Posted at 3:15 pm

Summary:

Berkshire County will see a return to more typical winter weather for the foreseeable future. Temperatures will hover within several degrees of average, with some slight ups and downs over the next week or so. West-northwesterly breezes will bring mostly cloudy skies with a few, scattered lake-effect snow flurries for the next few days. On Monday we will likely see a bit more sun but it will be colder. An Alberta Clipper type low will slide by to our north and likely give us a little light snow Tuesday and/or Tuesday night, but will probably only drop a few inches at most. The next chance for a significant storm doesn’t look to be until late next weekend into early the following week.

Analysis:

A deep and broad trough in the polar front/jet stream wave pattern is covering most of the U.S. this afternoon. A deep and broad area of surface low pressure in the Canadian Maritime, along the northeastern margin of this trough is creating a steep pressure gradient that is generating strong west-northwesterly breezes across the Northeast. This wind is generating bands of lake-effect snow showers downwind of Lake Erie and Ontario. A few, but not many of these showers are making it into Berkshire County as a few flurries. The trough will propagate very slowly eastward and the surface low will track very slowly northeastward so our weather will not change much over the weekend. Expect mostly cloudy skies with a few scattered flurries with seasonable temperatures. We may see a little bit more sun on Sunday, but don’t count on it.

The trough will eventually amplify and narrow, becoming centered over the Northeast on Monday. This will make for a bit colder day on Monday but with more sunshine as surface high pressure briefly noses in from the south. A disturbance/short-wave will develop along the back edge of the trough and generate a weak, Alberta Clipper type low over south-central Canada on Monday. This low will track southeastward across the Great Lakes on Monday night and then slide by just to our north on Tuesday and Tuesday night. This low will likely generate a dusting to a few inches of snow in Berkshire County but I will update accumulation predictions in my next post on Monday afternoon.

Forecast:

Friday Night

Mostly cloudy and breezy. There is the chance of a snow flurry. Probability of precipitation 30%. Little or no accumulation. Low temperatures in the mid 20s. Westerly winds at 10 – 20 mph, 15 – 25 mph over the elevated terrain.

Saturday

A mix of sun and clouds early, with the most sun in South County, then becoming mostly cloudy. Remaining breezy and seasonably cold. Slight chance of a snow flurry. High temperatures in the low 30s in the lower elevations of central and northern Berkshire (e.g., Pittsfield, Adams, North Adams, Williamstown), mid 30s in South County (e.g., Great Barrington, Sheffield, Stockbridge), upper 20s to near 30 over the elevated terrain (e.g. Savory, Peru, Windsor, Becket, Otis). Westerly winds at 10 – 20 mph, diminishing late.

Saturday Night

Becoming partly cloudy with less of a breeze. There is still the slight chance of a flurry. Low temperatures in the low 20s, near 20 over the elevated terrain. Southwesterly winds at 5 – 10 mph.

Sunday

A mix of sun and clouds but likely more clouds than sun. Still the chance of a flurry. High temperatures in the low 30s, mid 30s over the lower elevations of South County and near 30 over the elevated terrain. Southwesterly winds at 5 – 10 mph, becoming westerly.

Sunday Night and Monday

Partly cloudy and colder. Low Sunday night in the mid teens, low teens over the elevated terrain. High Monday in the mid 20s over the lower elevations of central and northern Berkshire, upper 20s in South County and low 20s over the elevated terrain. Light northwesterly winds overnight, becoming 5 – 15 mph by Monday afternoon.