Forecast Update

Posted Tuesday, January 31 at 1:30 pm

I do not see any significant change to the forecast I posted yesterday afternoon. It still looks like 2 – 4″ is the most likely range. Intermittent light snow through tonight. It looks like the snow should pretty much have ended by daybreak on Wednesday.

Berkshire County Forecast – Monday, January 30

Summary:

A weak Alberta Clipper type surface low pressure system will bring Berkshire County a light, fluffy snowfall over the next few days. Light intermittent snow should develop across the county from south to north Tuesday afternoon and continue into Wednesday morning, with off and on snow showers continuing during the day on Wednesday. Snow showers Right now it looks like the most likely accumulation is in the 2 – 4″ range. Once the low finally departs off the coast Wednesday night, it will turn cold and blustery with a few scattered snow flurries and snow showers through the weekend. Our next chance for significant snow still looks like Sunday night and Monday but the potential storm is looking less impressive than it was a few days ago.

Analysis:

Weak surface low pressure is presently located over Minnesota. This low center will move southeastward across the lower Great Lakes overnight tonight and then slowly eastward across southern New England and out to sea on Tuesday and Wednesday. The low will weaken and split in two as it moves offshore which will slow its eastward progression even further. As a result, we will have a prolonged period of light intermittent snow and snow showers beginning Tuesday afternoon and continuing right into Wednesday evening. Temperatures will be relatively cold at the surface and aloft compared with our recent precipitation events so the snow should be light and fluffy.

Light snow should develop from south to north early Tuesday afternoon and continue off and on through the night. Off and on snow showers should linger through the day on Wednesday as the low splits and the more westward located center moves slowly to our east and offshore. Likely total accumulations by the time the snow ends Wednesday evening is 2 – 4″ with, as usual, the least amounts in the lower elevations and the greatest amounts in the elevated terrain to the east. There may be a few spots in the lower elevations with a bit less than 2″ and a few spots with a bit more than 4″ in the elevated terrain.

As the low departs, it will help to amplify the upper-level trough which generated it and this will bring cold air from Canada into Berkshire County Thursday through the weekend, as the trough propagates very slowly eastward and becomes centered over our region. At the same time, surface high pressure developing over the Great Plains under the western side of the trough will move very slowly eastward, finally reaching the Northeast by Sunday. The pressure gradient between the departing low and the approaching high will generate fairly strong westerly breezes. As those winds move over the Great Lakes, they will pick up moisture and we will see quite a bit of clouds and some scattered flurries and snow showers right into the weekend. It will also feel quite cold without much sun and low wind chill temperatures.

Forecast:

Monday Night

Partly cloudy and cold. Low temperatures near 10, low teens in the lower elevations of South County and upper single digits over the elevated terrain. Westerly winds at 5 – 10 mph this evening, becoming light after midnight.

Tuesday

Lowering and thickening clouds during the morning. Becoming overcast by noon. Light snow developing from south to north during the early afternoon. Intermittent light snow through the afternoon. Probability of precipitation 80%. An inch or so accumulation is likely. High temperatures in the low to mid 20s, near 20 over the elevated terrain. Light southeasterly winds in the morning becoming easterly at 5 – 10 mph in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night

Intermittent light snow. Probability of precipitation 80%. Likely accumulations 1 – 3″. Temperatures holding steady in the low to mid 20s, near 20 over the elevated terrain. East-southeasterly winds at 5 – 10 mph in the evening, shifting to southwesterly after midnight.

Wednesday

Light snow ending early, then mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely. Probability of precipitation 60%. An additional 1″ or less of accumulation likely. Likely total snowfall 2 – 4″. High temperature in the low 30s, low to mid 30s over the lower elevations of South County, near 30 over the elevated terrain. West-southwesterly winds at 10 – 15 mph, diminishing during the afternoon.

Wednesday Night and Thursday

Mostly cloudy and seasonably cold with the chance of a snow shower or flurry. Becoming breezy during the day on Thursday. Low temperatures near 20 Wednesday night, rising only slightly to a high in the mid 20s on Thursday, low 20s over the elevated terrain. Westerly winds at 5 – 10 mph Wednesday night, becoming west-northwesterly at 10 – 15 mph during the day on Thursday with wind chill temperatures in the teens.

Berkshire County Forecast – Friday, January 27

Posted at 3:15 pm

Summary:

Berkshire County will see a return to more typical winter weather for the foreseeable future. Temperatures will hover within several degrees of average, with some slight ups and downs over the next week or so. West-northwesterly breezes will bring mostly cloudy skies with a few, scattered lake-effect snow flurries for the next few days. On Monday we will likely see a bit more sun but it will be colder. An Alberta Clipper type low will slide by to our north and likely give us a little light snow Tuesday and/or Tuesday night, but will probably only drop a few inches at most. The next chance for a significant storm doesn’t look to be until late next weekend into early the following week.

Analysis:

A deep and broad trough in the polar front/jet stream wave pattern is covering most of the U.S. this afternoon. A deep and broad area of surface low pressure in the Canadian Maritime, along the northeastern margin of this trough is creating a steep pressure gradient that is generating strong west-northwesterly breezes across the Northeast. This wind is generating bands of lake-effect snow showers downwind of Lake Erie and Ontario. A few, but not many of these showers are making it into Berkshire County as a few flurries. The trough will propagate very slowly eastward and the surface low will track very slowly northeastward so our weather will not change much over the weekend. Expect mostly cloudy skies with a few scattered flurries with seasonable temperatures. We may see a little bit more sun on Sunday, but don’t count on it.

The trough will eventually amplify and narrow, becoming centered over the Northeast on Monday. This will make for a bit colder day on Monday but with more sunshine as surface high pressure briefly noses in from the south. A disturbance/short-wave will develop along the back edge of the trough and generate a weak, Alberta Clipper type low over south-central Canada on Monday. This low will track southeastward across the Great Lakes on Monday night and then slide by just to our north on Tuesday and Tuesday night. This low will likely generate a dusting to a few inches of snow in Berkshire County but I will update accumulation predictions in my next post on Monday afternoon.

Forecast:

Friday Night

Mostly cloudy and breezy. There is the chance of a snow flurry. Probability of precipitation 30%. Little or no accumulation. Low temperatures in the mid 20s. Westerly winds at 10 – 20 mph, 15 – 25 mph over the elevated terrain.

Saturday

A mix of sun and clouds early, with the most sun in South County, then becoming mostly cloudy. Remaining breezy and seasonably cold. Slight chance of a snow flurry. High temperatures in the low 30s in the lower elevations of central and northern Berkshire (e.g., Pittsfield, Adams, North Adams, Williamstown), mid 30s in South County (e.g., Great Barrington, Sheffield, Stockbridge), upper 20s to near 30 over the elevated terrain (e.g. Savory, Peru, Windsor, Becket, Otis). Westerly winds at 10 – 20 mph, diminishing late.

Saturday Night

Becoming partly cloudy with less of a breeze. There is still the slight chance of a flurry. Low temperatures in the low 20s, near 20 over the elevated terrain. Southwesterly winds at 5 – 10 mph.

Sunday

A mix of sun and clouds but likely more clouds than sun. Still the chance of a flurry. High temperatures in the low 30s, mid 30s over the lower elevations of South County and near 30 over the elevated terrain. Southwesterly winds at 5 – 10 mph, becoming westerly.

Sunday Night and Monday

Partly cloudy and colder. Low Sunday night in the mid teens, low teens over the elevated terrain. High Monday in the mid 20s over the lower elevations of central and northern Berkshire, upper 20s in South County and low 20s over the elevated terrain. Light northwesterly winds overnight, becoming 5 – 15 mph by Monday afternoon.

Berkshire County Forecast – Tuesday, January 24

Posted at 3:00 pm

Summary and Analysis:

Because classes at BCC were cancelled today I have time for a bit longer post than usual so, if you are not in the mood for a little lecture then feel free to skip down to the forecast…..

Berkshire County is being impacted by a very strange “noreaster” for this time of year. This resulted in a prolonged period of sleet (ice pellets) for most of the county last night with 1 – 2″ of accumulation. There was some snow mixed in along the higher ridges in the northeastern portions of the county, but for the most part, there was no snow from a low pressure system that, in a normal winter pattern, would have given us all snow, on the order of 6 – 12″ or so. Is this strange scenario made more likely by the changes in the atmospheric circulation pattern produced by global warming? Probably…..

What strange pattern am I talking about? Well, what we call the polar front, which separates very cold arctic air from milder subtropical air, and along which the main jet stream tends to form, is displaced well to the north from its usual location, into north-central Canada. In fact, temperatures are in the 30s along the southern portion of Hudson Bay and as “warm” as the single digits in northern Canada. For perspective, temperatures in northern Canada are usually in the 20s or 30s “below” zero in January. The polar front usually meanders along the northern tier of the U.S. this time of year. This displacement of the polar front explains the unusually mild weather we have seen recently. As a result of this displacement, a second front/jet stream has developed separating cool/mild air over the northern and central U.S. from warm subtropical air to the south. This is sometimes referred to as a “subtropical” jet.

Our midlatitude storm systems, identified as surface low pressure, develop along these fronts, underneath the jet stream. In particular, they develop along the eastern margin of the troughs in the wave pattern the develops along these fronts. The north-south (meridional) temperature gradient along these fronts determines how strong the jet stream will be and, since the storms derive their energy from the energy of their jet stream, the stronger the jet stream, the stronger the potential storm.

Normally, the polar front has the steepest temperature gradient and thus the stronger jet stream. Presently, the opposite is the case and the “noreaster” which developed along the Mid-Atlantic coast yesterday formed along the eastern edge of a trough in the subtropical jet. Just a note about the term “noreaster”…. It is the name given to a strong low pressure system along the East Coast of the U.S. It was given this name by sailors and fisherman along the New England coast back in the 1800s because, since winds circulate counterclockwise around low pressure (in the NH), they knew that if winds were freshening out of the northeast there was a big winter storm moving up the coast.

In any case, since all of the really cold air is displaced well to the north, temperatures at the surface and up to about 10,000 feet have been above freezing for the past week or so. If the “noreaster” had formed along the polar front (as is usually the case) and taken the track it is taking, to our south and east, the air over us would have been more than cold enough for us to get a snowstorm. With this present, unusual scenario, with all of the above freezing air above us, this should have been a plain old rainstorm. However, surface high pressure system developed well to our north, in northeastern Canada, along the polar front over the weekend. Clockwise circulation around this surface system brought air that was just cold enough (below freezing) from the northeast so that we developed a layer of below freezing air up to about 5000 feet with above freezing air above that (where the precipitation was forming). So rain fell through a thick layer of cold air and froze into ice pellets (sleet).

Berkshire County short-term

So, how do things progress from here. The storm will move northeast across Cape Cod and into the Gulf of Maine overnight. A band of precipitation is wrapping around the backside of the low and will move across Berkshire County this evening. The county should see a mixture of sleet and rain in the lower elevations, with sleet and freezing rain over the elevated terrain where the temperature has remained below freezing. The precipitation should be light this afternoon but will pick up in intensity this evening. By around 10 pm, enough cold air will have wrapped around the system on northwesterly winds to change the back edge of the precipitation to snow. Snow should around midnight or shortly thereafter. Most likely accumulations are a dusting to 1″ with a few spots over the higher terrain seeing as much as 2″. Wednesday will be a tranquil day, with a mixture of clouds and sun and temperatures up into the 30s, as the low moves away into the Canadian Maritimes.

Berkshire County long-term

As the low moves away on Wednesday, a trough in the polar front wave pattern will deepen and move eastward from the western U.S. The eastern edge of the trough will move into our region on Thursday as a cold front. The frontal passage will generate, first some rain showers Wednesday night into Thursday morning, changing to snow showers Thursday afternoon. The trough will then broaden and stall over the central and eastern U.S. for several days. As a result, we will see a return to average, to slightly below average temperatures into next week. There will be some intermittent lake-effect and lake-enhanced snow flurries and snow showers brought into the county on west-northwest winds from Thursday night into the weekend. Because the trough is broad, and the eastern edge will be well off the coast, any storms that develop look to be too far off the coast to give us significant snow for awhile.

Berkshire County Forecast:

Tuesday Night

A mixture of sleet and rain during the evening in the lower elevations, sleet and freezing rain over the elevated terrain. Up to 0.5″ of sleet and 0.25″ of freezing rain over the elevated terrain. The precipitation will likely change to snow by around 9 or 10 pm and then end around midnight. Snow accumulations a dusting to 1″ with as much as 2″ in a few spots over the highest terrain. Probability of precipitation near 100%. Low temperatures in the upper 20s to near 30, mid to upper 20s over the elevated terrain. Northwesterly winds at 10 – 15 mph.

Wednesday

A mixture of clouds and sun. High temperatures in the mid 30s in the lower elevations of central and northern Berkshire, upper 30s in South County and low to mid 30s over the elevated terrain. West-northwest winds at 10 – 15 mph early, diminishing to 5 – 10 mph during the afternoon.

Wednesday Night

Partly to mostly cloudy. There is a chance of rain showers after midnight. Low temperatures near 30 during the evening and then rising through the 30s overnight. Light southwesterly winds in the evening, becoming southerly after midnight.

Thursday

Mostly cloudy with rain showers possible through early afternoon changing to snow showers late. It will be mild, with high temperatures rising into the upper 30s to low 40s by early afternoon. It will turn blustery and colder late, with temperatures falling through the 30s. Southwesterly winds at 5 – 10 mph becoming west-northwesterly at 10 – 15 mph with higher gusts late.

Berkshire County Forecast – Thursday, January 12

I will be on vacation next week so this will be the last forecast until Monday, January 23.

Summary and Analysis:

A trough in the upper-level wave pattern is propagating slowly eastward toward the Northeast this afternoon. A cold front at the leading edge of this trough is lifting the mild, moist air over us as it moves eastward, thus the rain this afternoon……

Just a minor digression here….. When I mention a front this time of year it is usually a surface representation of what we call the polar front, which is where the strongest temperature gradient in the Northern Hemisphere is located, separating very cold air to the north from much warmer air to the south. The jet stream forms at upper-levels along this polar front, the strong winds being generated by a steep pressure gradient created by the temperature gradient (warm air is lighter than cold air and pressure is just the weight of the air above a point). We name the surface fronts (surface representation of this polar front) either a cold or warm front depending on which way the polar front is moving. If the cold air is advancing (polar front moving south and east, at the leading edge of a trough in the wave pattern of the polar front) it is called a cold front. If warm air is advancing (polar front moving north and east, at the leading edge of a ridge in the wave pattern), we call it a warm front. When a cold front passes, the cold air within the trough, north of the polar front, moves in and temperatures drop. The opposite occurs after a warm front passes, the warm air to the south of the polar front (associated with the ridge) moves in and temperatures rise…..

……The cold front will move through this evening and temperatures will drop precipitously overnight. It will also become windy as the pressure gradient steepens. This pressure gradient is due to strong surface high pressure associated with the western side of the trough building eastward. As a result, it will turn dry but windy and much colder tonight into the weekend. As the trough propagates eastward over the weekend the surface high pressure system will build over the region. This will result in beautiful winter days with seasonable temperatures on Sunday and Monday. The only fly in the ointment is on Saturday. The southern edge of the trough, represented as a stationary front (polar front), will be located over the Middle Atlantic states. Warmer air and moisture overriding this front will be creating cloud cover, with snow and ice over southern PA, MD and NJ Saturday morning. This precipitation, in the form of snow may make it far enough north to give Berkshire County a snow shower late in the day, but I believe it is more likely that we will just have a cloudy and cold day and will stay dry.

Unfortunately, if you are either a snow or winter lover, fortunately if you don’t like cold and snow, the trough will lift out early next week and a broad ridge in the wave pattern will build over almost the entire US, with the polar front shifting north well into Canada. As a result, temperatures will again become unseasonably mild midweek, probably through next weekend. Any precipitation that falls during that time will be in the form of rain.

Berkshire County Forecast

Thursday Night

A few lingering light showers early this evening, then remaining mostly cloudy overnight. It will turn windy and much colder. There is the chance of a snow flurry or snow shower toward morning with little or no accumulation. Temperatures will be near 50 into the lower 50s this evening. Temperatures will start a precipitous drop from north to south beginning about 11 pm with temperatures falling into the upper 20s to near 30, mid 20s over the elevated terrain, by morning. Southwesterly winds at 10 – 15 mph early will shift to west-northwesterly late in the evening and increase to 10 – 20 mph, 15 -25 mph over the elevated terrain.

Friday

Mostly cloudy with the chance of a flurry or snow shower early then becoming mostly sunny. It will be windy and much colder than previous days. Probability of precipitation 30% early, little or no snow accumulation. Temperatures will hold steady in the upper 20s to near 30 in the lower elevations of central and northern Berkshire (e.g. Pittsfield, North Adams), low 30s over the lower elevations of South County (e.g. Great Barrington), mid 20s over the elevated terrain into early afternoon, then fall through the 20s during the afternoon. West-northwest winds at 15 – 25 mph. Wind chill temperatures in the teens during the afternoon.

Friday Night

Partly cloudy and cold with diminishing winds. Low temperatures in the mid to upper single digits, near 10 in South County, mid single digits over the elevated terrain. Northwesterly winds at 10 – 15 mph in the evening, becoming light after midnight.

Saturday

Mostly cloudy and cold. There is the chance of a snow shower late. Probability of precipitation 30%. Little or no accumulation. High temperatures in the mid 20s over the lower elevations of central and northern Berkshire, mid to upper 20s in South County, and low 20s over the elevated terrain. Light south-southwesterly winds.

Saturday Night

Chance of a flurry or snow shower early, then clearing skies and not as cold. Low temperatures in the mid to upper teens. Light south-southwesterly winds becoming northwesterly at 5 – 10 mph after midnight.

Sunday

Mostly sunny with seasonable temperatures and a light northwesterly breeze. High temperatures near 30, low 30s in the lower elevations of South County and mid to upper 20s over the elevated terrain. Northwesterly winds at 5 – 10 mph.

 

Berkshire County Forecast – Tuesday, January 10

Posted 4:00 pm

Summary:

It will be unseasonably mild for the next few days with a few bouts of, mostly, rain showers. Temperatures should rise above freezing for all but the highest elevations this evening and then stay above freezing into Friday. Some snow showers, or a short period of light snow, is likely late this afternoon and this evening. Snowfall totals should be light, a dusting to as much as 1/2″ over the elevated terrain. It should then remain overcast but dry until about 1 am. There will then be a line of steadier, heavier precipitation moving through between about 1 and 3 am. This will likely be rain, about 0.20″, in all but the highest elevations. Above about 1500 feet the precipitation may fall as wet snow. If snow does fall, these higher elevations will likely receive about 1/2″ – 1″ with up to 2″ in the highest elevations.

Wednesday should see variable amounts of clouds and sun. It will be dry and unseasonably mild, with temperatures well up into the 40s. It will then turn overcast again Wednesday night and remain quite mild, with a few rain showers after midnight. It will remain cloudy and mild Thursday, with temperatures once again well up into the 40s. There will only be a little drizzle or a light shower or two during the morning with a better chance of showers during the afternoon as a stronger cold front moves through. This will set the stage for dropping temperatures but drier weather, with temperatures dropping through the 30s Thursday night with seasonably cold temperatures Friday through the weekend. There could be a little light snow Saturday night as the polar front, stalled to our south, inches back toward the region but snowfall should be light, on the order of a dusting to 2″ at most.

Analysis:

Somewhat complex but weak low pressure systems will move through over the next few days as a weak portion of the polar front moves back and forth over the region. As a result, we will see unseasonably mild weather with bouts of, mostly rain, showers. As of this afternoon, a surface low pressure system is moving northeastward through the Great Lakes. It will drag its associated warm front through this evening. There will likely be a few snow showers or a period of light snow associated with this frontal passage. Accumulations should be light, on the order of a dusting to 1/2″. This low’s trailing cool front will then move through after midnight with a steadier period of precipitation between 1 and 5 am. This will be rain in most areas but the precipitation could remain as snow above 1500 feet. Expect 1/2″ to as much as 2″ in these higher elevations. The front will then stall to our south and then move back as a warm front on Wednesday and Wednesday night. We will see a few light rain showers as it passes after midnight Wednesday night.

A deeper trough in the upper-level wave pattern will finally upropagate eastward, with a surface cold front along the leading edge moving through Thursday evening. Surface high pressure will build into the region during the day on Friday so we will likely see some sun but it will be breezy and seasonably cold. The trough then flattens out and the polar front stalls to our south on Saturday. A weak disturbance propagation along the front to our south could bring us a little light snow Saturday evening but then high pressure should build back in for Sunday, with a good amount of sun and seasonably cold temperatures.

Berkshire County Forecast:

Tuesday Night

Overcast, quite breezy, and much milder than previous nights. Snow showers or a period of light snow are likely early this evening, ending by 9 pm. A steadier period of precipitation, mostly rain, will occur between 1 and 5 am. This will likely be snow above 1500 feet or so. Probability of precipitation 60% in the early evening, near 100% after midnight. Rainfall totals between 0.20″ and 0.25″. Snowfall totals a dusting to 1/2″ in the lower elevations during the evening, 1/2″ to 2″ above 1500 feet. Temperatures rising to near 40 over the lower elevations, mid 30s over the elevated terrain. Southerly winds at 15 – 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph, particularly over the elevated terrain.

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy early then becoming partly cloudy. It will be unseasonably mild. High temperatures in the mid 40s over the lower elevations (e.g., Pittsfield, North Adams), upper 40s in the lower elevations of South County (e.g. Great Barrington), low 40s over the elevated terrain. Southwesterly winds at 5 – 15 mph early, becoming light during the afternoon.

Wednesday Night

Increasing clouds during the evening. Overcast and mild with a few light rain showers likely after midnight. Probability of precipitation 60%. Likely rainfall 0.10″. Low temperatures generally in the mid to upper 30s. Southerly winds increasing to 10 – 15 mph.

Thursday

Cloudy, breezy and unseasonably mild. There could be a little drizzle or a light rain shower in the morning. Rain showers are likely during the afternoon. Precipitation probability will increase from south to north (greatest probability in North County) and as the afternoon progresses. High temperatures near 50 in most locations. South-southwesterly winds at 10 – 15 mph.

Berkshire County Forecast – Friday, January 6

Posted 3:30 pm

Summary:

A surface low pressure system will develop off the Southeast US coast overnight tonight and then move up along the coast, but offshore, during the day on Saturday. It will intensify as it moves to a position south and east of Cape Cod Saturday evening and then into the Canadian Maritime region Saturday night and Sunday. This storm will bring heavy snow to the Southeast and parts of the Mid-Atlantic, with a wide swath of 6 -12″ from northern SC through NC and into eastern VA. There could even be up to 15″ along the central coast of VA. As the storm moves by Cape Cod it is also likely to dump 6 – 12″ in southeastern New England, with up to 18″ on Cape Cod on Saturday and Saturday evening. We should be on the western edge of the snow shield during the day on Saturday. As of this afternoon it looks like snow should begin here during the afternoon and end during the evening. The snow should be generally light. Most likely accumulations are 1 – 3″, with the least in northwestern parts of the county and the most in southeastern portions. Since we are projected to be at the western edge of the precipitation, any shift in the projected track of the storm will have a significant impact on accumulations. If the storm tracks 50 miles to the east, we will only get a dusting, or no snow at all. If the storm tracks further west we could get 3 – 5″.

Analysis:

The broad trough in the jet stream wave pattern, and its associated cold weather, continues to cover the entire northern tier of states. This trough will finally begin to propagate slowly eastward this weekend. As this occurs, the nadir of the trough, and thus the coldest air will become centered over New England on Sunday. This will result in significantly below normal temperatures for Berkshire County through Monday. As the coastal storm rides northeastward along the eastern edge of this trough we will likely see some light snow Saturday afternoon and evening (see summary). Once the surface low moves into the Canadian Maritime on Sunday, moist flow circulating around the low, will be enhanced by the Great Lakes and lifted by our elevated terrain. As a result, we are likely to see scattered snow showers here on Sunday as well.

The trough then lifts to the northeast as the wave pattern flattens out (becomes zonally [west-east] oriented) for mid to late week. As a result, milder air will move back in to the county and temperatures will rise to above average, well into the 30s and possibly even the 40s Wednesday through Friday. The advance of this warmer air will be represented by a surface warm front to our south on Tuesday. This warm front will be extending eastward from a surface low moving into the Great Lakes along the eastern edge of the next ripple (trough) in the jet stream. As the warmer air overrides colder air at the surface on Tuesday and Tuesday night, light snow will likely break out late Tuesday but should change to sleet, freezing rain, and eventually rain Thursday evening and overnight.

Berkshire County Forecast:

Friday Night

Partly cloudy this evening, then increasing clouds after midnight, becoming overcast by morning. It will be quite cold, with low temperatures in the upper single digits in most of the lower elevations, near 10 in South County (e.g. Great Barrington) and mid single digits over the elevated terrain. Wind chill temperatures dropping to near zero. West-northwest winds at 5 – 10 mph, becoming light by morning.

Saturday

Overcast and cold. Light snow likely developing during the afternoon, ending during the evening. Probability of precipitation 60% in North County, 70% in central Berkshire and southwestern portions and 80% in southeastern portions (e.g. Otis, Becket). Most likely accumulations by the time the snow tapers off in the evening, a dusting to 1″ in the lower elevations of North County, including Williamstown, Adams and North Adams; 1 – 2″ over the elevated terrain to the east (e.g. Savoy and Florida); 1 – 2″ in the lower elevations of central and southwestern Berkshire, including Pittsfield, Great Barrington, Stockbridge, Lee, Lenox and Sheffield; 1 – 3″ in the elevated terrain of central and southern Berkshire, including Windsor, Peru, Otis, Becket and Sandisfield, with the greatest amounts most likely in the southeastern corner of the county. High temperatures in the mid to upper teens in the lower elevations of central Berkshire and North County, near 20 in South County and mid teens over the elevated terrain. Northerly winds at 5 – 10 mph.

Saturday Night

Any light snow ending in the evening. Remaining mostly cloudy and cold with scattered snow flurries or snow showers overnight. Low temperatures in the upper single digits in the lower elevations, near 10 in South County and mid single digits over the elevated terrain. Wind chill temperatures dropping to near zero. West-northwesterly winds at 5 – 10 mph.

Sunday

Mostly cloudy and cold with scattered snow flurries and snow showers. Becoming breezy in the afternoon. A dusting to 1/2″ accumulation possible in some locations. High temperatures in the mid teens in the lower elevations of central and northern portions, upper teens in the lower elevations to the south and low teens over the elevated terrain. West-northwest winds at 5 – 10 mph in the morning, increasing to 10 – 20 mph in the afternoon.

 

Berkshire County Forecast – Thursday, January 5

Posted at 4:30 pm

The forecast looks fairly similar to yesterday so I will give a quick update today and a more detailed weekend forecast tomorrow afternoon. It still looks like snow showers or light snow, associated with a coastal low developing and sliding by to our south and east, will be likely after midnight. Any accumulations should be on the order of a dusting to 1″. Any snow should end by morning as the low slides off the Southern New England coast and out to sea.

All of the models have the next low developing along the eastern edge of our upper-level trough hugging the coast more than previous runs, just as occurred with tonights storm. Right now the larger-scale global models, both the GFS (US) and ECMWF (European) models still have the low tracking far enough offshore to only give us a dusting to 1″, if anything, Saturday afternoon and night. However, the high resolution models running this afternoon are giving us on the order of 2 – 4″. We will have to see how things progress over the next 24 hours. I will give an update with my more detailed forecast tomorrow afternoon.

It still looks like below normal temperatures into Tuesday morning, with the coldest days being Sunday and Monday. More details to come tomorrow…..

Berkshire County Forecast – Wednesday, January 4

Posted at 4:00 pm

Summary:

Just a quick update, since there is little change from yesterday. The high resolution models are indicating a few snow showers and squalls will move through the county between 5 and 6 pm today, leaving a dusting to 1/2″ in the lower elevations, with up to an inch over the elevated terrain. However, I am not seeing much on radar at this point, so I think the models are overdoing it a bit. In any case, this shower activity represents the leading edge of much colder air. With and after the squall activity winds should increase and become gusty and temperatures should drop rapidly, into the 20s, just after dark. It will then be breezy and colder for the next several days. It still appears that the coastal storms developing along the eastern edge of the upper-level trough should stay to our south and east, even though it appears that the surface low on Thursday night and Friday will hug the coast a bit more than it looked yesterday, bringing a few inches to southeastern-most New England. Berkshire County could see a quick burst of light snow late Thursday night into Friday morning as the storm develops but any accumulations will be quite light, a dusting to an inch. It will become quite cold on Sunday and Monday as the center of the trough moves over New England and temperatures will likely drop to near, or even below zero, with wind chills well below zero on Sunday night and Monday morning.

Berkshire County Forecast

Wednesday Night

A brief burst of early evening snow shower and squall activity is possible, ending by 6 or 7 pm. Some off and on lake-effect snow shower activity could persist through the evening in North County. It will turn breezy and much colder. Skies will remain mostly cloudy in central and northern Berkshire, with partial clearing in South County. Skies should clear county wide by morning. Probability of precipitation during the evening 50% in North County, 40% in the remainder of the county. Any snow accumulation should be limited to a dusting to 1/2″ in the lower elevations with up to 1″ over the elevated terrain, particularly in North County. Low temperatures in the mid to upper teens in the lower elevations, low to mid teens over the elevated terrain. West winds at 10 – 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Wind chill temperatures in the single digits by morning.

Thursday

Early morning sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Mostly cloudy in the afternoon. Breezy and colder. High temperatures in the mid 20s in the lower elevations of central and northern Berkshire, upper 20s in South County, low 20s over the elevated terrain. Westerly winds at 10 – 20 mph, diminishing late. Wind chill temperatures in the single digits to teens.

Thursday Night

Overcast and cold with lighter winds. There is the chance of snow showers or a little light snow developing after midnight, particularly in South County. Probability of precipitation 50% in South County, 40% elsewhere. Any accumulations should be on the order of a dusting to 1″. Low temperatures in the upper teens in the lower elevations, mid teens over the elevated terrain. West-southwesterly winds at 5 – 10 mph during the evening, becoming light after midnight.

Friday

Any early light snow should end by mid to late morning. Partial clearing in the afternoon. Remaining cold. High temperatures in the low to mid 20s in the lower elevations, mid 20s in South County, low 20s over the elevated terrain. West-northwesterly winds at 5 – 10 mph.

Berkshire County Forecast – Tuesday, January 3

Posted at 3:50 pm

Summary and Analysis:

A complex, but relatively weak area of surface low pressure is moving through the Northeast this afternoon and evening, with one low centered over western PA and a second off the NJ coast. A broad and dominant trough in the jet stream wave pattern is centered over western Canada and the northern Great Plains, with the eastern edge of this trough located over the western Great Lakes. As the trough moved south from Canada the past few days, a concurrent ridge in the upper-level wave pattern developed over the Eastern US, with mild air surging northward into eastern portions of the Midwest and the East Coast with temperatures now above freezing in most of the Midwest, the entire Great Lakes, and virtually all of the East Coast except for northern Maine and the highest elevations of the elevated terrain.  As a result, virtually all of the precipitation associated with this broad area of surface low pressure is falling in the form of rain. As of 3 pm, all reporting stations in Berkshire County are above freezing, except for Savoy, where the temperature is 32 ºF.   Therefore, any threat for frozen precipitation for Berkshire County for the next 24 hours should be limited to the highest elevations of North County, where there could still be some freezing rain.

Steady rain will continue across the county through the evening, although rain should lighten up for a few hours during the late evening, ending by the early morning hours, around 2 am or so. As the low pressure system moves into eastern Canada and intensifies, the counter-clockwise circulation around the low will have a number of impacts for us. First of all, the eastern edge of the previously described upper-level trough will surge eastward and the cold front (polar front) associated with it will move across the county tomorrow. As a result, temperatures will start out fairly mild, but begin to drop during the afternoon, and particularly tomorrow (Wednesday) night. In addition, the pressure gradient will increase as the low deepens, so it will become quite breezy with wind chills dropping into the single digits by Thursday morning. Also, moisture circulating around the low, being lifted by the advancing cold front and our elevated terrain will result in scattered snow showers, and even a few squalls, Wednesday afternoon and evening. There will be some lake-effect snow but with winds more out of the west-southwest any snow showers should be limited to southern VT on Thursday.

The upper-level trough will continue to broaden, with the polar front along its southern edge displaced well to our south, and be reinforced by cold disturbances moving out of Canada, so that the cold air associated with this feature will cover the entire northern tier of the US for several days, right through the weekend and into early next week. Therefore, temperatures will be below normal in Berkshire County right into early next week, with the coldest temperatures over the weekend. In fact we likely will not see above freezing temperatures until mid-week next week. Unfortunately for snow lovers, and all of the businesses in the county which depend upon it, there is unlikely to be much natural snow, as all of the surface lows which develop along the eastern edge of the trough, one on Friday, and a few over the weekend, should track out to sea to our south and east. At least it will be cold enough for the ski areas to make snow…..

Berkshire County Forecast

Tuesday Night

Steady rain early this evening, will likely lighten up and become more intermittent mid to late evening and end by 2 am or so. There may still be a few pockets of freezing rain over the highest terrain of North County. Remaining overcast once the rain ends. Probability of precipitation near 100%. Rainfall totals around 0.50″ this afternoon and evening. Temperatures holding steady in the mid 30s, low 30s over the highest terrain. Northeasterly winds at 5 – 10 mph this evening, becoming light westerly after midnight.

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy and cool. A few, widely scattered, light flurries or sprinkles are possible. Late afternoon it will become breezy and colder with a snow shower or squall more likely toward evening. Little or no accumulation for most locations with a quick dusting possible in any squalls that develop. Probability of precipitation 40%. Temperatures will rise only slightly with highs in the late morning to early afternoon in the mid to upper 30s in most locations, near 40 in the lower elevations of South County, and low to mid 30s over the elevated terrain. Light west-southwesterly winds in the morning becoming westerly at 10 – 15 mph in the afternoon, with a few higher gusts in any snow squalls which develop.

Wednesday Night

Variably cloudy, breezy and much colder. Low temperatures in the mid to upper teens, low teens over the elevated terrain. West-southwesterly winds at 10 – 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Wind chills dropping into the single digits.

Thursday

Some early morning sunshine, otherwise mostly cloudy, breezy and cold. High temperatures in the mid 20s in the lower elevations of central and northern Berkshire, upper 20s in the lower elevations of South County and low 20s over the elevated terrain. West-southwesterly winds at 10 – 20 mph, diminishing later in the afternoon.