The following forecast is provided by Cindy Bird and Connor Lein as part of lab work for the Introduction to Meteorology course (ATM-145) under faculty (Joe Kravitz) supervision. The forecast discussion is mine (JK) ……
Out weather will be relatively tranquil, with seasonable temperatures, for the next two days, as surface high pressure builds in from the Midwest tonight and Thursday and then crests over the region Thursday night. As the high approaches, cold west-northwesterly winds blowing across the Great Lakes will generate a few lake-effect snow bands tonight and tomorrow. However, it looks like nothing more than a few flurries for Berkshire County as these bands rotate through. The high will move to our east on Friday as a weak surface low pressure system and its associated warm front move through Friday night and Saturday. Precipitation from that event should be fairly similar to what we saw last night and today, with relatively light snow changing to sleet and freezing rain Friday night, transitioning to plain rain by Saturday morning. Saturday looks like a rainy day as the low lolligags along through.
The long-range models suggest surface high pressure will build in briefly for Sunday, so part of the weekend should be salvaged. However, both the U.S. (GFS) and European (ECMWF) models develop a coastal low pressure system in response to an amplifying trough in the jet stream wave pattern for early next week. The timing and appearance of this scenario looks complicated, so I will update this on Friday. However, it looks like there is the possibility for at least some snow for Berkshire County for the Monday through Tuesday period.
Wednesday Night
Variable cloudiness, breezy and seasonably cold. There is the chance of a few scattered snow flurries. Probability of precipitation 30%. There should be nothing more than a light dusting in a few isolated spots over the higher terrain.
Low temperatures in the mid 20s, low 20s over the elevated terrain.
West-northwesterly winds at 10-15 mph.
Thursday
Mostly sunny and breezy early. Becoming mostly cloudy by mid-morning. Colder. There is the slight chance of a snow flurry during the early to mid-afternoon. Probability of precipitation 20%. No snow accumulation expected. Winds should lighten during the afternoon and skies will likely clear late.
High temperatures near 30 in Pittsfield, Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams, and Williamstown; low 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; mid to upper 20s over the elevated terrain.
West-northwesterly winds at 10-15 mph in the morning, decreasing to 5-10 mph during the afternoon.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, calm and cold.
Low temperatures in the mid teens.
Clam winds.
Friday
Increasing cloudiness with the slight chance of a light snow shower or flurry late.
High temperatures in the low 30s Pittsfield, Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; low to mid 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; near 30 over the elevated terrain.
East-southeasterly winds at 5-10 mph.