This forecast update provided by Joe Kravitz:

From what I am seeing on radar this morning I think I would up the snowfall totals to 1-3″ for Berkshire County with highest amounts to the south and lowest amounts to the north.

The following forecast is provided by Colleen Jones, in conjunction with the  instructor, as part of lab work for the Introduction to Meteorology course:

Summary: There is likely to be a relatively brief period of light snow Tuesday morning as a weak low pressure system moves off the coast to our south, grazing Berkshire County with the northern edge of its precipitation shield. There will be a fairly sharp boundary to the northern edge of the snowfall, possibly right through the middle of the county, as with the snow event earlier this month. Where this boundary sets up is uncertain. However, any accumulating snow is more likely to occur in the southern portions of the county. Where snow does accumulate it will likely not exceed one inch. However, there may be a few isolated spots that receive as much as two inches. Our weather will then begin to clear, as early as later tomorrow afternoon. However, clouds will increase again on Wednesday as lake effect clouds and even a few flurries develop with cold WNW winds late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Surface high pressure should then, finally, build over our region for the latter part of the week and bring some sunshine, although it will remain fairly cold. As the high pressure system moves off the coast over the weekend we may have a bit of a warmup as winds shift around to the south on the western side of the high.

Monday Night:

Partly cloudy during the evening, then increasing and thickening clouds after midnight. Light snow will likely develop near 6 or 7 am. Probability of precipitation 60% but only 40% in North County. Accumulations will only be a dusting at most.

With cloud cover developing, low temperatures will only fall to the mid to upper 20’s.

Light westerly winds becoming southerly after midnight.

 

Tuesday:

Light snow is likely in the morning but should begin to taper off to a few scattered snow showers by early afternoon. Some breaks in the cloud cover will develop later in the afternoon. Probability of precipitation 70% in central and southern Berkshire but only 50% in north county. Accumulations will likely be an inch or less in most locations but could reach 2″ in a few locations over higher terrain to the south and east.

Temperatures will struggle to reach the freezing mark in much of the county. High temperatures in the low 30s in Pittsfield, low to mid 30s in Adams, North Adams, Williamstown, Great Barrington and Sheffield. Highs in the upper 20s to near 30 over the elevated terrain and hilltowns.

Light southerly winds shifting to north-northwesterly late.

 

Tuesday Night:

Partly to mostly cloudy and seasonably cold.

Low temperatures in the mid 20’s in most locations with some low 20s over the elevated terrain

Light north-northwesterly winds.

 

Wednesday: 

Partly cloudy in the morning becoming mostly cloudy by afternoon. There is the chance of scattered flurries late. Probability of precipitation 20%. No accumulation is expected.

Temperatures will remain below average with high temperatures in the mid 30s in Pittsfield, mid to upper 30s in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, upper 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and near 30 to low 30s over the elevated terrain and hilltowns.

Northwest winds at 5-10 mph will shift to westerly in the afternoon.

The following forecast update is provided by Joe Kravitz:

The projected jet stream pattern for Tuesday becomes flatter with each model run. It now appears that the storm will move rapidly out to sea well to our south. We are likely to receive little if any snowfall from this storm. The increased speed of movement of the surface low will put us in the path of any snowfall with this weak storm earlier than previously expected with the chance of light snow/snow showers Tuesday morning into the afternoon. Any accumulations should be an inch or less.

The following forecast update is provided by Joe Kravitz:

The forecast for this weekend does not appear changed from yesterday. However, I would like to give an update on the potential storm for Tuesday and Wednesday. The scenario does not appear significantly changed from yesterday. The jet stream wave pattern does not appear amplified enough (too flat/zonally oriented) to generate a strong coastal storm. This will limit the upper-level divergence and thus will limit the upward motion/”lifting” required for heavy precipitation and/or strong surface low pressure generation. This orientation of the jet stream will also carry the storm quickly off the coast and out to our south and east. This will prevent the storm from hugging the coast and enabling us to fall within the zone of heavier precipitation. However, this orientation will also keep us in the colder air so that any precipitation that falls will be in the form of snow.

The models are beginning to converge, with the surface low over the southeast U.S. on Tuesday morning, moving to the southeast of Cape Cod and into the Canadian Maritime by Wednesday afternoon. The central pressure in the surface low should only be around 1004 mb as it moves by Cape Cod. That is quite high for a wintertime coastal storm. As with the coastal storm earlier this month, we will likely be on the northwestern fringe of the snow shield. Therefore, it is difficult to know whether we will fall outside the snow shield or within it. With the last storm, the edge of the precipitation shield cut right through the middle of Berkshire County from northeast to southwest. Right now it looks as if at least part of the county will get a relatively light snowfall with about 2-4″ most likely. Any snowfall will likely begin Tuesday afternoon or evening and end sometime after midnight early Wednesday morning. I will give another update tomorrow…………..

The following forecast is provided by Joe Kravitz, the  instructor for the Introduction to Meteorology course, since there are no classes at BCC today due to Thanksgiving break:

Summary: We are in for a shock this weekend as a strong cold front will move through the region this evening and finally end our long period of fair weather and above average temperatures, giving us our first real taste of winter.

The jet stream wave pattern has become more amplified and a cold trough (southern dip in the jet stream) is presently plunging southeastward through the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. The leading edge of this trough is manifested at the surface as a strong cold front.

Just a note, the jet stream is just the manifestation at the tropopause (upper boundary of the troposphere, the lowest layer of the atmosphere where all the up and down motion in the atmosphere, and thus, weather occurs) of the “polar front”, the semi-permanent boundary in middle latitudes (30-60 degrees) where the strongest temperature contrast between cold air to the north and warm air to the south exists.

Even though there is significant lifting associated with the front due to the pronounced temperature difference across the front, the front has limited moisture to work with (surface dew points in the low 30s) so there will only be scattered light rain showers these evening until about 2 am. Any showers will initially be in liquid form but there may be a change to snow showers/flurries around midnight, following frontal passage. However, any snow that falls will not accumulate.

Once the cold front passes, we will remain in the colder air to the north of the jet stream for quite some time, probably through at least next week. Therefore, temperatures will generally be below average. In addition, our surface winds will shift to the west/northwest and become quite strong over the course of the weekend. This will result in quite low wind chill temperatures. Also, at this time of year, the Great Lakes are still quite warm so that as the cold air behind the front blows over the warmer water, the atmosphere will destabilize and clouds and lake-effect snow showers will develop. Most of this snow will fall over western and central New York state. However, we will be at risk of a few scattered lake-effect snow showers/flurries in the Berkshires as well. It is sometimes not well known that even though most of the moisture which evaporates from the lakes in these scenarios falls as precipitation before it reaches us, any moisture that remains can condense into clouds and, sometimes, precipitation as the air is lifted by the Taconic and Hoosac ranges as it ascends out of the Hudson Valley to our west. We are, in effect, the “last stop on the lake-effect train”.

A very weak disturbance in the jet stream will ride southeast out of Alberta, manifested as a weak surface low pressure system (“Alberta Clipper”) over the weekend and reach us Sunday night. The surface low will weaken considerably and dissipate over the Northeast on Sunday night. The “lifting” in the atmosphere associated with this process may give us a some scattered snow showers late Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening but there should be little, if any, accumulation.

A more significant storm may move through our region Tuesday into Wednesday. The two main long-range models, the U.S. based GFS model and the European based ECMWF model are quite divergent in their outcomes for this storm. Both models have us remaining in the cold air so any precipitation we get is likely to be snow. In addition, the trend has been toward a colder storm. The ECMWF model presently has the storm moving out to sea well to our south and east on Tuesday. However, this model has been very inconsistent with the track and, even though this model has had a better track record, given the inconsistencies between runs, I have a low confidence in this model at this point. The GFS has been much more consistent and I find its outcome more realistic. However, the track of the storm even with this model has been trending south and east with the track to our northwest a few days ago (mixed precipitation for us) and now to our southeast, moving off the New Jersey coast and over Cape Cod (all snow). The trend has also been to a weaker storm with both models. So, at this point, I think the most likely scenario is a light to moderate snowfall from Tuesday into Wednesday. I will update this tomorrow….but for now, get ready for much more winter-like weather this weekend. I suspect it will be a shock to the system for most people given our recent mild and tranquil weather.

Friday Night

Increasing clouds with the good chance of scattered rain showers this evening. Any rain showers will likely mix with and change to snow showers by midnight, particularly over the elevated terrain. However, there will be little or no accumulation (dusting over the higher terrain, at best). Most shower activity will end by 2 am. There will be partial clearing in some areas toward daybreak. Probability of precipitation is 50%. Melted liquid precipitation totals will be less than 0.05 inches in most locations.

Temperatures will fall steadily overnight, reaching near 30 in most locations by daybreak. Low temperatures will only be in the low 30s in some parts of South County and the upper 20s over the elevated terrain.

Southerly winds at 8-12 mph this evening will shift to west-northwest and increase to 10-15 mph around midnight, as the cold front moves through.

Saturday

It will average out partly sunny (50-75% cloud cover) in the morning, but become mostly cloudy during the afternoon. It will be windy and much colder. There is the chance of scattered snow showers/flurries. The best chance for snow shower activity appears to be during the early morning and late afternoon, but a snow shower could occur at any time. Probability of precipitation will average 40% but will be higher in the elevated terrain. There will be little or no accumulation in most locations, although there could be a dusting in some heavier snow showers, particularly over the elevated terrain.

Temperatures will rise little over the course of the day as cold air rushes in from the northwest. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s in Pittsfield, mid 30s in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, mid to upper 30s in South County, and upper 20s to low 30s over the elevated terrain and hilltowns, depending on elevation. Wind chill temperatures will be as low as the upper teens when the wind gusts, but will average in the low to mid 20s.

West-northwesterly winds at 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph, particularly in the elevated terrain.

Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy with a chance of a snow shower/flurry, mainly before midnight. Probability of precipitation 40%. Little or no accumulation. Becoming partly cloudy after midnight. Windy and cold.

Low temperatures in the low 20s in most locations with upper teens over the elevated terrain. Wind chill temperatures in the single digits.

West-northwesterly winds at 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

Sunday

Partly sunny in the morning. Cloud cover will be mostly, relatively thin mid and upper level clouds. However, clouds will lower and thicken late morning through the afternoon. There is a chance of a snow shower late afternoon. Probability of precipitation 30%.

It will remain windy and cold. High temperatures in the low 30s in Pittsfield, low to mid 30s in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, mid 30s in South County and upper 20s to low 30s over elevated terrain and the hilltowns, depending on elevation. Wind chill temperatures will again be between the upper teens and mid 20s.

North-northwesterly winds at 15-25 mph will begin to diminish and shift to the southwest late.

The following forecast is provided by Tammara Leminen, in conjunction with the  instructor, as part of lab work for the Introduction to Meteorology course:

Summary: The surface high pressure system that has been sitting on top of us for almost a week will continue to dominate the forecast into the coming week. The jet stream is way up in Canada, about where you’d expect it to be if this was August and not November.  That means the fair weather is going to continue.  However, the temperatures overnight will continue to be seasonably cold with conditions ideal for radiational cooling (clear and calm at the center of the high pressure system) and daytime highs will only be slightly above normal as the sun is so low on the horizon and the winds so weak that we will be unable to break the temperature inversion that develops during the overnights.

Monday night  

Tonight will be calm, cold and mostly clear, with only some thin high clouds.

Temperatures will drop to the low 20s (near the dewpoint) so expect to scrape more ice off your car again tomorrow.

Calm winds.

Tuesday

There will be increasing clouds due to a weak warm front moving through as we transition from the high pressure system presently over our region to a somewhat warmer high pressure system to our south and west. However, the clouds will be relatively thin and high to mid-level so the sun should be able to shine through them most of the day.

Expect another pleasant, seasonably cool day in the Berkshires. High temperatures will be near where they have been almost every day for the past week, slightly above normal, with highs in the mid to upper 40s for Pittsfield, upper 40s for Adams, North Adams and Williamstown and near 50 in South County. With the temperature inversion it will not be much cooler over the elevated terrain with high temperatures in the mid 40s.

Winds will be light and variable.

Tuesday night

There will continue to be considerable thin, mid and high cloud cover. However, there is no threat of precipitation.

The cloud cover will keep it just a tad warmer than the last few nights – with low temperatures in the mid 20s.

Calm winds.

Wednesday 

Most of the East coast will be under a broad ridge of high pressure going into Wednesday as the two surface high pressure systems merge and strengthen as the weak warm front and its associated mid and high clouds dissipate and it becomes mostly sunny.

High temperatures will be unchanged with highs in the mid to upper 40s in Pittsfield, upper 40s in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, near 50 in South County and mid 40s over the elevated terrain and hilltowns.

Winds will be E-NE  at 5-10 MPH.

Looks like it will be a really nice day for people who are traveling on Wednesday to spend Thanksgiving with relatives.

The following forecast is provided by Cherie Dewey and Karen Herbert, in conjunction with the  instructor, as part of lab work for the Introduction to Meteorology course:

Summary: We are still under the influence of a large, sprawling surface high pressure system which is covering the entire eastern two thirds of the United States. However, we have had a significant cover of predominantly high clouds the past two days from a weak upper-level disturbance drifting by well to our south. We have remained dry, but this high cloud cover and the light winds due to the weak pressure gradient associated with the surface high pressure system has prevented us from breaking the radiation inversion which has developed each of the past two nights. As such, our daytime temperatures have remained quite cool, barely reaching the 40 degree mark in much of the county. As the disturbance finally drifts out to sea tonight our skies will clear and remain clear for the entire weekend as high pressure rebuilds and becomes centered right over New England. It will continue to be seasonably cold overnight with ideal radiational cooling conditions. We may be a few degrees warmer during the daytime over the weekend with the sun no longer being filtered by high clouds. However, it will still remain relatively cool as we will still be unable to break the radiation inversion with very light winds under the dome of high pressure and a very low sun angle at this time of year.

Friday Night

Clear and seasonably cold with light winds.

Low temperatures generally in the low 20s countywide.

Light (less than 5 mph) north-northwesterly winds.

Saturday

Mostly sunny.

It will remain cool, although it may be a few degrees milder than Friday. High temperatures in the low to mid 40s in Pittsfield, mid 40s in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, mid to upper 40s in South County and low 40s in the elevated terrain and hilltowns.

Light northwesterly winds.

Saturday Night

Clear, calm and seasonably cold.

Low temperatures in the low to mid 20s.

Calm winds.

Sunday

Some patchy early morning fog is possible. Otherwise, mostly sunny. There may be some additional high clouds late in the afternoon.

High temperatures in the mid 40s in Pittsfield, mid to upper 40s in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, upper 40s in South County and low 40s over elevated terrain and the hilltowns.

Winds light and variable.

The following forecast is provided by Joe Kravitz, the  instructor for the Introduction to Meteorology course:

Summary: A large, sprawling and strong surface high pressure system has built into the region and will remain with us for the forseeable future. As such, we will have generally fair weather with seasonable temperatures at least into the weekend.

Wednesday Night

Clear, calm and seasonably cold.

Low temperatures generally in the low 20s although there will be a few readings in the upper teens in the usually colder valley spots, particularly over the elevated terrain.

Light north-northeasterly winds early in the evening, becoming calm.

Thursday

There will be some high clouds filtering, but not blocking, the sun from time to time.

Temperatures will be seasonable with high temperatures in the low to mid 40s in Pittsfield, mid 40s in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, mid to upper 40s in South County and upper 30s to low 40s in the elevated terrain and hilltowns, depending on elevation.

Light (less than 5 mph) northerly winds.

Thursday Night

Some high clouds from time to time but generally clear, calm and seasonably cold.

Low temperatures again in the low 20s in most locations.

Calm winds.

Friday

There will be some high clouds in the morning but it will, generally, be mostly sunny.

It will be slightly milder, with high temperatures in the upper 40s in Pittsfield, upper 40s to near 50 in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, low 50s in South County and upper 30s to near 40 over elevated terrain and the hilltowns, depending on elevation.

Light northwesterly winds in the morning increasing to 5-10 mph in the afternoon.

The following forecast is provided by Joe Kravitz, the  instructor for the Introduction to Meteorology course, since there are no classes at BCC today due to Veteran’s Day:

Summary: A cold front will move through late tonight into the morning hours with a band of rain and showers that will end our spell of unseasonably mild weather. As colder air moves in behind the front, the precipitation may end as a brief burst of snow, snow “pellets” (graupel), or sleet during the mid to late morning, particularly over the higher terrain. However, accumulations will be limited as the ground is warm from our recent warm weather, surface air temperatures will be above freezing and any frozen precipitation will only fall for a brief period, although it may come down fairly hard for a time. Behind the front, a very large area of surface high pressure will build into the region. This will result in a prolonged period of fair and seasonably cool weather, with those stable weather conditions prevailing for the remainder of the week and possibly into next weekend.

Monday Night

Increasing clouds with rain and showers developing around 3 am. Probability of precipitation near 100%. Rainfall totals near 0.25 inches in most locations.

Temperatures remaining very mild, holding in the 50s, for most of the night, but dropping precipitously through the 40s after 4 am as the cold front moves through. Temperatures will be in the upper 30s in most locations by morning.

South-southwesterly winds at 10-15 mph, backing to west-northwesterly around 4 am with passage of the cold front.

Tuesday

Rain and rain showers early, possibly ending as a brief period of snow, snow pellets (graupel) or sleet in the mid to late morning, particularly over the higher terrain. All precipitation should end by noon or 1 pm at the latest. Probability of precipitation near 100%. Total melted liquid equivalent will generally be between 0.15 and 0.25 inches. Any snow/sleet accumulations will be mostly on grassy surfaces and mostly over elevated terrain and should measure one inch or less. Skies will begin to clear about an hour or two after precipitation ends and it will become mostly sunny by mid-afternoon.

Temperatures will continue to fall into the mid 30s in lower elevations and low 30s over elevated terrain through the morning hours. As precipitation ends and the sun comes out during the afternoon, temperatures will rise several degrees. High temperatures will be near 40 in Pittsfield, near 40 to the low 40s in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, low 40s in South County and mid to upper 30s in the elevated terrain and hilltowns, depending on elevation.

Northwesterly winds at 10-15 mph in the morning, diminishing during the afternoon and becoming light by evening.

Tuesday Night

Clear and seasonably cold.

Low temperatures in the low 20s in most locations.

Light (less than 5 mph) northwesterly winds.

Wednesday

Mostly sunny and seasonably cool.

High temperatures in the low 40s in Pittsfield, low to mid 40s in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, mid 40s in South County and upper 30s to near 40 over elevated terrain and the hilltowns, depending on elevation.

Light north-northwesterly winds.

The following forecast is provided by Patrick Connors, in conjunction with the  instructor, as part of lab work for the Introduction to Meteorology course:

Summary: Surface high pressure is building into the region today with sunny skies and seasonable temperatures as large scale descent in the atmosphere limits any cloud formation. The high pressure system will crest over us on Saturday resulting in another nice autumn day. As high pressure begins to drift to our east late Saturday and Saturday night, a warm front will push through the region as warm air from the south is lifted over cooler air over our region by the return flow (south-southwesterly winds) around the back side (western side) of the high (clockwise flow around high pressure). The rising warm air will generate cloud cover Saturday night. However, the air is very dry and it is unlikely that there will be enough condensation associated with the front to generate precipitation although there is the slight chance of a light shower or sprinkle as the front moves through Saturday night. Once the front passes, the door will be open for warm air to our south to flood into the region on Sunday and Monday. Skies will clear on Sunday and temperatures will soar to much above average highs (Average is mid 40s) into the 60s. Temperatures will likely reach into the 60s with sunny skies on Monday as well. As the high pressure system drifts further east, a cold front will move through with a round of showers on Tuesday and return our temperatures to seasonable levels. Following that frontal passage, a strong autumnal high pressure system will build into the region to give us fair weather with seasonable temperatures through the remainder of the week and possibly into next weekend.

Friday Night

Clear in the evening with some increase in cloudiness after midnight, becoming partly cloudy by morning.

Low temperatures generally in the low 30s but near 30 in the elevated terrain. There may be some lows in the mid 30s in South County.

Northwesterly winds at 5-10 mph in the evening, becoming light after midnight.

Saturday

Partly cloudy (25-50% cloud cover….more sun than clouds) for the majority of the day. Clouds will begin to increase later in the afternoon and it will become mostly cloudy near sunset.

High temperatures near 50 in Pittsfield, near 50 to the low 50s in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, low 50s in South County and mid to upper 40s in the elevated terrain and hilltowns, depending on elevation.

Light northwesterly winds in the morning, becoming light and variable in the afternoon.

Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy. There is the slight chance of a few scattered sprinkles or light showers. Probability of precipitation 20%. Any precipitation will likely not be measurable but will certainly be less than 0.05 inches.

With cloud cover and mild, higher dewpoint air moving in on southerly breezes, it will be unseasonably mild. Low temperatures near 40 in most locations with some low 40s in South County.

Light southerly winds.

Sunday

Mostly cloudy early in the morning, clearing quickly and becoming mostly sunny by mid to late morning. Unseasonably mild.

High temperatures near 60 in Pittsfield, near 60 to low 60s in Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, low 60s in South County and mid to upper 50s over elevated terrain and the hilltowns.

South-southwesterly wind at 5-10 mph.