Still looks like most will get 1-2″ but there could be 3″ in a few spots over the elevated terrain so…..let’s say 1-3″.

Note: Clicking on underlined red text provides links to various weather maps.

Summary: The last in the series of jet stream disturbances to rotate through the region this weekend looks a little more vigorous than it did yesterday. In fact, it will be vigorous enough to generate a weak and diffuse surface low pressure system that will move rapidly through New England and off the coast Sunday night. As a result, I think snowfall totals, although still relatively light, may be a little greater than I forecast yesterday. Snow will likely develop late in the day Sunday, between about 4 and 6 pm. The snow should be relatively steady through the evening, ending by midnight. Snow should be mostly light, although there may be a few moderate bursts. Most likely accumulation totals will be 1-2″.

Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy and not quite as cold as previous nights. There is a chance of a snow flurry or snow shower, predominantly after midnight. Probability of precipitation 30%. No accumulation expected.

Low temperatures in the low teens.

Light northwesterly winds.

Sunday

Partly sunny early. Becoming overcast by noon with snow developing between 4 and 6 pm. Continued cold.

High temperatures near 20 in Pittsfield, Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; low 20s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; upper teens over the elevated terrain.

Light westerly winds, shifting to westerly and then southerly during the afternoon.

Sunday Night

Snow during the evening, ending by midnight. The snow will be mostly light with a few moderate bursts possible. Probability of precipitation 80%. Most likely snowfall accumulations 1-2″. Remaining overcast after midnight, becoming breezy with partial clearing toward daybreak.

Low temperatures in the low to mid teens.

Light southwesterly winds in the evening, shifting to northwesterly and increasing to 10-15 mph after midnight.

Monday

Partly cloudy, breezy and cold.

High temperatures near 20 in Pittsfield; low 20s in Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams, Williamstown, Great Barrington and Sheffield and; mid to upper teens over the elevated terrain.

West-northwesterly winds at 10-15 mph.

Note: Clicking on underlined red text provides links to various weather maps.

Summary: The jet stream will remain zonally oriented (“flat” east to west) and to our south for the next four or five days so we should continue to have cold temperatures and no significant storms until at least Thursday of next week. A series of minor jet stream disturbances will be moving through later in the weekend. There is only the chance for a few scattered snow showers and flurries late Saturday night and during the day Sunday. A period of light snow may develop during Sunday evening with any accumulations on the order of a dusting to 1″. Otherwise, it should be a rather uneventful February weekend (weather wise). It will remain fairly cold, with temperatures below average, with highs in the 20s and overnight lows near zero Friday night and in the low teens Saturday night.

Surface high pressure will build back into the region for Monday through Wednesday with generally fair skies. It will remain cold with high temperatures only in the teens and 20s. It is still uncertain if and how a coastal storm on Thursday will impact Berkshire County. Today it is looking a little more disorganized and less intense than it did yesterday and the long-range models are all over the place both from run to run within models, as well as between different models. I suspect there will be more certainty to that forecast by Monday.

Friday Night

Mostly cloudy with the chance of a snow flurry this evening then becoming clear and very cold. Probability of precipitation 20% this evening. No accumulation expected.

Low temperatures near zero.

West-northwesterly winds at 5-10 mph.

Saturday

Mostly sunny in the morning. The sun will be dimmed by increasing high clouds in the afternoon.

High temperatures in the low to mid 20s in Pittsfield; mid 20s in Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; mid to upper 20s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; near 20 over the elevated terrain.

West-northwesterly winds at 5-10 mph.

Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy and not quite as cold. There is the chance of a snow flurry or snow shower after midnight. Probability of precipitation 20%. No accumulation expected.

Low temperatures in the low teens.

Light northwest winds.

Sunday

Partly sunny in the morning, mostly cloudy in the afternoon. There is the chance of a snow shower or flurry, particularly late in the day. Probability of precipitation 30%. No accumulation expected.

High temperatures in the low 20s in Pittsfield; low to mid 20s in Adams, North Adams, Williamstown, Lee and Stockbridge; mid 20s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; near 20 over the elevated terrain.

Light northwesterly winds.

Sunday Night

There is a good chance that a period of light snow will develop during the evening. Probability of precipitation 50%. Any snowfall accumulations will most likely be a dusting to 1″.

Note: Clicking on underlined red text provides links to various weather maps.

Summary: After yesterday’s storm our weather will be quiet for the next few days as the jet stream wave pattern flattens out and a sprawling surface high pressure system continues to build into and over the central and eastern U.S.. A weak disturbance in the jet stream flow will rotate through the region on Sunday. As a result, clouds will increase during the afternoon on Saturday and Saturday night and snow showers or some off and on light snow become likely after midnight on Saturday and during the day Sunday. It appears that any accumulations will be light, from a dusting to 2″ at most. The long-range models are now consistently indicating another coastal storm may bring us significant precipitation next Wednesday night and Thursday. The projected track of the storm suggests snow or snow changing to mixed frozen precipitation. However, it is too early to draw any conclusions.

Thursday Night

Mostly clear to partly cloudy and cold.

Low temperatures in the low to mid single digits.

Light westerly winds, 5-10 mph over the elevated terrain.

Friday

Mostly sunny and cold.

High temperatures near 20 in Pittsfield; near 20 to low 20s in Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; low 20s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; mid to upper teens over the elevated terrain.

Westerly winds at 8-12 mph.

Friday Night

Mostly clear and cold.

Low temperatures in the low to mid single digits.

Westerly winds at 5-10 mph.

Saturday

Mostly sunny in the morning with increasing cloudiness in the afternoon.

High temperatures in the low 20s in Pittsfield; low to mid 20s in Adams, North Adams, Williamstown, Lee and Stockbridge; mid 20s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; near 20 over the elevated terrain.

Light northwesterly winds.

Saturday Night and Sunday

Increasing clouds Saturday night with a chance of snow showers after midnight. Probability of precipitation 40%. Overcast with snow showers or some off and on light snow likely on Sunday. Probability of precipitation 60%. Any accumulations should be light, a dusting to 1-2″. Low temperatures in the mid to upper teens and high temperatures in the low to mid 20s.

Note: Clicking on underlined red text provides links to various weather maps.

Summary: The outlook for Wednesday’s snowstorm has not changed significantly since yesterday. Snow will likely develop well after midnight Tuesday night and become heavy at times. By the morning commute, several inches of snow should have already accumulated and it will likely be snowing at moderate to heavy rates, as much as 1″ per hour or even more in a few locations. Snow will continue, moderate to heavy at times through the morning and then taper off during the afternoon. The estimated total of 8-12″ still looks like a pretty good bet. I will update this tomorrow afternoon.

Monday Night

Partly cloudy early, then becoming mostly clear and seasonably cold.

Low temperatures in the low teens, near 10 over the elevated terrain.

Light northwesterly winds.

Tuesday

Mostly sunny in the morning. The sun will be dimmed by increasing high and mid-level clouds as the afternoon progresses.

High temperatures in the upper 20s to near 30 in Pittsfield; near 30 in Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; low 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; mid to upper 20s over the elevated terrain.

Light west-northwesterly winds.

Tuesday Night

Mostly cloudy with snow developing well after midnight and continuing heavy at times til morning. The snow will most likely begin between 3 and 5 am. Probability of precipitation 90%. Likely snowfall accumulations 2-4″ by 7 or 8 am.

Low temperatures in the upper teens to the low 20s.

Calm winds becoming easterly at 5-10 mph toward morning.

Wednesday

Snow. Snow will be moderate to heavy at times through most of the morning, decreasing in intensity during the afternoon before ending late afternoon to early evening. Probability of precipitation near 100%. Likely total snowfall 8-12″.

Temperatures will hold fairly steady with highs in the low 20s in Pittsfield, Adams, North Adams, Williamstown, Lee and Stockbridge; low to mid 20s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; upper teens to near 20 over the elevated terrain.

East-northeasterly winds at 8-12 mph shifting to northerly in the afternoon.

Note: Clicking on underlined red text provides links to various weather maps.

Summary: As winter storm “Maximus” (don’t get me started….), pardon me….as a weak surface low pressure system moves into eastern Canada today it will slowly drag its trailing cold front slowly through our region this afternoon. This will result in a period of mixed rain and snow showers during the afternoon. Showers will start as rain and then mix with and change to snow toward evening. Precipitation will likely stay all rain in South County. However, temperatures will be near or, more likely, above freezing so travel problems should be relatively minimal in the lower elevations. However, travel could get a little slippery over the elevated terrain toward evening.

Once the cold front passes through it will stall to our south. Just a reminder to my students, these surface fronts are just the surface representation of the leading (southern) edge of the polar front/jet stream so the stalling of this surface cold front indicates that the leading edge of the jet stream will also be stalled just to our south. A disturbance in the jet stream flow pattern will provide the generation mechanism and the jet stream flow will provide the guiding pathway for another weak surface low pressure system which will slide by to our south on Monday (what will the Weather Channel call this one…..hmmmm….”Nautilus”?). The northern fringe of this low’s precipitation shield may brush South County with a few flurries or a brief period of light snow but very little, if any, accumulation.

It now looks like the more vigorous surface low I had mentioned for late Tuesday night/Wednesday (“Oblivion”?) will track south of us, off the Del Marva Peninsula and south of Long Island and Cape Cod, leaving us in the cold air to the north for the entire storm. As a result, the precipitation will likely remain as just snow and not change over to sleet and freezing rain in Berkshire County. The time line looks like this: Snow developing after midnight and continuing heavy at times through the morning. Expect 3-6″ by the morning commute with moderate to heavy snow at that time. Snow will taper off during the afternoon and into the evening. Most likely snowfall totals look to be in the 8-12″ range. I will update this situation as things evolve over the next few days…..

Sunday

Mostly cloudy with scattered showers likely this afternoon. Any showers will begin as rain and then mix with and change to snow later in the afternoon and toward evening. Probability of precipitation 70%. Likely total liquid equivalent around 0.10″. Snowfall accumulations a dusting in the lower elevations of central and northern Berkshire, with up to 1/2″ or even 1″ over the elevated terrain to the north.

Temperatures reaching the low to mid 40s by noon and then falling through the 30s during the afternoon, reaching the upper 20s over the elevated terrain to the north.

Westerly winds at 5-10 mph hour this morning, shifting to northwesterly and increasing to 8-12 mph this afternoon.

Sunday Night

A few lingering snow flurries before midnight, then remaining mostly cloudy.

Low temperatures in the low 20s, near 20 over the elevated terrain.

Northwesterly winds at 8-12 mph in the evening, becoming light north-northwesterly after midnight.

Monday

Mostly cloudy with a chance for a few light snow showers or a period of light snow in South County during the morning, then partial clearing from north to south during the afternoon. Probability of precipitation 30% in South County with a dusting of snow at most.

High temperatures in the low 30s in Pittsfield, Lee, Stockbridge, Great Barrington and Sheffield; low to mid 30s in Adams, NorthAdams and Williamstown; upper 20s to near 30 over the elevated terrain.

Light north-northwesterly winds.

Monday Night

Partly cloudy and colder.

Low temperatures in the low to mid teens.

Light north-northwesterly winds in the evening becoming calm after midnight.

Tuesday

Partly sunny.

High temperatures in the mid 30s in Pittsfield; mid to upper 30s in Adams, North Adams, Williamstown, Lee and Stockbridge; upper 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; low 30s over the elevated terrain.

Light northwesterly winds shifting to southeasterly late.

Note: Clicking on underlined red text provides links to various weather maps.

Summary: It looks like the weak storm passing by to our northwest this weekend will not make much of an impact in Berkshire County. The warm front should pass through dry on Saturday. There should be nothing more than some drizzle after midnight on Saturday due to a low overcast and some fog. However, those in the elevated terrain may see a few pockets of freezing drizzle. As the trailing cold front moves through on Sunday there is just the chance of a few scattered, light rain showers. It will also be quite mild this weekend compared to recent weeks.

It still appears that once the cold front stalls and becomes stationary to our south, a surface low  pressure system tracking along the front will pass by to our south on Monday but it may be a close call so I will keep an eye on that over the weekend. A more potent storm will likely impact us Tuesday night and Wednesday. Right now it looks like accumulating snow late Tuesday night, with as much as 6-8″ by morning, with a changeover to sleet and freezing rain during Wednesday morning as the storm moves out. However, my experience with these types of storms is that the changeover to sleet and freezing rain frequently occurs sooner than the models indicate this far out so it is likely that we will get less snowfall than that. Also, the jet stream pattern will not be particularly amplified so it looks like the storm will move through quickly and that this event may last 12 hours or less. However, it looks like Wednesday morning may be a tough commute.

Friday Night

Mostly cloudy and relatively mild.

Low temperatures in the low to mid 20s.

Winds light and variable, becoming calm after midnight.

Saturday

Mixed clouds and sun early, becoming mostly cloudy by late morning. Mild.

High temperatures in the mid 30s in Pittsfield; mid to upper 30s in Adams, NorthAdams, Williamstown, Lee and Stockbridge; upper 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; near 30 to low 30s over the elevated terrain.

South-southeasterly winds at 5-10 mph.

Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy with patchy fog developing. There is a chance of spotty drizzle after midnight. There may be a few pockets of freezing drizzle over the elevated terrain. Probability of precipitation 30%. Precipitation totals  less than 0.05″.

Temperatures will drop a few degrees before midnight with temperatures falling to the low 30s in most locations, mid 30s in South County and upper 20s to near 30 over the elevated terrain. Temperatures will then likely rise slowly after midnight, reaching the mid 30s in most locations, mid to upper 30s in South County and low 30s over the elevated terrain by morning.

Southerly winds at 8-12 mph, shifting to southwesterly after midnight.

Sunday

Mostly cloudy and mild with the chance of a rain shower. Becoming breezy and cooler in the afternoon. Showers should be mostly light with rainfall totals generally 0.10″ or less. Probability of precipitation 40%.

High temperatures near 40 in Pittsfield; near 40 to low 40s in Adams, NorthAdams, Williamstown, Lee and Stockbridge; low 40s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; upper 30s over the elevated terrain.

Southwesterly winds at 5-10 mph in the morning, shifting to west-northwesterly and increasing to 10-15 mph in the afternoon.

Note: Clicking on underlined red text provides links to various weather maps.

Summary: The standing wave jet stream trough which has kept us in the deep freeze for the last few weeks is finally starting to flatten out as the jet stream becomes more zonally oriented. As a result, our temperatures will be more moderate for the next several days. As a trade off, skies will be cloudier and our weather more murky as the jet stream settles over the region.

The surface high pressure system which brought us sunny skies for the past few days will weaken and slide to our east from tonight into Saturday morning. Therefore, there will be considerable cloudiness later tonight through Friday, but no threat of precipitation. A weak surface low will track to our northwest, through the Ohio Valley and the eastern Great Lakes Saturday and Saturday night. It will drag its warm front through the region on Saturday. There will not be much “forcing” or moisture with this weak system so the warmer air overrunning the colder air at the surface will only generate limited, if any, precipitation on Saturday and Saturday night. Any light precipitation will be in the form of snow in the morning, with little if any accumulation, and then will transition to sleet, freezing rain and rain Saturday afternoon and evening. Precipitation may remain freezing rain over the elevated terrain Saturday night. Temperatures will be very close to freezing, if not above, so I do not think there will be much in the way of problems with any limited frozen precipitation on Saturday and Saturday evening.

We will briefly be in the “warm sector” of the storm Saturday night and early Sunday but it will not get particularly warm as it will be difficult to scrape away the cold, dense air hugging close to the ground. Still, it will feel downright balmy over the next several days with temperatures reaching the 30s for a good part of Friday through Sunday. The weak surface low will then drag its cold front through on Sunday with only the chance of a few scattered rain showers. It will then turn colder (however, not nearly as cold as it has been), with a return to at least partly sunny skies, on Monday and Tuesday as surface high pressure builds back in as the jet stream shifts just to our south and the associated cold front stalls and becomes stationary. A coastal storm will develop along the front Monday night and Tuesday but should track by well to our south. This will set the stage for what looks to be a stronger, but messy storm on Tuesday night and Wednesday. It still looks like this storm will track by to our northwest, but it will be close. Right now it looks like some accumulating snow Tuesday night, changing to sleet and freezing rain on Wednesday.

Thursday Night

Clear early, then increasing clouds. Not as cold as recent nights

Low temperatures near 10, low teens in South County and upper single digits over the elevated terrain.

Southerly winds at 5-10 mph this evening, becoming southwesterly at 8-12 mph after midnight.

Friday

Partly sunny and milder.

High temperatures in the low 30s in Pittsfield; low to mid 30s in Adams, NorthAdams, Williamstown, Lee and Stockbridge; mid 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; near 30 over the elevated terrain.

Southwesterly winds at 5-10 mph in the morning, shifting to westerly in the afternoon.

Friday Night

Mostly cloudy with a chance of a snow flurry or snow shower toward daybreak. Probability of precipitation 30%. No accumulation expected.

Low temperatures generally in the low 20s.

Winds light and variable.

Saturday

Overcast with the chance of scattered snow flurries or snow showers in the morning, transitioning to the chance of light sleet or freezing rain showers or freezing drizzle in the afternoon. Any precipitation may change to plain rain, particularly in valley locations. Probability of precipitation 40%. Little if any snow and/or ice accumulation.

High temperatures in the low 30s in Pittsfield; low to mid 30s in Adams, NorthAdams, Williamstown, Lee and Stockbridge; mid 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; upper 20s to near 30 over the elevated terrain.

Southerly winds at 5-10 mph, shifting to southeasterly late.

Note: Clicking on underlined red text provides links to various weather maps.

Summary: The surface low pressure system that is generating an unusual winter storm in the deep south and southeast will move out to sea to our south overnight. We will see cloud cover as a result tonight but no precipitation other than the chance of a snow flurry in the southeastern corner of the county. Surface high pressure will then build in for Wednesday and Thursday  to give us a couple of beautiful, sunny winter days with high temperatures moderating from the teens on Wednesday to the 20s on Thursday.

The jet stream is undergoing a pattern shift, from the amplified pattern that has kept a standing wave trough over us for the past two weeks and allowed repeated arctic air incursions, to a more zonal (west to east) orientation. As a result, our temperatures will likely be closer to average for Thursday into early next week.

A weak surface low pressure system will move by just to our north on Saturday and Saturday night. The track of the low should give us a light mixture of precipitation types but not a big storm by any stretch. I will comment more on this as it develops. It looks like we may see a bigger storm mid-week next week. Right now it looks like the track of the surface low should be well to our north and west. If this occurs, we are likely to see mixed precipitation changing to rain.

Tuesday Night

Increasing cloudiness this evening. Mostly cloudy after midnight with the chance of a snow flurry in the southeastern corner of the county. Probability of precipitation there 30%. No accumulation expected. Skies should clear from northwest to southeast toward daybreak.

Remaining very cold, with low temperatures in the low single digits, low to mid single digits in South County and low single digits below zero to near zero over the elevated terrain.

Light south-southwesterly winds.

Wednesday

Mostly sunny and not quite as cold. It may be partly cloudy for a time late in the day over North County. Becoming breezy in the afternoon.

High temperatures in the mid to upper teens in Pittsfield; upper teens in Adams, NorthAdams, Williamstown, Lee and Stockbridge; near 20 in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; low to mid teens over the elevated terrain.

Westerly winds at 5-10 mph in the morning, increasing to 10-15 mph in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night

Mostly clear and cold.

Low temperatures in the low single digits, low to mid single digits in South County and low single digits below zero to near zero over the elevated terrain.

Westerly winds diminishing from 10-15 mph to 5-10 mph during the evening, then becoming light after midnight.

Thursday

Sunny and not as cold.

High temperatures in the mid 20s in Pittsfield; mid to upper 20s in Adams, NorthAdams, Williamstown, Lee and Stockbridge; upper 20s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; low 20s over the elevated terrain.

Light west-southwesterly winds in the morning, becoming southerly at 5-10 mph n the afternoon.

Note: Clicking on underlined red text provides links to various weather maps.

Summary: The deep trough in the jet stream wave pattern which has been camped out over us for days is beginning to flatten out slightly and is lifting northeast. As a result, tonight and tomorrow will not be nearly as cold as recent days. However, another pool of arctic air is beginning to dive southward out of Canada, into the western side of the trough. This will serve to re-amplify the trough so the “warm up” will be short-lived. The leading edge of this pool of cold arctic air will move into the northeast Saturday night and Sunday will, once again, be quite frigid. The arctic cold front at the leading edge of this cold pool of air will generate a band of fairly vigorous snow showers and, possibly, squalls Saturday afternoon and evening as the denser (heavier) cold air lifts the “milder” air over us. The snow should move in mid to late afternoon and linger into the evening. Accumulations should be relatively light, with most locations receiving 1″ to as much as  2″, with 3″ possible over a few “favored” spots in the elevated terrain. Lower elevations in South County may receive less than 1″. It will turn windy and much colder late Saturday night and Sunday. There may be a few lake effect snow flurries/showers on Sunday with a mixture of sun and clouds.

A weak “Alberta Clipper” type surface low pressure system will swing through the Great Lakes and by to our north on Sunday night and Monday. As its weak warm front swings through Sunday night we may see a few snow showers and then again on Monday as it drags its cold front through. However, I don’t expect much in the way of accumulation from this system. We will be briefly in the “warm sector” (between the warm front and cold front) of this low on Monday so temperatures will be milder, although don’t expect anything more than 20s. After this low passes by it will draw cold arctic air back into the trough behind it and our temperatures will be frigid, once again, for a good part of next week. The long range models suggest that the amplified standing wave in the jet stream pattern will begin to flatten out and become more zonally (west to east) oriented late next week. If this occurs, temperatures should begin to moderate by next weekend. Hopefully, this change in the jet stream will enable storms to dip far enough south to provide precipitation to help alleviate the drought along the west coast as well.

Friday Night

Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, but not as cold as recent nights.

Temperatures will only drop a few degrees this evening, with low temperatures in the mid to upper single digits in most locations, near 10 in South County and low to mid single digits over the elevated terrain. Temperatures should rise toward or into the low teens toward morning.

South-southwesterly winds at 10-20 mph.

Saturday

Mostly cloudy and breezy. Not as cold as recent days. A band of snow and snow showers will move through the county beginning mid afternoon and continuing through the evening. Probability of precipitation 90%. Most likely total snow accumulations (through the evening) 1-2″ in most locations, with a dusting to 1″ in the lower elevations of South County and as much as 3″ over a few spots in the elevated terrain.

High temperatures in the low 20s in Pittsfield, Adams, NorthAdams and Williamstown; low to mid 20s in Lee, Stockbridge, Great Barrington and Sheffield and; upper teens to near 20 over the elevated terrain.

South-southwesterly winds at 10-20 mph, diminishing somewhat toward evening.

Saturday Night

Evening snow and snow showers, ending before midnight, then clearing, breezy and much colder after midnight.

Low temperatures in the low single digits, near zero over the elevated terrain. Wind chill temperatures in the teens below zero after midnight.

Southwesterly winds at 10-15 mph in the evening, shifting to west-northwesterly at 10-20 mph, with gusts 25-30 mph after midnight.

Sunday

Mixed clouds and sun, breezy and very cold. There is the chance of a snow flurry or shower. Probability of precipitation 30%. Nothing more than a dusting of snow in a few spots.

High temperatures near 10 in Pittsfield, Adams, NorthAdams and Williamstown; low teens in Lee, Stockbridge, Great Barrington and Sheffield and; mid to upper single digits over the elevated terrain. Wind chill temperatures in the teens below zero early, single digits below zero in the afternoon.

West-northwesterly winds at 10-20 mph with gusts 25-30 mph, shifting to west-southwest and diminishing late.