Note: Clicking on underlined red text provides links to various weather maps.

Summary: The forecast scenario is not significantly changed from my Sunday discussion. The weather will remain relatively quiet with only some light precipitation and seasonable to above normal temperatures through Thursday. Friday and beyond the forecast becomes more complex and of lower confidence as the jet stream/polar front settles slowly over the region. This will serve as a conduit for numerous jet stream disturbances to move directly over our region as the polar front waves back and forth over us. As a result, we will have numerous bouts of precipitation from Friday through Tuesday. Whether the precipitation will fall as rain, snow or mixed precipitation is highly uncertain and depends on the exact location of the front at any time and the track of the surface low pressure systems generated by the jet stream disturbances. Right now it looks like a period of rain late Thursday night into Friday morning followed by a possible period of snow, perhaps with an inch or two accumulation, Friday night. A more complex, and stronger, storm system will move through Sunday night into Tuesday with a mixture of precipitation types likely. The precipitation will likely begin as snow Sunday night into Monday with a transition to sleet and freezing rain or drizzle on Monday and possibly to just plain rain as the surface low likely tracks just to our west. The precipitation will likely change back to snow before ending sometime Monday night into Tuesday as the storm departs and it becomes drier but much colder mid-week next week as an arctic air mass settles over us.

Until all that mess occurs, it should be dry and relatively mild through Wednesday as weak surface high pressure located between a surface low pressure system departing off the coast to our east, and one moving through the Great Lakes, settles over us. The low moving through the Great Lakes will drag its warm front through the region Wednesday night into Thursday morning with a few light showers and sprinkles. This will open the door to unseasonably mild air for Thursday as we are briefly in the “warm sector” (between the warm front and cold front) of the Great Lakes cyclone. The departing storm will then drag its strong cold front slowly south over us Thursday night into Friday night. This will result in a period of rain late Thursday night into Friday morning. As the cold front drifts south a disturbance riding up the coast along it may clip us with a little snow Friday night.

Tuesday Night

Variable amounts of cloudiness and seasonably cold.

Low temperatures generally in the mid 20s, low 20s over the elevated terrain.

Light northwesterly winds.

Wednesday

A mix of sun and clouds.

High temperatures in the low 40s in Pittsfield, Adams, NorthAdams and Williamstown; low to mid 40s in Lee, Stockbridge, Great Barrington and Sheffield and: upper 30s to near 40 over the elevated terrain.

Winds light and variable.

Wednesday Night

Increasing clouds in the evening, becoming overcast after midnight. A few scattered light showers and sprinkles are possible after midnight. Probability of precipitation 50%. Rainfall totals should be 0.05″ or less.

Low temperatures in the low 30s during the evening, rising slowly after midnight to near 40 by morning.

Calm winds in the evening, becoming southeast at 5-10 mph after midnight.

Thursday

Overcast but mild. Showers are likely although much of the day may be rain free except for sprinkles and spotty drizzle from time to time. Most of the showers will be light and are most likely early in the morning and later in the afternoon. Probability of precipitation 70%. Most likely rainfall totals 0.10″ or less.

High temperatures near 50 in Pittsfield, Adams, NorthAdams and Williamstown, Lee and Stockbridge; low 50s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and: mid to upper 40s over the elevated terrain.

Southeasterly winds at 5-10 mph in the morning, shifting to southerly and then southwesterly during the afternoon.