This will be my last forecast for awhile. I will be on vacation for spring break and will not post again until Monday, March 25 or Tuesday, March 26. 

Summary: The jet stream wave pattern over the U.S. has become quite amplified, with a strong ridge over the west and a very deep trough over the east. As a result, temperatures are unseasonably warm in the southwest (80s and 90s in southern CA and AZ) and unseasonably cold in the east (high temps in the 40s as far south as GA). Temperatures over Berkshire County at 5000 ft. altitude are near zero (Fahrenheit) so that even with some sunshine today and a high sun-angle, we are struggling to make it into the 20s across the county and it is only in the mid to upper teens across the higher elevations. The cold, arctic air moving across the lakes today is generating some lake-effect snow and one of these lake-effect squalls made it into Berkshire county early this morning, giving central and south-central portions of the county a quick coating-1″ of snow.

This deep trough will lift a bit northward, but broaden, over the next few days, so that, even though it won’t be as cold as today, Berkshire County will still see below normal temperatures for the next several days. As the trough broadens, a few weak upper-level disturbances moving along the jet stream  will keep us fairly cloudy through Saturday and there is even a pretty good chance of snow showers late Friday.

As the trough shifts a little further east, skies may finally clear as surface high pressure (as usual, located under the western side of the trough) finally builds in for Sunday and Monday. A relatively weak storm will move through the Great Lakes and drag first its warm front and then its cold front through here during the day on Tuesday. There may be some mixed precipitation at the outset but right now this event looks to be mostly rain. The Weather Channel has been making a big deal about this “storm” over the last several days (since this past weekend) and I have received many questions about “the big storm we are going to get next week”. The Weather Channel must really be desperate now that we are in a lull after some relatively significant winter storms over the past several weeks. However, they should know better than to get people worked up over “something” that is over one week away. Even with the great advances in mathematical modeling that have been made in recent years, a forecast for more than one week out has very limited “skill”.

Thursday Night

Partly to mostly cloudy this evening with more clouds over the elevated terrain. There is still the slight chance of a lake-effect snow shower or flurry before midnight. Probability of precipitation 20%. No accumulation expected. Becoming partly cloudy after midnight. It will remain breezy and unseasonably cold.

Low temperatures in the low to mid teens in most locations, near 10 over the elevated terrain. Wind chill temperatures will be near zero.

Northwesterly winds at 10-15 mph, diminishing somewhat toward morning.

Friday

Mostly cloudy and continued cold, although not nearly as cold as Thursday. There is a good chance of a snow shower or two mid to late afternoon. Probability of precipitation 50%. There may be a dusting in a few places.

High temperatures in the low to mid 30s in Pittsfield, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, mid 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield, and upper 20s over the elevated terrain and hilltowns.

West-southwesterly winds at 5-10 mph in the morning, becoming southwesterly and increasing to 10-15 mph during the afternoon.

Friday Night

A chance of a lingering snow shower early, then partly to mostly cloudy, becoming overcast toward morning.

Low temperatures in the low 20s in most locations, upper teens over the elevated terrain.

West-northwest winds at 5-10 mph.

Saturday

Mostly cloudy and continued cold. Some light snow associated with an upper-level disturbance should remain well to our south.

High temperatures in the low to mid 30s in Pittsfield, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown, mid 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield, and upper 20s over the elevated terrain and hilltowns.

Light west-northwest winds.