Our low overcast and small temperature range will persist for the foreseeable future, as a strong temperature inversion in the lower levels of the atmosphere (50°F at 5000 feet) prevents vertical mixing and the low sun angle and cloud cover prevent any heating of the surface. Meanwhile, a weak surface low pressure system over the Midwest will drift slowly northeastward through the eastern Great Lakes over the next few days. The occluded and cold fronts extending southeastward from the low will move through our area Tuesday evening. The associated precipitation will be predominantly in the form of rain. However, surface temperatures will be close to freezing in the higher elevations so there may be some pockets of freezing rain there. 

As a secondary surface low forms along the front junction between the occluded and cold front in the Gulf of Maine on Wednesday, the northwesterly flow around this low will produce some “wrap around” and lake enhanced showers during the afternoon on Wednesday. Temperatures will be cold enough aloft for these to be snow showers but the boundary level temperatures may be warm enough in the lower elevations for wet snow mixed with rain or even plain rain. Even in the elevated terrain snowfall accumulations should be less than an inch.

After this, the polar front (boundary between cold air to the north and warm air to the south), which is weak and zonally oriented (west to east) for this time of year, will stall well to our south, and very weak surface high pressure will build in from the north and west. As a result, temperatures will be seasonable and the weather will be dry until at least Saturday. The inversion will be gone so, hopefully, we will get some sunshine. However, with the jet stream in its weak and zonal form, systems will be weak and, thus, sunshine is unlikely to be bountiful.

It looks like a surface low will develop along the polar front on the Gulf Coast Friday night and early Saturday and then move off the North Carolina coast Saturday night. Right now, it appears that, with the jet stream having such a zonal orientation, the trough in the jet stream wave pattern responsible for generating this storm will remain fairly “flat” and non-amplified so that the storm will have a tendency to move more east than north and well off the coast to our south. However, given that this event is six days away, the track of the low is still uncertain….I plan to update this on Wednesday.

Monday Night

Overcast.

Low temperatures in the mid to upper 20s, upper 20s in South County and mid 20s over the elevated terrain.

Winds light and variable.

Tuesday

Overcast and seasonably cold. There is a chance of a little drizzle or a few sprinkles, particularly during the afternoon. Any light precipitation that falls will likely be freezing drizzle over the elevated terrain and there could even be a few pockets of freezing drizzle in the lower elevations.

High temperatures in the low to mid 30s in Pittsfield, Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams, and Williamstown; mid 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; near 30 to low 30s over the elevated terrain.

Light southeasterly winds.

Tuesday Night

Rain and showers developing during the early evening and continuing off and on throughout the night. Temperatures will be close to freezing in the elevated terrain where the precipitation may fall as freezing rain during the evening hours. There may also be a few spots in the lower elevations in central and northern Berkshire where the precipitation begins as freezing rain as well. Precipitation should become all rain as temperatures rise above freezing after midnight, even over the elevated terrain. Probability of precipitation 90%. Likely rainfall totals 0.25″-0.40″. Likely ice totals over the elevated terrain around 0.10″ in spots.

Steady temperatures in the evening, near freezing over the elevated terrain and low 30s over the lower elevations of central and northern Berkshire and low to mid 30s over the lower elevations of South County. Temperatures should rise above just above freezing in the elevated terrain after midnight so that temperatures should be in the low to mid 30s everywhere by morning. 

Light easterly winds in the evening, shifting to northwesterly by morning.

Wendesday

Overcast with a few scattered rain showers likely early. Some mixed rain and snow showers are likely mid to late afternoon. These showers should be all snow over the elevated terrain and mixed rain and wet snow in the lower elevations. Probability of precipitation 60%. Likely rainfall totals 0.10″ or less and there may be a dusting of snow in spots over the elevated terrain late.

High temperatures in the mid to upper 30s in Pittsfield, Lee and Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; upper 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; low to mid 30s over the elevated terrain. 

Light west-northwesterly winds in the morning, increasing to 5-10 mph in the afternoon.

I am sorry but I will not be posting a forecast today. It is a very difficult forecast that would require a great deal of time input to make accurately and I have a great deal of grading and schoolwork to accomplish today. Sorry again…..

The following forecast is provided by Ryan Vandervoort and Amanda Kerswell  as part of lab work for the Introduction to Meteorology course (ATM-145) under faculty (Joe Kravitz) supervision. The forecast discussion is mine (JK) ……

The polar front and associated jet stream are aligned across the northern U.S., and Berkshire County, in a fairly zonal (flat, west-east configuration). As a result, relatively weak systems will move through fairly quickly, with alternating surface high and low pressure systems through Monday. Monday night into Tuesday and amplifying trough in the jet stream wave pattern will be digging to our west. This will create a significant change to our weather for next week. Surface low pressure will likely develop off the Mid-Atlantic coast in response to this trough. The trough in the wave pattern will then become so amplified that that the wave will “break” and low pressure will become “cut-off” from the main jet stream flow to our north. With this cut-off low over us, essentially what we will have is a cold pool of air aloft spinning counterclockwise (upper-level low pressure) and the surface low which developed in response to this upper-level process stalling somewhere from New York city to Long Island or off the southern New England coast and then weakening and moving slowly northeast. Since the ECMWF (European) model has been consistent with this event, as well as our last storm on Thanksgiving, I am, once again, inclined to believe this model’s scenario, which goes as follows….The low develops off the Mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday morning and moves north and stalls for a time over Long Island/NYC Tuesday night. The low then weakens and moves SLOWLY northeast over the next few days, not reaching the Gulf of Maine until during the day Thursday or Thursday night. It is still too early to tell precipitation type or amounts, in particular since we will be near the rain/snow line and this will be a very complicated system. However, there is the possibility of a heavy snow event, particularly over the elevated terrain sometime from Tuesday through Wednesday. Obviously, I will update this forecast on Monday…..

That being said, we also have some weather issues in the near term. Surface high pressure is departing to our east and a weak surface low pressure system and its associated warm front are approaching from the Midwest. There is cold air at the surface and as the warmer air associated the the warm front overrides this cold air we will receive a mixture of precipitation overnight tonight. After a few scattered light snow showers early this evening, steady precipitation should begin around 8 pm or so. The precipitation should start as snow but turn, fairly rapidly to freezing rain in the lower elevations, where only a coating to an inch (at most) of snow should accumulate. 1-2″ is possible over the elevated terrain to the east where it will likely stay snow a bit longer. After the changeover, freezing rain will change to plain rain in the lower elevations by midnight or so but will likely continue over the elevated terrain. There could be a light coating of ice in the lower elevations before the changeover, with around 0.10″ over the elevated terrain. Since snow will fall first, the roads should be mostly slushy, as opposed to glazed, and there should not be enough ice for widespread power outages. Rain/freezing rain will taper off sometime between 3 and 5 am and there will be a relative pause in the precipitation until it becomes steady again around 9 or 10 am. By that point, temperatures should be above freezing everywhere and we will have off an on rain for most of the day Saturday. Rain may mix with and then change to snow briefly before ending Saturday evening as colder air comes in behind the departing low, but there should only be a coating to perhaps as much as an inch over the elevated terrain. It will then turn breezy and colder and surface high pressure will move in for Sunday, making the second half of the weekend sunny but fairly cold.

Friday Night

A few scattered snow showers early, then a burst of steady snow arriving around 8 pm or so. Snow will change to freezing rain within a few hours. Snow accumulations a coating to 1″ in the lower elevations and up to 2″ over the elevated terrain. Freezing rain will likely change to rain in the lower elevations by the early morning hours but will likely continue over the elevated terrain. Significant ice accumulation is not expected in the lower elevations but about 0.10″ is likely over the elevated terrain. Rain/freezing rain will taper off between 3 and 5 am. Probability of precipitation near 100%. Likely total rainfall (liquid equivalent) 0.25″-0.40″.

Temperatures near freezing this evening will rise above freezing in the lower elevations by midnight or so and low to mid 30s by morning. Temperatures will remain at or near freezing over the elevated terrain.

Easterly winds at 5-10 mph this evening, becoming light southeasterly after midnight.

Saturday

A few scattered light rain showers or drizzle early. Steadier off and on rain developing around 9 or 10 am and continuing throughout the day. Probability of precipitation near 100%. Likely rainfall totals 0.25″-0.50″.

High temperatures in the upper 30s in Pittsfield, Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams, and Williamstown; near 40 in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; mid 30s over the elevated terrain.

Light winds veering from southeasterly early to northwesterly during the afternoon.

Saturday Night

Rain may mix with and briefly change to snow before ending during the evening. A coating of accumulation is possible, with as much as 1″ over the elevated terrain. Skies will remain mostly cloudy, clearing around daybreak, and it will turn breezy and colder.

Low temperatures in the low to mid 20s.

North-northwesterly winds at 5-10 mph in the evening, increasing to 10-15 mph after midnight.

Sunday

Sunny but a bit breezy and rather cold.

High temperatures in the upper 20s to near 30 in Pittsfield, Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; near 30 to low 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; mid 20s over the elevated terrain.

North-northwesterly wind at 10-15 mph, decreasing to 5-10 mph during the afternoon.

The following forecast is provided by Cindy Bird and Connor Lein  as part of lab work for the Introduction to Meteorology course (ATM-145) under faculty (Joe Kravitz) supervision. The forecast discussion is mine (JK) ……

Out weather will be relatively tranquil, with seasonable temperatures, for the next two days, as surface high pressure builds in from the Midwest tonight and Thursday and then crests over the region Thursday night. As the high approaches, cold west-northwesterly winds blowing across the Great Lakes will generate a few lake-effect snow bands tonight and tomorrow. However, it looks like nothing more than a few flurries for Berkshire County as these bands rotate through. The high will move to our east on Friday as a weak surface low pressure system and its associated warm front move through Friday night and Saturday. Precipitation from that event should be fairly similar to what we saw last night and today, with relatively light snow changing to sleet and freezing rain Friday night, transitioning to plain rain by Saturday morning. Saturday looks like a rainy day as the low lolligags along through.

The long-range models suggest surface high pressure will build in briefly for Sunday, so part of the weekend should be salvaged. However, both the U.S. (GFS) and European (ECMWF) models develop a coastal low pressure system in response to an amplifying trough in the jet stream wave pattern for early next week. The timing and appearance of this scenario looks complicated, so I will update this on Friday. However, it looks like there is the possibility for at least some snow for Berkshire County for the Monday through Tuesday period.

Wednesday Night

Variable cloudiness, breezy and seasonably cold. There is the chance of a few scattered snow flurries. Probability of precipitation 30%. There should be nothing more than a light dusting in a few isolated spots over the higher terrain.

Low temperatures in the mid 20s, low 20s over the elevated terrain.

West-northwesterly winds at 10-15 mph.

Thursday

Mostly sunny and breezy early. Becoming mostly cloudy by mid-morning. Colder. There is the slight chance of a snow flurry during the early to mid-afternoon. Probability of precipitation 20%. No snow accumulation expected. Winds should lighten during the afternoon and skies will likely clear late.

High temperatures near 30 in Pittsfield, Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams, and Williamstown; low 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; mid to upper 20s over the elevated terrain.

West-northwesterly winds at 10-15 mph in the morning, decreasing to 5-10 mph during the afternoon.

Thursday Night

Mostly clear, calm and cold.

Low temperatures in the mid teens.

Clam winds.

Friday

Increasing cloudiness with the slight chance of a light snow shower or flurry late.

High temperatures in the low 30s Pittsfield, Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; low to mid 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; near 30 over the elevated terrain.

East-southeasterly winds at 5-10 mph.