Update

8:30 pm:

One of my students, who is a trained spotter and is on a career track to become a meteorologist, is keeping a running spreadsheet of his snowfall totals at the following website:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0ApGucHdcvozHdHg0eGhubjdiQTY1eGpFRks0WHNlQ2c&output=html

He lives in Peru and has been getting between 1 and 2 inches per hour for the past two hours. His snowfall total so far, as of 8 pm, is already 7.3 inches.

Berkshire County Forecast – ammendment

It now appears that showers and even a thunderstorm or two are a good bet for Thursday as a disturbance in the jet stream dips over the region. This will provide lift for a moist and somewhat unstable atmosphere and will generate widespread showers, some of which may be heavy.

Ammended forecast for Thursday:

Mostly cloudy with showers and even a few scattered thunderstorms, particularly in the afternoon. Probability of precipitation 80%. Rainfall totals around 0.50 inches although there could be up to 1.00 inch in some locations in some heavier showers and thunderstorms.

Berkshire County Forecast – Thursday, Sept. 27

Just a note before discussing today’s weather….the BCC weather station is now back online after being offline for the past few days. The display from the station, with real-time weather data updated each minute, can be accessed by clicking on “Weather Station” in the upper-left of the BCC homepage. More detailed information can be found, along with data from other local stations by going to the weather underground website: www.wunderground.com and clicking on “Berkshire Community College”.

Summary: The surface high pressure system which gave us our brief period of nice weather today is drifting slowly to our northeast. This will allow a small storm tracking along the stationary front to our south (moved through as a cold front last night and stalled to our south) to move through Berkshire County resulting in a rainy, cool day tomorrow. Whereas yesterday it appeared that we would be on the northwest fringe of the rain shield from this storm, it now appears that the area of steady rain from this storm will move directly over the county. In fact, it likely will be a fairly soaking rain with most of the county receiving around 1.00 inch of rainfall. Although the steady rain should end late tomorrow, it will remain mostly cloudy over the weekend with a chance of a few light scattered showers as we remain under the influence of the stationary front which will remain stalled over the region. On Monday, an upper-level low pressure system will rotate through the region and pull the stationary front along with it so that surface high pressure can build back into the region for a period of fair weather mid-week.

Thursday Night

It will be clear this evening followed by increasing cloudiness overnight, becoming overcast by the early morning hours. Rain is likely to develop from southwest to northeast near daybreak. Probability of precipitation is 60%. Rainfall totals should be less than 0.20 inches.

Low temperatures in the mid to upper 40s.

Light north winds will shift to easterly after midnight.

Friday

Overcast, cool and damp, with a steady rain for most of the day. Rain should end in the late afternoon to early evening. Probability of precipitation is near 100%. Rainfall totals should be near 1.00 inch countywide.

It will be unseasonably cool with temperatures rising very little. High temperatures will only reach the low 50s in most of the county. Temperatures will likely stay near 50 over the elevated terrain and may reach the mid 50s in parts of south county.

East-southeasterly winds at 5-10 mph.

Friday Night

Remaining mostly cloudy with the chance of a few lingering light showers, mostly before midnight. Probability of precipitation is 40%. Rainfall totals generally less than 0.05 inches.

Temperatures will remain relatively steady with lows in the upper 40s countywide.

Winds will be light, shifting from easterly to northwesterly late in the evening.

Saturday

Mostly cloudy and cool.

High temperatures in the upper 50s for most of the county including Pittsfield and North Adams, with mid 50s over elevated terrain and in the hilltowns. Highs will likely reach the low 60s in parts of south county, such as in Great Barrington and Sheffield.

Light northwest winds.

Daily Blogging – Berkshire County Weather Forecast

The student forecasts as part of labwork for the Introduction to Meteorology course will not begin for another month or so when they have learned enough for it to be a useful teaching tool. However, as a service to the BCC and broader Berkshire County community I have decided to begin posting my own Berkshire County forecasts and commentary daily, when time permits. I have always been frustrated by the lack of detail and, sometimes, accuracy of public forecasts for our county and hope to put my own experience and local weather/microclimate knowledge to use to improve upon that.

Summary: A slow moving cold front will move through this evening with a round of scattered showers and then stall just to our south. It will temporarily dry out and clear up tomorrow afternoon as a surface high pressure system tries to build in behind the front. However, it will cloud up for Friday and Saturday with a threat of showers both days as a few week disturbances ripple along the front just to our south. It will gradually turn cooler over the next 24 hours after passage of the front tonight and high temperatures will be below normal, only in the 50s both Friday and Saturday. A look ahead suggests that it will remain unsettled on Sunday and that the weather won’t improve considerably until the whole mess lifts out on Monday night or Tuesday. However, we may be in for a fairly extended stretch of nice weather after that.

Wednesday Night

There will be a few widely scattered, mostly light, rain showers this evening. Probability of precipitation 30% (This means that there is a 3 in 10 chance of ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION receiving measurable precipitation [i.e. 30% chance it will rain at your house]). Rainfall totals will be less than 0.05 inches.  It will remain cloudy through most of the overnight with a decreasing chance of showers. There will be some breaks in the overcast toward morning.

Cloud cover and relatively high dewpoints for this time of year will prevent temperatures from dropping much overnight and it will remain relatively mild with low temperatures in the mid to upper 50s countywide.

Winds will be light and will shift from southwesterly to northwesterly as the cold front passes through the region after midnight.

Thursday

Decreasing cloudiness over the course of the day. It will start out mostly cloudy (> 75% cloud cover) in the morning but become mostly sunny (< 25% cloud cover) during the afternoon.

The air will feel drier and cooler than Wednesday as dewpoints drop steadily into the 40s behind the cold front. Despite the cooler air behind the front, high temperatures will climb into the mid 60s in Pittsfield and North Adams under the influence of abundant afternoon sunshine, with upper 60s in Great Barrington and Sheffield. Temperatures will be in the slightly cooler low 60s in the hilltowns.

Winds will be out of the northwest at 5-10 mph.

Thursday Night

It will be clear early, with increasing cloudiness after midnight, becoming mostly cloudy by morning. There is a chance of rain toward morning. Probability of precipitation 30%. Any rainfall should total less than 0.10 inches.

Low temperatures in the mid to upper 40s.

Light winds shifting from northwest to east-northeasterly.

Friday

Overcast, cool and damp, under the influence of a light east-northeasterly breeze. There is a good chance of a period of rain as we will be on the northwest fringe of the precipitation shield of a small storm moving by to our southeast. There is considerable uncertainty as to the exact track of this small, compact surface low pressure system at this time.  I would put the probability of precipitation at 50% countywide, greater in southeast portions of the county and lesser probability to the northwest.  Precipitation amounts should be light, generally under 0.10 inches, but could be as much as 0.25 inches if the storm tracks closer.

High temperatures should only reach the mid 50s, and may not get out of the low 50s in the hilltowns.

East-northeasterly winds at 5-10 mph.

Weather Forecast Update

It now appears likely that most of Berkshire County will get some accumulating snow tonight with most likely accumulations of 1-3″ to the north and 2-4″ to the south. Probability of precipitation is now 90% to the south, decreasing to 70% to the north.

It also looks a little cooler (sorry) with a greater likelihood of showers for Sunday afternoon. Probability of precipitation 70% with high temperatures in the mid to upper 40s.

Berkshire County Forecast – Thursday, March 8

First Student Forecast of the Spring Semester

The following forecast is provided by Ginny Akabane, in conjunction with the  instructor, as part of lab work for the Introduction to Meteorology course:

Summary: A cold front will move through overnight with accompanying bands of rain and showers as we transition to more seasonable temperatures for Friday and Saturday. After a relatively minor upper level disturbance brings scattered snow showers through the region Friday night, high pressure will build in over the region bringing us fair weather for the weekend. It will be seasonably cold on Saturday but will become unseasonably mild again on Sunday as the surface high pressure system moves to our east and the clockwise wind flow around the high brings in milder weather on southwest winds.

Thursday Night

Occasional rain and showers this evening through the early morning hours, tapering off toward daybreak. Probability of precipitation near 100%. Total rainfall approx. 0.30 inches.

Mild during the evening but turning sharply colder as the cold front moves through after midnight. Temperatures falling into the 30s countywide by morning.

Breezy with southwest winds at 15-25 mph shifting to northwest after midnight. Some higher gusts to 30-35 mph are likely, particularly over the higher terrain.

Friday

Partly cloudy in the morning, becoming mostly cloudy in the afternoon, breezy and colder. There is the slight chance of a snow shower late in the afternoon. Probability of precipitation 20%.

Temperatures holding fairly steady in the mid 30s in the low elevations of central and northern Berkshire (e.g. Pittsfield, North Adams) low 30s in the hilltowns (e.g. Savoy, Windsor, Peru), and upper 30s in the lower elevations of South County (e.g. Great Barrington, Sheffield).

West, northwest winds at 10-20 mph.

Friday Night

Mostly cloudy in the evening with a good chance of some scattered snow showers. Probability of precipitation 50%. A dusting to an inch of accumulation is possible in some locations. Partial clearing after midnight.

Low temperature in the low 20s.

Remaining breezy with northwest winds at 10-20 mph.

Saturday

Partly cloudy and remaining cold but less breezy than Friday.

High temperatures around 30 in the low elevations of central and northern Berkshire (e.g. Pittsfield, North Adams), mid to upper 20s in the hilltowns and low to mid 30s in the lower elevations of South County (e.g. Great Barrington, Sheffield).

Northwest winds at 5-15 mph.

Saturday Night

Clear and seasonably cold.

Low temperatures in the low 20s.

Light northwest winds shifting to southwest after midnight.

Sunday

Mostly sunny and warmer.

High temperature in the low to mid 50s.

Southwest winds at 5-15 mph.

Rain, rain, go away!

It’s finally over (for now). BCC’s weather station has recorded 17.88 inches of rain in the month between August 8 and September 8. That is about 40% of the annual average in ONE MONTH. Ouch!!

We received the bulk of this rain (but certainly not all) from Irene and the remnants of Lee.  5.14 inches was recorded with Irene, however, there was a gap in the data due to a power outage toward the end of the storm (this technical problem is being corrected and data will not be lost in the future). Most importantly, the vast majority of this rainfall occurred over a 12 hour period, and this heavy rainfall rate, combined with the fact that the ground was already saturated from 5 inches of rain during the first part of the month, was responsible for the tragic flooding. In fact, Vermont, which was devastated by flooding, only received 7-8 inches.

During the past 4 days we received 7.35 inches of rain. However, flooding was not as bad (for Berkshire County) because the rain fell over a more extended period. The first few days of rain were caused by a stalled frontal boundary and the last two were from the remnants of Lee. However, much of the early rainfall was still Lee related as much of Lee’s moisture was funneled north along the stalled frontal boundary.

There are presently 3 tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin (Katia, Maria and Nate).  Katia (hurricane) is headed out to sea and Nate (tropical storm) will come onshore along the Mexican coast in the next few days. Maria is tracking toward the East Coast and may strengthen into a hurricane. However, it is still many days away and the track is highly uncertain once it reaches the Bahamas.  It still, very likely, will recurve out into the Atlantic before making landfall but the track will have to be closely watched. Go to the National Hurricane Center website (www.nhc.noaa.gov) for the latest (and most official) updates (as well as cool satellites, etc.). This and many other websites can be found on the “Weather Links” page of this website.

Saturday looks like a beautiful day (much like today). Sunday will be a bit cloudier and there is a slight chance of a shower in the afternoon. However, most of us should remain dry (finally). Have a good weekend. Later…..