The following forecast is provided by Christine Tower, in conjunction with the instructor, as part of lab work for the Introduction to Meteorology course:
Summary: The jet stream continues to direct storms to our north and west, leaving us in the milder air so that any precipitation we receive is of the liquid (non-frozen) variety. The low pressure system which gave the upper midwest a snow storm yesterday is tracking by to our north today. It pulled its associated warm front through last night, giving us a period of showers. This has resulted in an unseasonably mild day today as we sit in the cyclone’s “warm sector”. The surface low will drag it’s cold front through this evening with another round of rain showers. However, the frontal passage will open the door to a fairly prolonged period of fair weather as surface high pressure builds in for the remainder of the week. (The following note provided by Joe Kravitz……For those of you dreaming of a white christmas, the long range computer models are hinting at a possible storm for late this upcoming weekend. The models are quite divergent with the track, however, with the GFS [US model] looking like light snow and the ECMWF [European model] generating a much warmer scenario with mixed precipitation turning to rain. By the way this season is going I would lean toward the warmer scenario. Updates to come….)
Overcast with occasional rain showers this evening. Rain showers will begin tapering off by the early morning hours (1 or 2 am) and will end before daybreak. Probability of precipitation near 100%. Rainfall totals near 0.25 inches. It is likely that the precipitation will end as a brief period of snow, particularly over the elevated terrain. However, there will be little if any accumulation, perhaps a dusting in some locations, with up to 1/2″, at most, over the higher terrain.
It will be mild this evening, with temperatures holding in the upper 40s to low 50s. Temperatures will begin to drop after the cold front passes late this evening with low temperatures in the low 30s by daybreak with upper 20s over the elevated terrain and hilltowns, and mid 30s in South County.
Southwest winds at 10-15 mph this evening, shifting to the northwest and increasing to 15-20 mph as the cold front passes late this evening (around 10 pm).
Lingering low clouds early, then clearing, becoming mostly sunny by afternoon. It will be breezy and much colder.
Temperatures will hold steady in the low to mid 30s, in most locations, near 30 in the elevated terrain, through early afternoon. Temperatures will then begin to drop, reaching the upper 20s by sunset , except mid 20s over the elevated terrain.
North west winds 10-20 with gusts up to 30 mph and 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph over the elevated terrain. Winds will begin to diminish during the late afternoon.
Tuesday night
Mostly clear and seasonably cold.
Low temperature near 20 in most locations, mid to upper teens in the elevated terrain and hilltowns.
West-northwest winds 5-10 mph in the evening, becoming light after midnight.
Mostly sunny, although the sunshine may be dimmed at times by high clouds from a storm passing well to our south.
Seasonably cold, with high temperatures in the mid 30s in Pittsfield, mid to high 30s in Adams, North Adams, and Williamstown, high 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield, and upper 20s to low 30s over the elevated terrain and hilltowns, depending on elevation.
Light westerly winds in the morning, becoming light and variable in the afternoon.