Posted at 2:30 pm, Friday 12/30

Summary and Analysis:

Yesterday’s storm has moved into the Canadian Maritime and the surface low has become quite deep, with central pressure around 965 mb. This is creating a strong pressure gradient which is generating strong west-northwesterly winds across our region. As these cold winds blow across the mild, unfrozen Great Lakes numerous bands of lake-effect snow have developed across New York state and into Berkshire County. A few of these bands contain fairly heavy snow and, in fact, one of these moved across central Berkshire near noon today and dropped a quick inch of snow. These will continue to wave back and forth, north to south and then back to the north again tonight as the snow within them diminishes. An Alberta Clipper type low will move across the Great Lakes and to our north Saturday and Saturday night. The low may be close enough to give Berkshire County a quick dusting of snow Saturday evening, with the greatest likelihood in northern portions. Our weather should be quiet Sunday into Monday as surface high pressure develops over the Northeast.

As evening approaches on Monday there could be some travel issues and this will need to be watched closely over the next few days. Warm air aloft well in advance of an approaching warm front will begin to override cold air near the surface, possibly generating a little light precipitation Monday evening into Tuesday morning. Any precipitation should be quite light but will fall in the form of sleet or freezing rain/drizzle. As the warm front, associated with a surface low moving northward into the Great Lakes. As the warm front moves through on Tuesday afternoon and evening the precipitation will increase in intensity but surface temperatures will likely have moved above freezing by that point so, hopefully, we will see just plain rain.

As the surface low over the Great Lakes moves northeastward it will drag its trailing cold front through our area overnight Tuesday. As a result, it will be colder but dry on Wednesday and Thursday. However, it is beginning to look like the cold front, at the leading edge of a broad trough in the jet stream wave pattern, will stall to our south. One or two surface lows may develop along the front in the Southeast and move northeastward off the Mid-Atlantic coast, the first on Friday and the second over the weekend. If this does occur we could see another snow event (or two). However, this situation is still a week away…..

Berkshire County Forecast:

Friday Night

Partly to mostly cloudy breezy and colder. Scattered snow flurries and snow showers are still possible. Probability of precipitation 50%. Little or no additional snow accumulation. Low temperatures near 20, mid to upper teens over the elevated terrain and low 20s in the lower elevations of South County. Westerly winds at 10 – 15 mph this evening, diminishing after midnight, becoming southwesterly at 5 – 10 mph by morning.

Saturday

Cloudy and seasonably cold, becoming breezy in the afternoon. There is the chance of a snow shower toward evening, particularly in North County. Probability of precipitation 30%. High temperature near 30 in the lower elevations of central and northern Berkshire (including Pittsfield, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown), low 30s in the lower elevations of South County (including Great Barrington and Sheffield) and upper 20s over the elevated terrain. Light southwesterly winds becoming southerly and increasing to 10 – 15 mph in the afternoon.

Saturday Night

A quick burst of light snow or snow showers is likely during the evening, with increasing likelihood as one moves further north in the county. Probability of precipitation 70% in North County, 60% in central Berkshire, and 50% in South County. Any accumulations should be light, on the order of a dusting to 2″. Otherwise, mostly cloudy with near steady temperatures overnight. Low temperatures in the upper 20s, mid 20s over the elevated terrain and near 30 in South County. South-southwesterly winds at 10 – 15 mph in the evening, becoming westerly at 5 – 10 mph toward morning.

Sunday

Mostly cloudy in the morning, clearing skies during the afternoon. High temperature in the low 30s in the lower elevations of central and northern Berkshire, mid 30s in South County, and upper 20s over the elevated terrain.