Summary: The warm front, which served as a focus for this mornings showers, has stalled over the Mass Pike, with sunny skies and 70 degree temperatures in South County and a low overcast and near 60 degrees in the rest of the county. This front, now a stationary front, will waver slightly north and south over the county through Saturday. From this afternoon’s conditions it is clear that the exact location of the front at any time tomorrow, which is very difficult to predict, will have a large impact on the weather conditions across the county. However, it appears that most of the county will remain overcast for most of the day Saturday with occasional drizzle and a few sprinkles and temperatures holding in the low to mid 60s. In parts of South County the sun may break through the clouds at times during the afternoon which would result, once again, in temperatures approaching or exceeding 70 degrees.

In any case, the front will finally make its move through the county and to the north late Saturday night and during the day on Sunday. This movement, along with a developing disturbance along the front, will likely generate more shower activity (and even some rumbles of thunder) across the county late Saturday night and during the day on Sunday. This will keep temperatures in the 60s across the entire county.

It now appears that the trough in the jet stream wave pattern developing over the Midwest will slow down its forward progress and become a bit “cut-off” from the rest of the jet stream. This will delay the passage of the cold front at the trough’s leading edge (trailing south from a surface low-pressure center being generated by the trough over the Great Lakes) until this “cut-off” gets picked-up by the jet stream again on Tuesday. As a result, we will break into the “warm sector” of the surface cyclone, between the warm and cold fronts, on Monday, giving us a partly cloudy, very warm and humid (almost tropical) day.  This delay will also likely allow the remnants of Tropical Storm Karen to be picked-up and funneled north by the cold front. Karen’s tropical moisture would then enhance the frontal rain band as it passes through our region, giving us fairly pronounced rainfall totals Tuesday into Wednesday.

Friday Night

Mostly cloudy and mild for this time of year. There is the chance of a few scattered showers, and even some rumbles of thunder, this evening. Probability of precipitation 30%. Rainfall totals will be highly variable, but there could be as much as 0.10 to 0.25″ in any showers that fall. Patchy fog and drizzle may develop after midnight.

Low temperatures in the mid to upper 50s.

Calm winds.

Saturday

Generally overcast, although some breaks of sun are possible during the afternoon in South County. Nothing more in the way of precipitation than some spotty drizzle and sprinkles.

High temperatures in the low to mid 60s in Pittsfield, North Adams, Adams and Williamstown; mid to upper 60s in Lee and Stockbridge; near 70 in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; low 60s over the elevated terrain and hilltowns.

Light winds veering from westerly in the morning to northerly by sunset.

Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy and mild. Some patchy fog and drizzle is again possible. There is a good chance of showers toward morning. Probability of precipitation 50%. Rainfall amounts 0.10″ or less.

Low temperatures in the mid to upper 50s.

Calm winds, becoming southeasterly at 5-10 mph by morning.

Sunday

Mostly cloudy with showers likely. There may be a few embedded rumbles of thunder as well. Probability of precipitation 70%. Rainfall totals around 0.25″.

High temperatures in the mid 60s in most locations, low 60s over the elevated terrain.

Southeast winds at 5-10 mph.

Monday

Partly cloudy, very warm and muggy. High temperatures generally in the 70s.