Disclaimer: Please note that the office officially responsible for all weather watches and warnings in Berkshire County, the National Weather Service office in Albany, NY, has issued a winter weather advisory for our county for freezing rain til 9 am Monday morning. This official information should be heeded by all public officials and can be found at the following website: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/aly/
The following forecast update is provided by Joe Kravitz, meteorology instructor at BCC:
A weak warm front has stalled over the region and has become stationary (i.e. stationary front). A very light mixture of precipitation is falling this afternoon across the county as warmer air aloft overrides cold air near the surface. Enough warmer air will eventually infiltrate levels above the surface so that the precipitation will transition to all liquid (rain) across the county by nightfall. However, rain falling at any place that remains at or below 32 degrees will have “freezing rain”, rain which freezes on contact with surfaces at or near the surface. It is still at or below freezing at the surface at virtually all reporting stations in the county. At 3:30 pm, the temperature was between 30 and 31 in the North Adams/Williamstown region, between 28 and 30 in the Pittsfield area and 32 in Great Barrington and Sheffield. Temperatures in the elevated terrain and hilltowns are well below freezing, in the mid to upper 20s. For example, Peru is reporting 24 degrees. Even the elevated terrain in South County, such as in Otis and Shaw Pond, near Lee, are between 27 and 28 degrees.
I do not expect temperatures to change much overnight, although it is possible that temperatures could rise a degree or two overnight in some locations as some of the milder air aloft mixes down to the surface as precipitation falls steadier and heavier at times overnight. However, I believe only the lower elevations in South County (e.g. Great Barrington and Sheffield) will go above freezing. However, it will be close to 32 degrees in lower elevations of central and northern Berkshire as well. However, temperatures should remain well below freezing in the elevated terrain and hilltowns.
Although there is presently very little on radar, the high-resolution computer models generate an area of somewhat steadier and heavier precipitation moving through the county between midnight and daybreak, as a weak coastal low develops along the stalled front and then moves rapidly east. Most likely rainfall totals will be between 0.20″ and 0.35″.
Taking all this into consideration, it does not appear that the lower elevations will have many problems. There should not be enough ice to generate power outages and only the smaller, untreated roads are likely to be slippery, although anyone travelling should still exhibit caution. The elevated terrain and hilltowns are much more likely to have some problems, particularly if temperatures remain in the mid 20s in some of the higher elevations such as Peru. There some tree branches may fall and any untreated roads will be slippery. Even isolated power outages could occur if rainfall amounts reach 0.25″ or higher.
The steady precipitation should end by early morning and temperatures in the entire county should rise above freezing as the morning progresses on Monday.
As noted previously, rain (NOT freezing) should begin to fall steadily and heavier with the next, stronger surface low moving east along the stalled front Monday evening. Warmer air being pulled north in advance of this low (counterclockwise flow) will eventually drive temperatures well into the 40s by Tuesday. We should get a fairly healthy dose of rainfall, between 1.00″ and 2.00″. It still looks likely that we could get a few inches of “backlash” snow as the low moves by to our east late Tuesday and Tuesday evening.