The following forecast is provided by Shai Lev as part of lab work for the Introduction to Meteorology course (ATM-145) under faculty (Joe Kravitz) supervision. The forecast discussion is mine (JK) ……

A cold front at the leading edge of a deep trough in the jet stream wave pattern moved through today with a few showers accompanied by a steep drop in temperatures from about 60°F to 42°F within a 2 hour period late morning into early afternoon. As this cold trough moves over the region our temperatures will fall and remain below average through the weekend. Temperatures tonight will fall into the mid 20s with highs tomorrow generally in the low 40s. As the coldest pool of air within the trough approaches Thursday, a second “arctic” cold front at its leading edge will plow through Thursday evening with a line of snow showers and snow squalls. Expected accumulations are a dusting in most places, to as much as an inch in some heavier squalls over the elevated terrain. After this front passes, a weak surface low will develop along it. However, this low should pass off the coast well to our east and will likely not impact us.

Once this “arctic” front passes through, temperatures will turn even colder, with highs in the 30s Friday through Sunday and overnight lows near 20. On Monday, it looks like a stronger surface low will develop along the eastern margin of the trough and ride northeastward toward Berkshire County. The computer models have been struggling with consistency with this storm, however, it looks to me like we are most likely to get a mixture of precipitation, probably mostly rain as the low passes right over us, or at least very close to the coast, allowing “milder” air to move in off the ocean. However, this event is still 5 days away so I will update this with my Friday forecast.

Wednesday Night

Mostly clear and colder. Some cloudiness will build in toward daybreak.

Low temperatures in the mid 20s, some low 20s over the elevated terrain.

Northwesterly winds at 5-10 mph, becoming light after midnight.

Thursday

Partly cloudy early, then increasing clouds and cooler than previous days.

High temperatures near 40 to the low 40s in Pittsfield, Lee, Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams, and Williamstown; low 40s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; upper 30s over the elevated terrain.

Northwesterly winds at 5-10 mph in the morning, becoming light west-northwesterly in the afternoon.

Thursday Night

Mostly cloudy and seasonably cold. A band of snow showers with some embedded snow squalls is likely late in the evening. The most likely time period is between 9 pm and 1 am. Probability of precipitation 70%. Likely snowfall totals a dusting to 1″. Some clearing toward daybreak.

Low temperatures in the mid 20s.

Northwesterly winds at 5-10 mph.

Friday

A mix of clouds and sun and cold.

High temperatures in the mid 30s in Pittsfield, Lee and Stockbridge, Adams, North Adams and Williamstown; mid to upper 30s in Great Barrington and Sheffield and; low 30s over the elevated terrain. 

West-northwesterly winds at 5-10 mph.