Until the students in my Introduction to Meteorology class start making forecasts with me as part of their lab work later in the semester, all of the forecast posts will be made by me, Joe Kravitz (M.S. Atmospheric Science, University at Albany). In case you are interested, I teach two atmospheric science courses at BCC, Introduction to Meteorology (SCI-145, to be redesignated ATM-145 starting next fall) which is usually offered each fall semester and Extreme Weather (SCI-126….becoming ATM-126) which blends the study of severe weather (e.g. tornadoes, hurricanes, floods and droughts) with an examination of global warming and its likely impacts on the frequency and severity of these events. This course is usually offered each spring semester. Neither course has pre-requisites.

Summary: The low pressure system which brought rain to the county today will move off the coast this evening and any lingering showers will diminish and eventually end by evening. However, the stationary front located just to our south will persist over the weekend until it is lifted out by an upper-level low pressure system rotating through the region Sunday night and Monday. Therefore, it will remain mostly cloudy and relatively cool through the weekend. Low clouds associated with persistent low-level moisture in the atmosphere will dominate the day on Saturday. However, although there may be some spotty drizzle or drips accompanying the low overcast, no measurable rainfall is expected. Breaks in the overcast are more likely on Sunday and, therefore, it may be a few degrees warmer. However, there is a greater chance for showers, particularly in the afternoon, as the upper-low starts to rotate through. The trend will then be toward sunnier and warmer through mid-week as weak high pressure tries to build into the region. The operative word, however, is “weak” and a disturbance may lift through from the south on Tuesday with some showers. I hate to use one of meteorologist’s favorite words, “unsettled”, but that will be the case until a strong cold front can come through, clear out all the moisture and ripples in the jet stream and allow a nice, strong autumn high-pressure system to build in. The long-range computer model runs suggest this may happen on Friday but it is way to early to know for sure.

Friday Night

Any scattered light showers in the evening should end by midnight. Remaining overcast. Probability of precipitation 30% early, diminishing after midnight. Any precipitation that falls with evening showers should remain less than 0.05 inches.

Temperatures holding steady, near 50 degrees.

Light easterly winds shifting to northwest after midnight.

Saturday

Overcast and cool. There may be a little spotty drizzle or even a few drips of light rain scattered about the county but  any measurable precipitation is not likely.

High temperatures will be in the upper 50s in most of the county with some mid 50s in the elevated terrain. Highs may reach 60 in parts of south county.

Northwesterly winds at 5-10 mph.

Saturday Night

Remaining mostly cloudy.

Low temperatures near 50 countywide.

Winds becoming calm.

Sunday

Mostly cloudy but breaks in the clouds will likely increase through the day and it may even become partly sunny at times in the afternoon. However, there is the chance of scattered showers developing during the afternoon. Probability of precipitation 40%.

It should be a few degrees warmer than Saturday with high temperatures in the low 60s in Pittsfield and North Adams, near 60 over elevated terrain and in the hilltowns and mid 60s in Great Barrington and the lower elevations of South County.

Northwest winds in the morning will shift to west-southwest in the afternoon at 5-10 mph.