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Summary: Another cold trough in the jet stream wave pattern is shifting over New England and will be centered over us on Thursday. Therefore, it will be cold for the next several days, with tomorrow several degrees colder than today as another, weaker, arctic front passes through tonight. As surface high pressure builds in to our south and west, tracking along the western side of the trough (the usual location) it will generate a fairly strong west-northwest flow across the region through Friday. As the cold, arctic air blows across the Great Lakes the atmosphere will destabilize and bands of lake-effect snow showers will be generated. As a result, we will have variable amounts of clouds with intervals of snow flurries and snow showers as these bands shift back and forth across Berkshire County for the next few days.

The jet steam wave pattern will, briefly, flatten out (become zonally [west-east] oriented) Friday into Saturday as a new trough begins to dive south into the Great Plains. This trough will generate a new surface low pressure system across the southern Mississippi Valley Friday night into Saturday morning. As the warm front extending northeast from the low advances, a broad area of light snow will develop across the Midwest and into the Northeast in advance of the low center. Therefore, light snow should develop here during the day on Saturday. As the low moves off the Carolina coast, over the Gulf Stream and up along the Mid-Atlantic coast Saturday night it will intensify a bit so snow will likely pick-up in intensity here overnight. The snow should taper off Sunday morning as the storm departs off the coast southeast of Cape Cod.

A few days ago it appeared that the trough generating the surface low would become quite deep and the amplified pattern in the jet stream would generate a very deep low off the coast with warmer air being drawn over us giving us a lot of snow, sleet and freezing rain. Now the computer models are beginning to converge on a solution that has the jet stream considerably flatter, with a weaker surface low. Therefore, it looks like the cold air should stay over us and that the precipitation will remain all snow. However, precipitation totals should also be less. Right now it looks like a light to moderate snow event with snowfall accumulations in the 2-4″ or 3-6″ range. I will update this forecast over the next few days as the storm approaches……

Wednesday Night

Mostly cloudy, breezy and cold, with a chance of a snow shower or flurry, predominantly before midnight. Skies should begin to clear after midnight. Probability of precipitation 50%. There may be a dusting of snow in a few spots.

Low temperatures generally in the low teens, mid teens in South County and near 10 over the elevated terrain.

West-northwesterly winds at 10-15 mph, with gusts to 25 mph, shifting to northwesterly and diminishing to 5-10 mph after midnight.

Thursday

Partly cloudy, breezy and cold through early afternoon. Clouds will increase during the afternoon. There is the chance of a snow shower or flurry late in the day. Probability of precipitation 30% late.

High temperatures in the upper teens to near 20 in Pittsfield, Adams, NorthAdams and Williamstown; near 20 in Lee and Stockbridge; near 20 to low 20s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and: mid teens over the elevated terrain.

Northwest winds at 10-15 mph in the morning, with gusts to 25 mph, shifting to westerly at 5-10 mph during the afternoon.

Thursday Night

Mostly cloudy, breezy and cold with a good chance of a snow shower before midnight. Probability of precipitation 50%. There may be a dusting in a few spots.

Low temperatures near 10 in most locations with low teens in South County and mid to upper single digits over the elevated terrain. Wind chill temperatures -5 to -10.

Westerly winds at 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

Friday

Mixed clouds and sun, breezy and cold. There will be more clouds to the north than in South County. There is the chance of a snow shower or flurry. Probability of precipitation 50% with greater chances to the north than the south. Once again, there may be a dusting of snow in a few spots.

High temperatures near 20 in Pittsfield, Adams, NorthAdams and Williamstown, Lee and Stockbridge; low 20s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and: mid to upper teens over the elevated terrain.

Westerly winds at 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.