Summary: All of the models are now converging on one scenario regarding the approaching cold front. As I suspected, the model which had projected two surface lows forming along a slower moving cold front, prolonging the rainfall into Saturday, has fallen in line with the other models. The cold front located at the leading edge of the trough in the jet stream, presently located over western NY and PA will approach Berkshire County overnight with increasing clouds with some scattered showers developing in advance of the front after midnight. As the surface low pressure developing along the front rides north, heavier rain will develop toward daybreak and continue through the morning and into the afternoon. After the low passes the steadier and heavier rain should end by mid-afternoon. However, there will still be some lingering showers associated as the cold front moves very slowly through the region through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Only some sprinkles and a few scattered light showers will persist after midnight. We should receive a pretty good dousing from this system with most of the county receiving between 1.00 and 1.50 inches total rainfall. Skies should at least partially clear on Saturday and there may be a good amount of sunshine in the afternoon as the dry wedge of air between the front and the trailing upper-level low (cold pool aloft) moves through. It will be cooler, and there will probably be more cloudiness on Sunday, particularly during the afternoon as the upper-level cold pool (low) rotates through and generates some instability in the atmosphere. There is even the slight chance of a sprinkle or two but it should remain dry in most locations. It still looks like at least a temporary pattern shift next week with ridging in the eastern U.S. and a large, cold trough diving south over the western U.S.. This should give us a relatively dry and mild week but may result in the first significant snowstorm of the season in the Rockies mid-week.

Thursday Night

Increasing clouds in the evening. Becoming overcast after midnight. There is a good chance of a few scattered showers after midnight with a steadier, heavier rainfall developing toward daybreak. Probability of precipitation 90%. Rainfall totals most likely between 0.25 and 0.50 inches.

It will remain mild for this time of year as the cloud cover prevents much radiational cooling. Low temperatures will be near 50 countywide.

East-southeasterly winds at 5-10 mph.

Friday

Occasional rain and showers, heavy at times, through early to mid afternoon. Probability of precipitation 100%. Additional rainfall between 0.50 and 1.00 inches.

High temperatures in the low 60s for most of the county but only near 60 over elevated terrain and the hilltowns.

East-southeast winds at 8-12 mph.

Friday Night

Some scattered, mostly light, showers are likely in the evening with only a few sprinkles remaining after midnight. Probability of precipitation is 60% early, falling to 20% after midnight. Additional rainfall totals should be less than 0.10 inches. Rainfall totals for this entire event will most likely be between 1.00 and 1.50 inches.

It will remain mild with the persistent cloud cover overnight. Low temperatures in the mid 50s.

Light south-southeasterly winds becoming calm.

Saturday

Mostly cloudy in the morning, becoming partly cloudy during the afternoon. There is the slight chance of an isolated instability shower during the afternoon.

It will remain mild as the air immediately behind the cold front is only slightly cooler. High temperatures in the low to mid 60s.

Winds shifting from south-southeast to southwest and increasing to 8-12 mph.