mid to upper 60s in most areas but only low 60s in the elevated terrain. If we get enough sunshine it could hit 70 in some parts of South County.

Light south-southwest winds.