Things are coming into focus quite clearly in regard to the forecast for Sandy. The models are converging on a landfall somewhere along the New Jersey coast between late afternoon and evening on Monday (about 8 pm if you want to try to nail it down more specifically). The GFS model is still generating a very low pressure of around 950 mb when it makes landfall. As noted previously, the biggest impacts in regard to storm surge should be the New Jersey coast (particularly northern), NYC, Long Island and the southern New England coast. Storm surge models that I have looked at are generating about 5-10 foot storm surge for most locations. However, since landfall may occur near high tide on Monday evening, the actual water height may be as much as 12 feet above sea-level. One concern is the Delaware Bay. Fortunately, it is likely to be to the “left” of the storm track. However, the shape of the bay should funnel water in as it narrows toward the Delaware River. One model is predicting a 12-15 ft. storm surge there.

For Berkshire County, fortunately, storm surge is not a concern. In fact, there is some good news for us in the latest models. Most of the heaviest rainfall should occur to our south, with 5-10 inches occurring in some parts of NJ, PA, MD and DE. It looks like we will only receive about 1.00 – 1.50 inches from the initial bout of rain Monday night, with another 0.50 inches spread out over the next several days. Therefore, a repeat of the rainfall flooding New England saw with Irene does not appear likely at this time. Wind, however, is a different story, and that should be the biggest impact in our area. Our winds will not be as strong as along the coast (where there is little friction over water to slow the winds down). It needs to be noted that winds at 5000 ft are projected to be near 100 mph on Monday night so elevation will have a big impact on wind speeds. This is due to less surrounding land to exert friction at higher elevations. In the lower elevations of Berkshire County, including most of the large towns, sustained wind speeds of 25-35 mph with gusts to 50 mph are likely. However, at 2000 ft. elevation, 35-45 mph winds with gusts to 65 are possible. There may even be hurricane force (>75 mph) gusts in the highest elevations. The details are still uncertain, even though I am throwing numbers around like it was pizza dough, but the bottom line is that widespread power outages appear to be quite likely.

The timeline for Berkshire County looks like this right now: Showery rain beginning early Monday morning, likely before daybreak. The rainfall should remain relatively light to occasionally moderate through a good part of the day Monday. Rainfall will become heavy at times from late Monday afternoon through Monday evening. After midnight, the rain should diminish in intensity and become more showery, but will continue off and on into Wednesday. Showers are still likely on Wednesday and Thursday but will be much lighter. Total rainfall should be between 1.50 and 2.00 inches for most parts of Berkshire County, with about 1.00 to 1.25 inches of that occurring Monday afternoon and night. Wind speeds will increase throughout the day on Monday, reaching a peak on Monday evening. However, winds will fall of a bit after midnight but still remain strong throughout the night on Monday. Winds will diminish considerably on Tuesday as the storm begins to weaken dramatically after making landfall.

To reiterate, snowfall is not a concern for us with this storm. The only place snowfall is a concern is over the mountains of West Virginia and western Virginia and possibly in parts of Ohio. Our temperatures will be in the 50s from Monday through Tuesday and then fall into the 40s Tuesday night into Thursday. Temperatures may dip into the 30s Thursday night but the atmosphere will still not be cold enough to support snow. It is possible that it could be cold enough for a few flurries or snow showers on Friday or Friday night, but probably not.