Posted at 4:00 pm
Summary and Analysis:
The models were running a little on the warm side yesterday. As a result, instead of freezing rain changing to rain during the afternoon in the valleys, we got a coating of snow and sleet early and now have a widespread freezing rain event throughout the county. As of 2:30 pm, freezing rain with some sleet mixed in was falling throughout the county, with temperatures between 29 – 32 degrees in the valleys and 24 – 28 degrees over the elevated terrain. Freezing rain and sleet should taper off late this afternoon (around 3-4 pm) then pick up again for a short period around dinnertime (around 5-7 pm). From 7 pm until midnight or so there should only be off and on light freezing rain and drizzle. Temperatures should begin to rise near midnight and rise above freezing countywide after midnight. Precipitation should mostly shut down after midnight except for a brief bout of heavier rain showers between about 3 and 5 am.
As the surface warm front, extending southeastward from the surface low tracking into Quebec, moves through around midnight, Berkshire County will move into the “warm sector” of the storm. Winds will shift to the southwest and temperatures will rise rapidly into the 40s by Wednesday morning. However, the precipitation will mostly shut off as well, as is typical once a warm front passes. The trailing cold front (extending south from the departing surface low) will then move through during the early morning hours. A pre(cold)frontal band of heavier rain showers will move through just before dawn and then there will be nothing more than a few light showers with the passage of the actual front during the morning. Temperatures will then plunge precipitously through the 30s during the afternoon and into the 20s by evening on gusty northwesterly winds.
The cold front will then slow down and stall to our south Wednesday night. This will set the stage for a significant snow event for Berkshire County. With cold air in place over the county (temperatures near 20 by morning and falling into the teens during the day on Thursday), a surface low will develop along the front in Virginia overnight and then intensify as it moves northeastward off the DelMarva Peninsula Thursday morning and then tracks just south of Long Island and Cape Cod during the day. Snow will likely develop after midnight and continue moderate to heavy at times into Thursday afternoon. Most likely accumulations are 6 – 12″, with the highest amounts in the elevated terrain to the east, particularly southeast, and the lowest amounts in northwestern portions. I will update this forecast tomorrow afternoon……
Berkshire County Forecast:
Off and on, mostly light, freezing rain and drizzle until about midnight. Additional ice accumulations of up to 0.10″. A little light rain or drizzle after midnight except for a period of heavier rain showers shortly before dawn. Probability of precipitation 90%. Total liquid equivalent overnight 0.10″ to 0.20″. Temperatures will hold steady near 30 in the lower elevations and mid to upper 20s over the elevated terrain during the evening and then rise after midnight, reaching the 40s by morning. Easterly winds at 10 – 15 mph, shifting to southwesterly after midnight.
Cloudy and mild during the morning with a few scattered light rain showers. Cloudy, windy, and turning much colder during the afternoon. High temperatures in the mid to upper 40s during the morning, falling into and through the 30s during the afternoon. Southwest winds at 10 – 15 mph during the early morning, shifting to west-northwesterly and increasing to 15 – 25 mph, with gusts to 35 mph late morning and during the afternoon.
Overcast and much colder with snow developing after midnight. Probability of precipitation 80%. Likely snowfall totals 2-4″ by morning. Low temperatures near 20. Northwest winds at 5 – 10 mph, shifting to northeast by morning.
Snow, moderate to heavy at times during the morning, tapering off during the afternoon. Probability of precipitation 90%. Likely storm total snowfall 6 – 12″ with the lowest totals in northwestern portions and greatest in the elevated terrain to the east. It will be quite cold, with temperatures holding steady near 20 during the morning, falling into the upper teens during the afternoon. North-northeast winds at 5 – 10 mph in the morning, becoming windy in the afternoon, with northwest winds at 15 – 25 mph, with gusts to 35 mph.