The student forecasts as part of labwork for the Introduction to Meteorology course will not begin for another month or so when they have learned enough for it to be a useful teaching tool. However, as a service to the BCC and broader Berkshire County community I have decided to begin posting my own Berkshire County forecasts and commentary daily, when time permits. I have always been frustrated by the lack of detail and, sometimes, accuracy of public forecasts for our county and hope to put my own experience and local weather/microclimate knowledge to use to improve upon that.

Summary: A slow moving cold front will move through this evening with a round of scattered showers and then stall just to our south. It will temporarily dry out and clear up tomorrow afternoon as a surface high pressure system tries to build in behind the front. However, it will cloud up for Friday and Saturday with a threat of showers both days as a few week disturbances ripple along the front just to our south. It will gradually turn cooler over the next 24 hours after passage of the front tonight and high temperatures will be below normal, only in the 50s both Friday and Saturday. A look ahead suggests that it will remain unsettled on Sunday and that the weather won’t improve considerably until the whole mess lifts out on Monday night or Tuesday. However, we may be in for a fairly extended stretch of nice weather after that.

Wednesday Night

There will be a few widely scattered, mostly light, rain showers this evening. Probability of precipitation 30% (This means that there is a 3 in 10 chance of ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION receiving measurable precipitation [i.e. 30% chance it will rain at your house]). Rainfall totals will be less than 0.05 inches.  It will remain cloudy through most of the overnight with a decreasing chance of showers. There will be some breaks in the overcast toward morning.

Cloud cover and relatively high dewpoints for this time of year will prevent temperatures from dropping much overnight and it will remain relatively mild with low temperatures in the mid to upper 50s countywide.

Winds will be light and will shift from southwesterly to northwesterly as the cold front passes through the region after midnight.

Thursday

Decreasing cloudiness over the course of the day. It will start out mostly cloudy (> 75% cloud cover) in the morning but become mostly sunny (< 25% cloud cover) during the afternoon.

The air will feel drier and cooler than Wednesday as dewpoints drop steadily into the 40s behind the cold front. Despite the cooler air behind the front, high temperatures will climb into the mid 60s in Pittsfield and North Adams under the influence of abundant afternoon sunshine, with upper 60s in Great Barrington and Sheffield. Temperatures will be in the slightly cooler low 60s in the hilltowns.

Winds will be out of the northwest at 5-10 mph.

Thursday Night

It will be clear early, with increasing cloudiness after midnight, becoming mostly cloudy by morning. There is a chance of rain toward morning. Probability of precipitation 30%. Any rainfall should total less than 0.10 inches.

Low temperatures in the mid to upper 40s.

Light winds shifting from northwest to east-northeasterly.

Friday

Overcast, cool and damp, under the influence of a light east-northeasterly breeze. There is a good chance of a period of rain as we will be on the northwest fringe of the precipitation shield of a small storm moving by to our southeast. There is considerable uncertainty as to the exact track of this small, compact surface low pressure system at this time.  I would put the probability of precipitation at 50% countywide, greater in southeast portions of the county and lesser probability to the northwest.  Precipitation amounts should be light, generally under 0.10 inches, but could be as much as 0.25 inches if the storm tracks closer.

High temperatures should only reach the mid 50s, and may not get out of the low 50s in the hilltowns.

East-northeasterly winds at 5-10 mph.