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Summary: It appears that our weather pattern may become quite interesting over the next week as a trough in the jet stream wave pattern slowly edges east and essentially stalls over the eastern half of the country. Colder air within this trough will then slowly become established over us as a series of disturbances in the jets stream flow pattern then dive into and rotate through the base of the trough. These disturbances will generate a series of surface low pressure systems along the east coast and also serve to reinforce the trough. However, before anyone gets too excited about this resulting in a series of snowstorms for Berkshire County, I think the situation is more complicated than that. In order for that to happen, the trough would need to be in a particular location and orientation relative to us and the disturbances would need to be strong and well timed. Right now the computer models are not particularly in sync with each other. I suspect this will change as the situation evolves. This is how things look right now….

The leading edge of the trough will move through as a cold front tomorrow. The mild, moist air presently over the region will be lifted by the advancing “colder” air and as a result we will have a fairly rainy day on Tuesday. However, the rain will be much lighter and more intermittent than this past weekend. We will then have a pause in the action until Thursday. The disturbance that looked like it might give us some snow on Wednesday in my last forecast now looks like it won’t rotate through until Thursday. Also, the coastal low pressure system that it generates looks like it will be fairly weak and too far to the east and that we will only get light snow, if any, although an inch or two still looks like a possibility. Another disturbance will rotate through the base of the trough Friday night into Saturday and generate another storm along the coast. This one looks a little more promising for a snow storm as the low develops closer to the coast and becomes a bit stronger. The European model (ECMWF) is generating a pretty big snowfall for us. The U.S. long range model (GFS) has it mostly missing us to the east. Everyone has been talking lately about how great the European model is. However, I think this model has been noticeably worse than the GFS model this winter. I will update this evolving situation tomorrow…..

In any case, it appears that we may be headed back into winter after our recent thaw with this pattern possibly persisting well into next week.

Monday Night

Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely developing by morning. Probability of precipitation 60%. Rainfall totals generally 0.10″ or less.

Temperatures will not drop much with southerly winds and a cloud cover. Low temperatures generally in the mid to upper 30s, near 40 in South County, mid 30s over the elevated terrain.

Southerly winds at 8-12 mph.

Tuesday

Overcast with intermittent rain and showers. Probability of precipitation 90%. Likely rainfall totals 0.20″ to 0.30″.

Temperatures not rising much, with high temperatures near 40 in Pittsfield, Adams, NorthAdams and Williamstown, Lee and Stockbridge; low 40s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; upper 30s over the elevated terrain.

Light south-southwest winds shifting to westerly late.

Tuesday Night

Variably cloudy and remaining relatively mild for mid January.

Low temperatures generally in the upper 20s to near 30.

Light west-northwesterly winds shifting to southerly by morning.

Wednesday

Partly cloudy and still fairly mild.

High temperatures in the low to mid 40s in Pittsfield, Adams, NorthAdams and Williamstown, Lee and Stockbridge; mid 40s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and: near 40 to low 40s over the elevated terrain.

South-southeasterly winds at 5-10 mph.