Temperatures have come up a few degrees since this afternoon. It is now 33 degrees in Great Barrington and Sheffield, between 30 and 31 in Pittsfield, 32 in the North Adams/Williamstown region, and between 26 and 30 over elevated terrain. There is still no significant precipitation on radar but model run from this evening still indicating some rainfall developing over Berkshire later tonight.

Disclaimer: Please note that the office officially responsible for all weather watches and warnings in Berkshire County, the National Weather Service office in Albany, NY,  has issued a winter weather advisory for our county for freezing rain til 9 am Monday morning. This official information should be heeded by all public officials and can be found at the following website: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/aly/

The following forecast update is provided by Joe Kravitz, meteorology instructor at BCC:

A weak warm front has stalled over the region and has become stationary (i.e. stationary front). A very light mixture of precipitation is falling this afternoon across the county as warmer air aloft overrides cold air near the surface. Enough warmer air will eventually infiltrate levels above the surface so that the precipitation will transition to all liquid (rain) across the county by nightfall. However, rain falling at any place that remains at or below 32 degrees will have “freezing rain”, rain which freezes on contact with surfaces at or near the surface. It is still at or below freezing at the surface at virtually all reporting stations in the county.  At 3:30 pm, the temperature was between 30 and 31 in the North Adams/Williamstown region, between 28 and 30 in the Pittsfield area and 32 in Great Barrington and Sheffield. Temperatures in the elevated terrain and hilltowns are well below freezing, in the mid to upper 20s. For example, Peru is reporting 24 degrees. Even the elevated terrain in South County, such as in Otis and Shaw Pond, near Lee, are between 27 and 28 degrees.

I do not expect temperatures to change much overnight, although it is possible that temperatures could rise a degree or two overnight in some locations as some of the milder air aloft mixes down to the surface as precipitation falls steadier and heavier at times overnight. However, I believe only the lower elevations in South County (e.g. Great Barrington and Sheffield) will go above freezing. However, it will be close to 32 degrees in lower elevations of central and northern Berkshire as well. However, temperatures should remain well below freezing in the elevated terrain and hilltowns.

Although there is presently very little on radar, the high-resolution computer models generate an area of somewhat steadier and heavier precipitation moving through the county between midnight and daybreak, as a weak coastal low develops along the stalled front and then moves rapidly east. Most likely rainfall totals will be between 0.20″ and 0.35″.

Taking all this into consideration, it does not appear that the lower elevations will have many problems. There should not be enough ice to generate power outages and only the smaller, untreated roads are likely to be slippery, although anyone travelling should still exhibit caution. The elevated terrain and hilltowns are much more likely to have some problems, particularly if temperatures remain in the mid 20s in some of the higher elevations such as Peru. There some tree branches may fall and any untreated roads will be slippery. Even isolated power outages could occur if rainfall amounts reach 0.25″ or higher.

The steady precipitation should end by early morning and temperatures in the entire county should rise above freezing as the morning progresses on Monday.

As noted previously, rain (NOT freezing) should begin to fall steadily and heavier with the next, stronger surface low moving east along the stalled front Monday evening. Warmer air being pulled north in advance of this low (counterclockwise flow) will eventually drive temperatures well into the 40s by Tuesday. We should get a fairly healthy dose of rainfall, between 1.00″ and 2.00″. It still looks likely that we could get a few inches of “backlash” snow as the low moves by to our east late Tuesday and Tuesday evening.

The following forecast is provided by Joe Kravitz, the  instructor for the Introduction to Meteorology course, there is no student forecast today:

The forecast scenario has not changed much from yesterday. It still looks as if light snow/snow showers will develop during the morning on Sunday. It now looks like the snow will change to sleet (ice pellets) a little sooner, early to mid afternoon, and snow accumulations should be less than an inch in most locations before the changeover. In addition, temperatures should be near freezing so the roads should remain mostly wet. There will eventually be a changeover from sleet to freezing rain as the afternoon progresses. The warm front will essentially stall over our region, becoming a stationary front. Precipitation will likely become a little heavier during the evening, enhanced by the development of a weak coastal low pressure system along the front. This low will move quickly east and the precipitation will become lighter after midnight and virtually end by morning, except for some drizzle and sprinkles.

The big forecasting dilemma is how much freezing rain will fall in different parts of Berkshire County Sunday afternoon and night. Temperatures should remain steady overnight on Sunday, or even rise a degree or two. Temperatures will not fall overnight as the overcast serves as a “blanket”, preventing radiational cooling. Also, some of the warmer air aloft (warm front stalled over the area) may mix down to lower levels. Therefore, wherever it is above freezing late Sunday afternoon, there should not be any significant icing. Most of the lower elevations in central and south Berkshire, including Pittsfield, Great Barrington and Sheffield should fall into that category. Towns to the north (Adams, North Adams and Williamstown) may be a few degrees colder, though still close to freezing. Only minor icing, mostly on tree branches is likely to occur in those locations. The greatest concern for icing is in the hilltowns, particularly in central and northern Berkshire, where temperatures may hold a few degrees below freezing overnight. However, even in locations where freezing rain falls all night, only 0.25″ or so will fall. This amount could still bring down some tree branches but roads should be just slushy with temperatures still near freezing. This entire scenario will become MUCH clearer tomorrow as the situation develops.

Temperatures should rise above freezing everywhere on Monday setting the stage for a rainstorm Monday night and Tuesday, as the next, stronger surface low pressure system develops along the stationary front. It still appears that this low will track to our northwest, to over western NY Monday night and then redevelop right along the coast on Tuesday. This will bring more than enough warm air into the region for just rain to fall. In fact, temperatures may shoot into the 40s during the day on Tuesday. Rainfall totals will be substantial with this storm, on the order of 1.00″ to 2.00″. As the storm departs and cold air is pulled in behind the low, we may receive a “backlash” of a brief period of snow before the storm exits and precipitation ends Tuesday evening. Whether we get any “backlash” depends on whether the low and its associated precipitation is moving fast enough east to pull out before a changeover occurs. Any snowfall looks like it should be no more than an inch or two at this point.

Wednesday will be colder with some scattered lake effect snow showers and flurries. We then warm up again in advance of the next surface low and its associated cold front move through on Thursday night. Once again, it looks like this precipitation event will be rain. It should then turn colder by drier over the weekend.

The following forecast is provided by Caitlin Wehry, in conjunction with the  instructor, Joe Kravitz, as part of lab work for the Introduction to Meteorology course:

Summary:  Surface high pressure will continue to dominate our weather for one more day, Saturday, and then we are in for a prolonged bout of inclement weather as a series of complex storm systems impact our area from Sunday through Wednesday.

At present, the jet stream remains weak and zonally oriented (east to west). The jet stream lies right over the Northeast U.S. and mild subtropical and cold polar air masses (surface high pressure systems) are battling for control of our weather. The subtropical air won out today and we had above normal temperatures, into the 40s countywide. A weak cold front will move through with nothing more than some cloudiness tonight as the jet stream shifts a bit to the south. Colder surface high pressure (continental polar air mass) behind the front will then nose into the region for Saturday and into Sunday. This will give us a fair and seasonably cold day on Saturday, but it will be 5-10 degrees colder than today. This cold low-level air then sets the stage for an array of precipitation types as the surface low pressure system presently giving the southern Rockies some snow is pushed rapidly eastward by the zonal jet stream, reaching the eastern Great Lakes by Sunday. However, the low will weaken considerably as it moves east and precipitation amounts will be fairly light.

The counterclockwise flow around this low pressure system will bring milder air northward, as a warm front, to the east of the low. As milder air rides up and over the colder air at the surface, clouds and precipitation will develop over our region on Sunday. Initially, the air will be below freezing at all levels of the atmosphere and snow will fall. Surface temperatures will be near freezing in most parts of Berkshire County so the snow will be relatively wet and will not accumulate much. Since it will be a little colder over the elevated terrain and hilltowns there will likely be more accumulation in those locations. Late in the afternoon, as temperatures go above freezing aloft, precipitation will transition rapidly to sleet and freezing rain and, eventually, rain. It is not yet clear whether surface temperatures will go above freezing sometime Sunday night or not until Monday during the day. Right now, it appears that temperatures will be at, or just above freezing during the night Sunday. If it stays just below freezing we could have a little icing, mostly on tree branches, overnight Sunday. However, at this point, since temperatures will be close to freezing, and precipitation amounts will be relatively light, any icing, if it occurs, should not be heavy enough to cause any real problems in most parts of the county (certainly no power outages and the roads should stay relatively clear). The greatest danger for icing is over the elevated terrain, particularly to the north. This situation should become clearer over the next day or so.

A weak coastal low pressure system will develop along this warm front to our south and east on Sunday night which will enhance the precipitation somewhat before it moves east and takes the precipitation with it during Sunday night. At that point we will be to the south of the jet stream (on the warmer side of the jet) for the following few days. Therefore, it now looks like the stronger low pressure system that the long range computer models have been generating will form and track to our north and west. This will leave us more “wet” than “white” as this storm moves through. In fact, it may get quite mild here on Tuesday. In addition, the jet stream will likely not be as amplified as it looked a few days ago. Therefore, the storm should not be as strong and will move through sooner and faster, giving us rain Monday afternoon through Tuesday night before it departs on Wednesday, leaving us with somewhat colder air but only a few snow showers/flurries. So, right now, it is not looking too good for a white Christmas but there is still hope as it looks like we likely will get much colder here by next weekend. At least, hopefully, we will get finals in on time next week.

Friday Night

Mostly clear this evening. There will be a mostly cloudy period as the cold front moves through late this evening into the early morning hours. Skies should clear by daybreak.

Low temperatures in the mid 20s in most locations. There may be some low 20s in the elevated terrain and in North County.

West-northwesterly winds at 5-10 mph this evening, shifting to north-northwesterly after midnight. Winds becoming light by daybreak.

Saturday

Mostly sunny for most of the day. The sun will be dimmed at times as high clouds increase later in the afternoon.

High temperatures in the mid 30s in Pittsfield, mid to upper 30s in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, upper 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield, and low 30s in the elevated terrain and hilltowns.

Light northerly winds.

Saturday Night

Becoming overcast. There is the slight chance of a snow shower near daybreak. Probability of precipitation 20%.

Low temperatures in the mid 20s will occur early and then temperatures should rise into the upper 20s as the cloud cover moves in. It should fall to the low 20s over the elevated terrain and then rise to the mid 20s overnight.

Light northerly winds early will shift to light easterly late in the evening.

Sunday

Overcast with occasional light snow or snow showers developing during the morning and continuing into the afternoon. Precipitation should change rapidly to light sleet and then light freezing rain late in the afternoon. It may change to rain in South County by the end of the day. Probability of precipitation 80%. Snowfall accumulations will be an inch or less in the lower elevations. There could be as much as two inches over the elevated terrain and possibly three inches in a few isolated spots over the elevated terrain to the south and east.

High temperatures will be near freezing in most locations with low 30s in Pittsfield, Adams, North Adams, and Williamstown, low to mid 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield, and near 30 over the elevated terrain and hilltowns.

Light easterly winds in the morning will shift to southeasterly and increase to 5-10 mph during the afternoon.

The following forecast is provided by Tyler Virgilio, in conjunction with the  instructor, as part of lab work for the Introduction to Meteorology course:

Summary: A surface high pressure system will crest over the region, giving us fair, dry weather with light winds for the next few days. Temperatures will be seasonable for this time of year although it will be slightly milder on Friday as high pressure shifts to our east and a west-southwesterly breeze brings milder air into the region.

The long range models continue to suggest that our weather will get more interesting over the weekend and, particularly, next week. A weak surface low pressure system moving along a weak, zonal jet stream may give us a few inches of wet snow on Sunday. Then, the jet stream wave pattern becomes more amplified and it appears a strong coastal low will likely impact us sometime Tuesday night through Thursday next week. Both the GFS and ECMWF models show a deep, slowly moving suface low pressure system in a similar location, off the New Jersey coast, during that time period. Despite the fact that this is still nearly a week away, the forecast has a greater than normal confidence level since the models have been consistent over several runs now. It is too early to make any predictions as to precipitation type. The track of the low off the coast, to our south and east, would suggest a big snowstorm. However, at this point, it does not appear that the storm will have a lot of cold air available so that if the storm hugs the coast we may get a mixture of frozen precipitation. This long range outlook will be updated Friday……

Wednesday Night

Mostly clear, calm and seasonably cold.

Low temperatures in the low 20s in most locations.

Winds will be calm.

Thursday

Mostly sunny.

High temperatures in the upper 30s in Pittsfield, near 40 in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, low 40s in Great Barrington and Sheffield, and mid 30s in the elevated terrain and hilltowns.

Winds light and variable.

Thursday Night

Mostly clear, calm and seasonably cold.

Low temperatures again in the low 20s.

Calm winds.

Friday

Mostly sunny and milder.

High temperatures will be above average for this time of year. High temperatures in the low to mid 40s in Pittsfield, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, mid 40s in Great Barrington and             Sheffield, and near 40 to low 40s over the elevated terrain and hilltowns.

Light west-southwesterly winds in the morning increasing to 8 to 12 mph in the afternoon.

The following forecast is provided by Christine Tower, in conjunction with the  instructor, as part of lab work for the Introduction to Meteorology course:

The following forecast is provided by Jamie Swirsky, in conjunction with the  instructor, as part of lab work for the Introduction to Meteorology course:

Summary: The zonally oriented jet stream continues to move relatively weak weather systems rapidly through our area. An upper-level disturbance will generate rain showers over our region as it moves by this afternoon and tonight, into early Saturday morning. It will remain cloudy but relatively dry as a weak surface low pressure system associated with the polar front jet stream drags its weak cool front over the region Saturday afternoon and evening. Skies will begin to clear later Saturday night as drier air associated with a weak surface high pressure system moves in. This surface high pressure will build back in briefly to give us one decent day before a stronger storm with heavier rainfall moves in for the early workweek. We remain located along the southern margin of the polar front jet stream so we will continue to have above normal temperatures and the longer-range computer model runs do not give any indication of any arctic outbreaks or snowstorms over the Northeast for the foreseeable future.

Friday night

It will be overcast with occasional rain showers overnight. The precipitation will be lighter and more scattered this evening and become more widespread after midnight. Probability of precipitation 70% this evening, increasing to 90% after midnight. Rainfall totals of 0.10″ to 0.25″ likely.

Temperatures will hold steady in the low to mid 30s countywide.

Light southerly winds before midnight, shifting to light east-northeasterly after midnight.

Saturday

There is the chance of few scattered, light showers lingering into the morning, then remaining overcast in the afternoon. Probability of precipitation: 50% in the morning; 20% in the afternoon.

High temperatures in the low 40’s in Pittsfield, low to mid 40s in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, mid 40s in Great Barrington and Sheffield, and near 40 over the elevated terrain and hilltowns.

Light east-northeasterly winds in the morning, shifting to southerly and increasing to 5-10 mph in the afternoon.

Saturday night

It will be overcast with a slight chance of a few scattered light rain showers in the evening, then clearing skies overnight. Probability of precipitation: 20% in the evening.

Low temperatures generally in the low 30s with some upper 20s over the elevated terrain.

Light southerly winds before midnight, shifting to northwesterly and increase to 8-12mph after midnight as the cool front moves through.

Sunday

It will be mostly sunny in the morning although the sun will be filtered at times by high clouds. Increasing clouds during the afternoon.

High temperatures in the low to mid 40’s in Pittsfield, mid 40s in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, mid to upper 40s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and low 40s over the elevated terrain and hilltowns.

Light northwesterly winds in the morning will become easterly at 5-10mph during the afternoon.

The following forecast is provided by Noah Parsons, in conjunction with the  instructor, as part of lab work for the Introduction to Meteorology course:

Summary: Surface high pressure will build in from the northwest as the cold front responsible for the period of rain last night pushes off to the east. With surface high pressure cresting over the area on Thursday, the large-scale descent and stability associated with this system will give us a mostly sunny and seasonably cold day. However, since the jet stream remains zonally oriented (flat, west to east), this fair weather will not last long as weather systems continue to move rapidly from west to east. Therefore, clouds will increase Thursday night and Friday and showers are a good bet by day’s end on Friday as the next disturbance along the jet stream moves in.

Wednesday Night

Mostly cloudy with a chance of a few scattered snow flurries this evening, then clearing skies late this evening. Mostly clear after midnight.

Overnight temperatures will be colder than they were with the previous weather system, falling to near 20 in most locations, with mid to upper teens likely over the elevated terrain and hilltowns.

Winds will blow from the west-northwest at 10-20mph this evening (with the hill towns experiencing the strongest winds), but will diminish as the night passes to 5-10 mph by daybreak Thursday morning.

Thursday

Mostly sunny and seasonably cold.

High temperatures in the upper 30s in Pittsfield, near 40 in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, low 40s in Great Barrington and Sheffield, and low to mid 30s in the elevated terrain and hilltowns, depending on elevation.

Northwest winds at 5-10 mph in the morning will become light and variable in the afternoon.

Thursday Night

Clear in the evening, then increasing clouds after midnight.

Temperatures will fall to the low to mid 20s.

Light (less than 5 mph) southerly winds.

Friday

Mostly cloudy early, then becoming overcast late morning. Scattered, light rain showers are likely during the afternoon. Probability of precipitation 60%. Rainfall totals will likely be only 0.10 inches or less.

High temperatures in the upper 30s in Pittsfield, near 40 in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, low 40s in Great Barrington and Sheffield, mid 30s in the elevated terrain and hilltowns.

Winds from the south-southwest at 5-10 mph.

The following forecast is provided by Rebecca McLaren, in conjunction with the  instructor, as part of lab work for the Introduction to Meteorology course:

Summary: It will be unseasonably mild through Tuesday night as the jet stream has once again shifted well to our north. In fact, it will be even warmer on Tuesday than today as a weak warm front moves through the region with lots of clouds and a few scattered light showers or sprinkles late tonight into Tuesday morning. The jet stream pattern will become more amplified on Tuesday and the leading edge of a trough in the jet stream will move through as a cold front, bringing us a period of rain Tuesday night. It will be breezy and cooler behind the front on Wednesday. However, temperatures will only drop to near seasonal levels. Considerable sunshine and seasonable temperatures will return on Thursday and Friday as surface high pressure builds back into the region.

Monday Night

Partly cloudy this evening, becoming mostly cloudy after midnight. There is the chance of a light shower or a sprinkle toward daybreak. Probability of precipitation 30%. Rainfall totals should be less than 0.05”.

It will be unseasonably mild. With considerable cloud cover, and dew points in the upper 30s in most locations, temperatures should only fall into the upper 30s to near 40 by morning.

Light northwest winds shifting to light southerly after midnight as the warm front passes.

Tuesday

Mostly cloudy with a chance of scattered light showers or sprinkles in the morning. Probability of precipitation 30%. Any rainfall should total less than 0.05″. There should be some peeks of sun as it becomes partly sunny for a time during the afternoon.

It will unseasonably mild with high temperatures in mid 50s in Pittsfield, mid to upper 50s in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, upper 50s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and low 50s in the elevated terrain and hilltowns.

Light southerly winds in the morning increasing to 8-15 mph in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night

Increasing clouds during the evening followed by a period of rain and rain showers beginning near midnight and ending by daybreak. Probability of precipitation 80%. Likely rainfall totals between 0.15″ and 0.25″.

Temperatures holding in the low to mid 50s until midnight and then falling to the mid 40s toward daybreak in Pittsfield, after passage of the cold front. Temperatures should fall to the upper 30s to low 40s over the elevated terrain and hilltowns but only the upper 40s in South County.

Southerly winds at 8-12 mph shifting to northwest after midnight, following frontal passage.

Wednesday

Partly cloudy in the morning, then becoming mostly cloudy during the afternoon. It will be breezy and much cooler than Tuesday.

Temperatures holding steady in the mid 40s during the morning in Pittsfield, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, upper 40s in Great Barrington and Sheffield, and upper 30s to low 40s in the elevated terrain and hilltowns. However, temperatures should begin falling during the afternoon, reaching the mid 30s by nightfall in Pittsfield, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, upper 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield, and upper 20s to low 30s in the elevated terrain and hilltowns.

Northwest winds at 10-20 mph.